Liam Duckstein
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Parma welcome Genoa to the Tardini with both sides stuck at the bottom of the Serie A table, separated only by goal difference. Neither club has managed to string together results this season, and this fixture already carries the feel of a genuine relegation scrap in September rather than May.
The interesting wrinkle here is efficiency, or the lack of it. Genoa have generated far more attacking volume than Parma across their last five outings, yet both clubs remain toothless in front of goal. This is shaping up as a game decided by mistakes rather than moments of quality.
Watch for José David Romero up top for Parma, the forward has fired nine shots in his last five appearances, comfortably the most on the roster, and he looks the most likely source of a home goal. For Genoa, defender Johan Vásquez has been an unlikely weapon, scoring twice from the back line in the last five matches and posing a genuine threat at set pieces.
Hot stat: Genoa have fired 74 total shots across their last five matches but scored only 3 goals, a conversion rate that borders on wasteful. Parma, by contrast, have needed just 45 attempts to score 2, proof that shot volume alone won’t decide this one.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Ennio Tardini, Parma |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Parma vs Genoa prediction
We predict a tight, low-scoring affair with Genoa edging it. The bookmakers’ numbers back that view, giving the away side a 38% chance against Parma’s 31%, and our punters team agrees the visitors carry the sharper attacking options even in a rough patch. Genoa’s win over the last 30 days came with actual goal threat behind it, while Parma have failed to win a single match in that same span.
Both sides play the same 3-4-2-1 shape, which should produce a fairly even midfield battle with both wingbacks pushing forward. Parma have committed 47 fouls and picked up 6 yellow cards across their last five games, Genoa sit close behind on 46 fouls and 7 cards, plus a red card in that stretch through Leo Østigård. Pass accuracy favours Genoa slightly at roughly 84.5% against Parma’s 83.7%, a marginal edge that lines up with their overall superior shot output. None of this points to a free-flowing game, and we expect the fouls and stoppages to keep the tempo low.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Genoa win or draw (Double Chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Parma have lost four of their last five games, drawing the other, and sit second-bottom of the table with a single point from four rounds. Their most recent outing ended in a 1-2 defeat to Como, a game where Parma actually got on the scoresheet but conceded twice to a side in far better form. In our preview of Como vs Parma we backed Como for a comfortable win with a clean sheet at the back and goals at the other end, and the 1-2 scoreline told a mixed story: Como did win as called, but only by a single goal and Parma found the net themselves, so the core of that ticket only partly held up.
Genoa arrive having taken one win from their last five, a narrow 1-0 defeat of SudTirol in their most recent match. That result snapped a run of struggles in front of goal, though the defense still looks shaky given how often they’ve conceded across the sample. Genoa have scored in four of their last five outings, which is a mild positive sign heading into a match against a Parma side that has struggled to keep anyone quiet either.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Parma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2 |
Parma have failed to win any of their last four meetings with Genoa, drawing twice 0-0 and losing the other two 0-1. Low scoring has been the theme of this fixture in recent seasons.
🚨Check out our dedicated Parma vs Genoa stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Genoa the favourite
- Moneyline Parma 3.20 | Genoa 2.54
- Draw 3.06
The market has Genoa as clear favourites despite playing away from home, and the gap between the two prices reflects the underlying shot data more than the current points tally. Draw odds sitting close to the home win price tells us bookmakers see this as genuinely three-way open, which matches our own view that a low-scoring stalemate or a narrow Genoa win are the two most realistic outcomes.
Possible Starting Lineups
Parma possible starting eleven
- GK: Edoardo Corvi
- DF: Enrico DelPrato, Lautaro Valenti, Mariano Troilo
- MF: Emanuele Valeri, Franco Carboni, Mandela Keita, Christian Ordóñez
- FW: Adrián Bernabé García, Pontus Almqvist, Matija Frigan
Corvi has started every game in the sample and looks the clear number one over Daffara. The back three picks itself from the players with the most minutes, and Valeri and Carboni give width from wingback spots in the 3-4-2-1. Keep an eye on Bernabé behind the striker, he’s the creative outlet Parma badly need, while Frigan leads the line ahead of the misfiring Romero and Lontani.
Genoa possible starting eleven
- GK: Justin Bijlow
- DF: Alessandro Marcandalli, Johan Vásquez, Leo Østigård
- MF: Stefano Sabelli, Mario Mitaj, Morten Frendrup, Djibril Sow
- FW: Tommaso Baldanzi, Junior Messias, Lorenzo Colombo
Bijlow’s save numbers make him the obvious choice in goal over Genoa’s other two keepers, who haven’t recorded a single stop in the sample. Frendrup and Sow anchor the midfield in the same 3-4-2-1 setup, freeing Baldanzi and Messias to work behind Colombo, who leads Genoa in shots among the forwards. Vásquez remains the wildcard from set pieces given his goal record from centre-back this term.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Parma. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Neither Parma nor Genoa look capable of a convincing win right now, but Genoa’s shot volume and slightly sharper recent form give them the edge on paper. We predict Genoa to avoid defeat here, whether that comes via a narrow win or a share of the points, and we lean toward under 2.5 goals given how both defenses have conceded in low-margin games this season. BTTS No feels the smarter side of that market too, Parma in particular have struggled badly to find the net against organised opponents. To be hones, this reads like a match where a single set piece or defensive error decides everything, and perhaps that favours Genoa’s aerial threats over Parma’s misfiring front line.
