Liam Duckstein
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Como welcome Parma to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia sitting sixth in the table, while their visitors occupy a spot just above the relegation zone. Cesc Fàbregas has built a side that presses high and scores freely, and the gap in quality between these two clubs right now looks wider than most tables would suggest. An interesting wrinkle here: Parma have not beaten Como in any of the last four head-to-head meetings, a run that stretches back over two seasons, and Carlos Cuesta walks into this fixture with a squad that has managed only one win in its last six matches across all competitions.
Martin Baturina has been directly involved in five goals over Como’s last five matches (three goals, two assists) and looks like the player most likely to break Parma down through the middle. On the other side, Simone Lontani carries almost the entire attacking burden for Parma, having scored all three of his side’s goals in their last five outings.
Hot stat: Como have fired 89 shots across their last five games compared to just 45 from Parma, and they have scored 11 goals in that stretch against Parma’s meagre return of 3.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como |
| 🗓️ Date: | 14.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Como vs Parma prediction
We predict a comfortable win for Como, and the value here sits not in the plain moneyline but in the Como handicap market. With odds around 1.30 for a straight win, backing Como at -1.5 on the Asian handicap offers a fairer price while still reflecting the gulf between these two sides this season. Como have scored two or more goals in four of their last five matches, and Parma’s defense has leaked six goals across the same span despite facing modest attacking opposition.
Como’s numbers back up the eye test. They have completed 2,869 passes in their last five games against Parma’s 1,993, and their pass accuracy sits noticeably higher too. Parma’s fouls total (62) and yellow card count (7) over the same stretch point to a team forced into reactive, physical defending rather than controlled possession. Expect Cuesta’s side to sit deep, foul often around the box, and try to slow Como’s rhythm through set pieces and disruption rather than through the ball.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Martin Baturina to score or assist |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Como arrive off the back of a 4-1 win, their fourth victory of the campaign inside seven league matches, and they have lost only once in that period. Fàbregas’s men have drawn three, won five and lost two across their last fifteen outings, a run that shows real consistency at both ends of the pitch. Their attacking trio has rotated goalscorers nicely across the last five fixtures, which makes them harder to game plan against than a side reliant on a single striker.
Parma head into this one having drawn 1-1 with Monza in their last outing, a result that snapped a three-match losing run but did little to settle nerves. Across their last fifteen matches, Cuesta’s side have won just three times, drawn four and lost eight, a record that explains their spot second from bottom. Their previous five results show a team that struggles to score against sides pressing from the front, netting only three goals total, and Como will look to exploit that exact weakness from kickoff.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Como | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Como vs Parma stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Como the favourite
- Moneyline Como 1.30 | Parma 9.99
- Draw 5.26
Odds across every major bookmaker line up almost identically here, which tells us the market has little doubt about who wins this. Prices around 1.30 for Como imply a win probability near 77%, close to the bookmakers’ own 72% figure. A draw priced above 5.00 and Parma above 9.00 to win outright leave very little room for value on the straight markets, which is exactly why we lean toward the handicap line and goals markets instead. To be honest, backing Parma outright here feels like a losing habit waiting to form.
Possible Starting Lineups
Como possible starting eleven
- GK: Jean Butez
- DF: Yan Couto, Trevoh Chalobah, Jacobo Ramón, Álex Valle
- MF: Nico Paz, Maximo Perrone, Luis Milla
- FW: Assane Diao Diaoune, Anastasios Douvikas, Martin Baturina
Fàbregas has kept faith with a settled back four across the last five matches, and Butez’s seven saves in that stretch show he has been busy without ever looking shaky. Paz and Baturina carry the creative load in the 4-3-3, and Douvikas’s three goals from limited shot volume make him a real threat inside the box. Watch Diao Diaoune closely, his pace against a Parma back line that has struggled defensively all season could prove decisive.
Parma possible starting eleven
- GK: Edoardo Corvi
- DF: Emanuele Valeri, Mariano Troilo, Lautaro Valenti, Enrico DelPrato
- MF: Mandela Keita, Christian Ordóñez
- FW: El Bilal Toure, Pontus Almqvist, Abdou-Salam Konaté, Simone Lontani
Cuesta’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Corvi behind a back four that has featured in every match this stretch, a sign of limited squad depth rather than pure form. Keita and Ordóñez sit as the double pivot, tasked with shielding a defense that has already conceded plenty. Lontani remains the focal point up front, and his movement will need to be sharp given how little service Parma’s midfield tends to provide.
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Parma. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Our punters team backs Como to win this comfortably, likely by two or more goals, given the gap in form, goals scored and squad quality on show. Parma’s inability to score against organised defenses over their last five matches, combined with Como’s sharp attacking trio, points toward a low-scoring night for the visitors and a busy one for their goalkeeper. We predict Como win, over 2.5 goals, and BTTS No as the core of our ticket for this one, perhaps with Baturina involved in a goal for good measure.
