Sofia Quijada
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Real Madrid welcome Sevilla to the Bernabéu off the back of a wild 4-3 win over Roma, a game that showed both their attacking depth and a defensive line that still leaks goals when stretched. Sevilla arrive having drawn 3-3 with Levante, a result that stretches their winless streak against sides inside the top half of the table. Mourinho’s side sit fourth, five points off leaders Barcelona, while Luis Garcia Plaza’s men hold fifth, level on points with a mid-table chasing pack. The interesting angle here: Real Madrid have won the last three meetings between these clubs without conceding more than two, yet Sevilla have scored in seven of their last ten matches regardless of opponent.
Kylian Mbappé carries the attacking burden for Madrid, averaging close to three shots per match across the last five outings and already good for a goal and four offsides drawn, a sign defenders are struggling to contain his runs. Watch Jude Bellingham too, he leads Madrid’s midfielders in shot volume and fouls drawn from the number ten role, and his box arrivals have been a constant weapon this season.
Hot stat: Real Madrid have scored 9 goals in their last four head-to-head meetings with Sevilla while conceding only 2, and Sevilla have failed to win any of their last four visits to the Spanish capital against Los Blancos.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction
We predict Real Madrid to win and cover comfortably, likely by two or more goals. Madrid have won 12 of their last 15 matches and their only two recent defeats came away from home against strong Atletico and a resilient Elche side. Sevilla, by contrast, have lost five of their last ten and conceded three or more in two of their last four games, including a 3-3 collapse against a Levante side sitting mid-table.
Madrid’s passing volume dwarfs Sevilla’s across the last five matches, 1261 passes to 664, and their shot count sits at 35 against Sevilla’s 25. Sevilla commit more fouls per game (27 to Madrid’s 22) and pick up fewer yellow cards relative to their foul count, suggesting a side that fouls tactically rather than recklessly, though this could still invite Madrid set-piece opportunities given Madrid’s 45 free kicks taken in this span. Expect Madrid’s pass accuracy and corner count (19 versus Sevilla’s 3) to translate into territorial control for most of the ninety minutes.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Real Madrid to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Real Madrid’s 4-3 win over Roma was chaotic defensively, conceding three for the first time in weeks, but Rüdiger’s two goals and Mbappé’s continued sharpness in front of goal kept the result in Madrid’s favor. Before that, a comfortable 1-0 over Villarreal and a 4-1 demolition of Rayo Vallecano point to a side that scores freely at home. In our preview of Roma vs Real Madrid we called a narrow one-goal Madrid win paired with under 2.5 goals, and the 4-3 scoreline delivered the margin but blew past our goals line entirely.
Sevilla’s 3-3 draw with Levante extended a run where their defense has looked shaky against attacking sides, following a 1-3 loss to Aston Villa and a 1-3 defeat to Barcelona. Their lone recent bright spots came in low-scoring 1-0 wins over Deportivo and Valencia, suggesting Luis Garcia Plaza’s side defends better against passive opponents than aggressive ones. In our preview of Levante vs Sevilla we backed Sevilla to avoid defeat with goals at both ends, and the 3-3 result went their way on the double chance angle even though the clean win never materialized.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 9 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Real Madrid vs Sevilla stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Real Madrid the favourite
- Moneyline Real Madrid 1.19 | Sevilla 10.00
- Draw 7.00
Bookmakers rate Madrid at roughly 75% to win, and the near 1.20 price reflects a side that has lost just twice all season. Sevilla’s price above 10.00 looks fair given their inconsistent away form, and the draw at 7.00 looks generous considering how rarely these two sides have shared points recently, though Madrid’s defensive wobbles against Roma offer the only real argument for backing the stalemate.
Possible Starting Lineups
Real Madrid possible starting eleven
- GK: Thibaut Courtois
- DF: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konaté, Antonio Rüdiger, Marc Cucurella
- MF: Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Jude Bellingham
- FW: Vinícius, Yan Diomande, Kylian Mbappé
Mourinho tends to stick with his most-used eleven, and Konaté, Rüdiger and Cucurella have all featured in every recent match. Expect the 4-2-3-1 to funnel width through Vinícius and Diomande while Bellingham roams centrally behind Mbappé. Watch for Arda Güler coming off the bench given his two assists in three appearances this stretch.
Sevilla possible starting eleven
- GK: Odysseas Vlachodimos
- DF: José Ángel Carmona, Andrés Castrín, Juan Antonio Iglesias, Arouna Sangante
- MF: Lucien Agoumé, Gabriel Suazo
- FW: Youssouf Fofana, Felix Correia, Miguel Sierra, Robbie Ure
Luis Garcia Plaza’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Agoumé and Suazo to shield the back four, a pairing that has played every minute of the last two matches together. Robbie Ure’s shot volume makes him the likely spearhead, with Fofana and Correia, both scorers in recent weeks, supporting from deeper positions.
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Sevilla. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Real Madrid to win comfortably, perhaps by a 3-1 or 3-0 scoreline. Madrid’s shot volume and set-piece output dwarf anything Sevilla have produced across their last five games, and their home form this season has been close to flawless. Sevilla’s away defensive record, three goals conceded in two of their last four, gives little confidence they can keep this one tight. To be hones, the only worry for backers is Madrid’s own defensive lapses against Roma, but that came away from home against a different style of opponent. At the Bernabéu, against a Sevilla side missing consistency, Madrid should dominate possession, corners and shot count from start to finish.
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