Liam Duckstein
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Royale Union SG welcome Hapoel Beer Sheva for Matchday 3 of the Europa League League Phase, though “welcome” needs a small footnote here. The Belgian side’s own ground does not meet UEFA’s hosting requirements for this stage, so the game gets played at the Merkur Spielarena in Dusseldorf, a quirky detail that gives this fixture a genuinely neutral feel despite Union carrying home status on paper.
Union sit mid-table in the standings with four points from two games, Hapoel are further down with just one point, and the bookmakers have made the Belgians big favourites. We predict there is more nuance in this one than the odds suggest, and we break down why below.
Watch Darius Olaru for Union SG. He has popped up in both midfield phases for David Hubert’s side and tends to be the man who shifts the ball from deep areas into the final third. On the other side, Forson Amankwah has been Hapoel’s most direct creative outlet recently, with two goals and an assist across his last three outings, more end product than any other Hapoel midfielder on the sheet.
Hot stat: Hapoel Beer Sheva picked up 8 yellow cards and committed 44 fouls across their last five matches, more than double Union SG’s tally of 2 cards and 26 fouls. That kind of discipline gap against a possession-heavy Union side could easily hand away set-piece chances they cannot afford to give up.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Merkur Spielarena, Dusseldorf |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:45 CEST |
Royale Union SG vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
Union SG go into this match unbeaten in nine of their last ten outings across competitions, with just one loss buried in that run. Hapoel’s recent form looks busier on paper, three wins in their last four, but the quality of opposition has been lower and their away form in continental competition remains shaky. We predict Union SG win this one, though perhaps not by the wide margin the 72% market implied probability suggests.
Union’s passing numbers tell a story of control: 987 passes at 794 accurate attempts across their last five games, a clean platform to build from. Hapoel actually completed more raw passes in the same stretch (1802 at 1573 accurate), but a lot of that volume came against weaker domestic sides rather than European competition. Where Hapoel really lag is discipline, 44 fouls and 8 cards compared to Union’s 26 fouls and 2 cards, and that gap tends to translate into fewer clean spells of possession and more set-piece exposure.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Royale Union SG to win with BTTS (not a clean sheet) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Union SG’s most recent outing was a comfortable 3-0 win over Nijlen, a routine result against a far weaker side. The more telling game came before that, a 1-1 draw at home to Real Sociedad. In our preview of Royale Union SG vs Real Sociedad we leaned toward a home win with goals at both ends, and the 1-1 scoreline went against that call, a reminder that Union can still be pegged back even in matches they dominate territorially.
Hapoel Beer Sheva’s last match ended in a 2-1 win over Hapoel Jerusalem, a result that papered over a rougher European night just before it. That prior fixture saw them lose 1-2 to AZ Alkmaar. In our preview of AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva we called for goals from both sides and the total climbing past 2.5 rather than backing AZ outright, and the eventual 1-2 scoreline delivered exactly that shape.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Royale Union SG and Hapoel Beer Sheva have no recent competitive meetings on record ahead of this fixture. There simply is no shared history between these two clubs to draw from here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Royale Union SG vs Hapoel Beer Sheva stats page for more info.
Hapoel Beer Sheva. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Royale Union SG the favourite
- Moneyline Royale Union SG 1.31 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 8.49
- Draw 5.73
The numbers above come from Pinnacle, generally the sharpest line in the market, and they line up closely with the bookmakers’ average expectation of 72% for a Union win. That price looks tight given Union’s own tendency to draw blanks against well-organised defenses recently, which is partly why we like the BTTS angle alongside the home win rather than a straight moneyline punt.
Possible Starting Lineups
Royale Union SG possible starting eleven
- GK: Hervé Koffi
- DF: Louis Patris, Massire Sylla, Nikki Havenaar, Nohim Chibani
- MF: Kamiel Van De Perre, Darius Olaru, Relebohile Mofokeng, Besfort Zeneli, Guilherme Smith
- FW: Mateo Biondic
Hubert tends to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape here, with Van De Perre and Olaru screening the back four while Mofokeng and Zeneli stretch play from wide areas. Biondic leads the line and has been the most involved forward for shot volume across the recent run, making him the player most likely to test Marciano early.
Hapoel Beer Sheva possible starting eleven
- GK: Ofir Marciano
- DF: Miguel Vitor, guy mizrahi, Djibril diop, Itay Rotman
- MF: Eilel Peretz, Lucas de Souza Ventura, Niv Yehoshua, Forson Amankwah
- FW: Igor Zlatanović, Javon East
Kozuch has leaned on a straightforward 4-4-2 recently, and Marciano’s ten saves across his last three starts show he has carried a fair defensive workload already. Zlatanović’s two goals in that stretch make him the forward to watch, with Amankwah expected to supply the service from a deeper midfield slot.
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Royale Union SG. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Union SG’s control of the ball, sharper discipline numbers and better continental form all point toward a home win here. Hapoel have shown they can still find the net against stronger sides, as the AZ Alkmaar game proved, so a clean sheet for Union feels less likely than a scrappy, goal-filled contest. We predict a 2-1 scoreline in Union’s favour, with both teams scoring and the corner count pushing into double figures given Hapoel’s foul-heavy approach inviting set pieces. To be honest, the smarter route here is backing the home win combined with BTTS rather than a straight Union moneyline bet at such a short price.
