Rafael Nogueira
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Rennes welcome Auxerre to Roazhon Park sitting fifth in Ligue 1 with 10 points from five games, while Will Still’s Auxerre side arrive 11th but riding a three-match winning run that nobody expected after a shaky August. Franck Haise’s men have fired 56 shots across their last five outings and scored just once from them, a conversion problem that sits oddly against a club chasing a European spot. Auxerre, by contrast, have needed far fewer attempts to find the net, and that contrast in efficiency is the real story heading into this one.
Esteban Lepaul leads Rennes in shot volume with 13 attempts across his last three appearances, and he is the man most likely to finally turn that pressure into goals. For Auxerre, Cameron Archer has scored twice in his last two matches and looks the sharpest finisher on either team right now, a real threat against a Rennes backline that has shipped nine goals in five league matches.
Hot stat: Rennes have managed just one goal from 56 shots over their last five matches, while Auxerre have scored three times from only 22 attempts, a conversion gap that says more about this fixture than the league table does.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Ligue 1 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Roazhon Park, Rennes |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:15 CEST |
Rennes vs Auxerre prediction
We lean toward Rennes to win, but not by the margin the bookmakers’ 66% implied probability suggests. Rennes have lost two of their last three matches, including a 0-4 thrashing by Lyon, and their attack has gone cold at the exact moment Auxerre have found rhythm. Value sits in backing Rennes to win combined with over 2.5 goals rather than a straight moneyline punt, since both defenses have been porous all season, Rennes conceding nine in five league games and Auxerre twelve in five.
Rennes dominate the ball, averaging well over 1,400 passes across their last five matches against Auxerre’s 715, and that technical control from a 3-4-3 shape should let Haise’s side control territory. Discipline wise, both sides stay fairly clean, Rennes picking up three yellow cards in five matches and Auxerre two, so cards should stay low. Auxerre’s 4-1-4-1 setup under Will Still is built to break forward quickly through Namaso and Archer, and that counter-threat is exactly why we expect goals at both ends rather than a comfortable home shutout.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Cameron Archer to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Rennes’ last match ended in a 0-1 defeat to Laval, extending a worrying run that also includes a heavy 0-4 loss to Lyon just before it. Before that stretch Rennes drew 0-0 with Sturm Graz and won narrowly against Marseille and Angers, so the underlying form has gone from cautiously positive to genuinely concerning over three straight winless games. The attack has barely functioned, scoring only three goals across these five fixtures, and Haise needs a response in front of his own fans.
Auxerre’s most recent match was a wild 4-3 win over Clermont, their third straight victory following wins over Brest and Nice. Before that run they lost to Lyon and Angers, so the turnaround under Will Still has been sharp and recent. In our preview of Auxerre vs Brest we expected goals at both ends rather than a clean result, backing over 2.5 and both teams to score while leaning slightly toward Brest, and the eventual 2-1 Auxerre win delivered on the goals side of that call even though our lean to Brest missed. That pattern of games with goals at both ends looks set to repeat here.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Rennes | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 5 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Rennes vs Auxerre stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Rennes the favourite
- Moneyline Rennes 1.41 | Auxerre 6.44
- Draw 4.90
The market is heavily tilted toward Rennes, with odds around 1.41 compared to Auxerre’s 6.44, a gap that reflects Rennes’ home record and ranking far more than their recent form. We think that gap is slightly too wide given Auxerre’s three-match winning streak and Rennes’ defensive issues, which is why a goals market offers more value than the straight win line here.
Auxerre. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Rennes possible starting eleven
- GK: Brice Samba
- DF: Mahamadou Nagida, Anthony Rouault, Charlie Cresswell
- MF: Quentin Merlin, Valentin Rongier, Mahdi Camara, Bryan Reynolds
- FW: Ludovic Blas, Esteban Lepaul, Eliezer Mayenda
Haise should stick with his 3-4-3, with Samba behind a back three built on Rouault and Cresswell’s interception numbers. Merlin and Reynolds provide the width from midfield, while Lepaul’s shot volume makes him the attacker to watch alongside Blas, who has been quietly productive in buildup play despite no goals yet.
Auxerre possible starting eleven
- GK: Mamadou Diop
- DF: Clément Akpa, Fredrik Oppegard, Lamine Sy, Axel Tuanzebe
- MF: Kevin Danois, Danny Namaso, Naouirou Ahamada, Romain Faivre, Pierre Ekwah
- FW: Cameron Archer
Still’s 4-1-4-1 leans on Danois screening the back four while Namaso and Faivre push forward to support Archer, who leads the squad in goals from the last two matches. Diop’s save numbers justify his place ahead of Nardi, and he could be busy if Rennes dominate possession as expected.
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Rennes. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Rennes win this one at home, but not without conceding. Auxerre’s recent scoring form and Rennes’ defensive drop off over the last three matches point to goals at both ends, perhaps a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline in the home side’s favor. To be hones, Rennes’ shot numbers without the finishing to match them worry us more than their position in the table suggests it should, and Archer’s recent scoring streak gives Auxerre a route back into the game even if Rennes control most of the possession.
