Liam Duckstein
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
AZ Alkmaar open their home account in the League Phase against a Hapoel Beer Sheva side that travels to the Netherlands sitting just above them in the 36-team standings. Both clubs lost momentum points on matchday one, AZ fell 0-1 and Hapoel settled for a scoreless draw, yet the Israeli outfit arrives in far better domestic shape having won three of their last four matches. The bookmakers still lean heavily toward the Dutch hosts at 72 percent, but a quick look at recent form suggests this gap might be smaller than the odds imply.
Mexx Meerdink has been AZ’s most reliable attacking outlet lately, netting in recent weeks and leading his side in shot volume among forwards. On the Hapoel side, Forson Amankwah stands out with a goal, an assist and seven shots across his last three appearances, making him the player most likely to cause problems through the middle.
Hot stat: AZ Alkmaar currently sit 25th of 36 teams in the League Phase table with zero points after one round, a surprising spot for a club bookmakers still rate as heavy favourites tonight.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:45 CEST |
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
We predict a tighter contest than the market price suggests. AZ have won just once in their last four matches across all competitions, including a 0-2 home-adjacent loss to Feyenoord and a 0-1 defeat to Sunderland, while Hapoel arrive unbeaten in four with three wins and a draw. Our pick leans toward AZ Alkmaar to win but with goals at both ends, or perhaps even a draw given how shaky the hosts have looked defensively of late.
AZ’s discipline numbers tell part of the story. They have picked up 43 fouls and 6 yellow cards across their last five matches, against 38 fouls and only 4 cards for Hapoel, who also complete a noticeably higher share of their passes, roughly 89 percent compared to AZ’s 83 percent. Hapoel’s tidier possession game and lower foul count could let them control midfield stretches, even away from home, which keeps this fixture from being the one-sided affair the odds imply.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hapoel Beer Sheva to score first |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
AZ Alkmaar’s most recent outing ended in a 0-2 defeat, a result that extends a rough patch of only one win from their last four games. Before that loss they had beaten Telstar 1-0, but sandwiched in between were a 0-1 defeat to Sunderland and a 1-1 draw with Willem II. The pattern points to a team struggling to find consistency in front of goal, scoring just five times across those five matches while conceding regularly, which is why we are cautious about backing them as heavily as the bookmakers do tonight.
Hapoel Beer Sheva head into this one on the back of a 2-0 win over Ironi Tiberias, their third victory in four league outings during the last month. Before that they beat Kiryat Shmona 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb in continental action, showing they can hold their own against European opposition. Their only blemish in recent memory was a 1-4 loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv, but the subsequent run of results suggests that was more of a blip than a trend.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
AZ Alkmaar and Hapoel Beer Sheva have no recent competitive meetings on record, so there is no head-to-head sample to draw form or tactical trends from ahead of kickoff.
🚨Check out our dedicated AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: AZ Alkmaar the favourite
- Moneyline AZ Alkmaar 1.31 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 8.60
- Draw 5.40
The market prices AZ Alkmaar as strong favourites around 1.31, with Hapoel drifting out near 8.60 on most books. That gap feels generous toward the hosts given AZ’s recent dip in form and sit near the bottom of the League Phase table. Our punters team sees value hiding in the draw price and in backing goals at both ends rather than chasing the short favourite price outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
AZ Alkmaar possible starting eleven
- GK: Jari De Busser
- DF: Lewis Schouten, Wouter Goes, Mateo Chávez, Elijah Dijkstra
- MF: Peer Koopmeiners, Jordy Clasie, Dave Kwakman
- FW: Mexx Meerdink, Ro Zangelo Daal, Calvin Stengs
Echteld should stick with his usual 4-3-3 shape. Koopmeiners carries the biggest workload in midfield based on minutes played, and Meerdink leads the forward line after being the only AZ player to find the net in the sampled matches. Stengs offers width and unpredictability on the counter, a trait AZ will need if Hapoel press high.
Hapoel Beer Sheva possible starting eleven
- GK: Ofir Marciano
- DF: Guy Mizrahi, Miguel Vitor, Pedro Miguel Santos Amador, Matan Baltaksa
- MF: Niv Yehoshua, Eilel Peretz
- FW: Forson Amankwah, Mohamad Abu Rumi, Zahi Ahmed, Igor Zlatanović
Kozuch has favoured a 4-2-3-1 setup in recent weeks, with Yehoshua and Peretz screening the back four. Amankwah’s combination of a goal and an assist in limited minutes makes him the player to watch in the number ten role, while Zlatanović leads the line based on playing time logged over the last five fixtures.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
AZ Alkmaar. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
AZ Alkmaar should carry the territorial advantage of playing at the AFAS Stadion, but their recent results do not match the confidence the betting markets are showing. Hapoel Beer Sheva arrive with better momentum, tighter discipline numbers and a midfielder in Amankwah capable of turning a tight game. We predict goals from both sides, with AZ edging it narrowly or the game finishing level. To be honest, backing Hapoel to score and the match going over 2.5 goals looks like the smarter route than a straight AZ win here.
