Liam Duckstein
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Parma and Bologna renew the Derby dell’Emilia at the Tardini with the table pulling them in opposite directions. Bologna sit ninth and arrive with four wins from their last five, a run that includes a 4-2 demolition of Milan. Parma occupy 15th place and needed last week’s 3-0 defeat of Atalanta to stop a slide that had produced one goal in four matches. Both coaches favour the same 3-4-2-1 structure, so the wing-back channels could settle everything. Watch Giovanni Fabbian, Parma’s most productive midfielder with a goal and two assists in his last five, and Bologna’s Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda, a substitute who has three goals in just 118 minutes of play.
The hot stat belongs to the visitors. Bologna have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, while Parma have managed four, and every single one of those arrived in the win over Atalanta.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Ennio Tardini, Parma |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Parma vs Bologna prediction
We predict Bologna to win, and we see the away price as fair rather than generous, which is why our stake goes on the goals markets instead. The visitors hold an 80% win rate over the past month against Parma’s 20%. Bologna have scored at least twice in four of their last five, while Parma own the second-worst attack in Serie A with eight goals from ten games. The Atalanta result flatters the host, since Atalanta sit 13th with a negative goal difference and have drifted through most of their recent fixtures. Bologna’s only defeat in this run came against second-placed Inter, which is no shame at all. Our scoreline call is 2-1 to the visitors.
Stylistically this could turn scrappy. Bologna commit 58 fouls and collect 13 yellow cards across five matches, the profile of an aggressive pressing side, whereas Parma are far cleaner with five bookings. The visitors also intercept more, 57 to 43, and complete passes at 81% against Parma’s 79%. Parma actually outshoot them, 58 attempts to 49, yet convert poorly, four goals from that volume. Expect Bologna to force turnovers high up the pitch and Parma to lean on set pieces, where they have scored nothing from 51 free kicks. The card count should climb in a derby, but the three points still travel east.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bologna to score over 1.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Parma’s month reads one win, three defeats and a draw. The 3-0 defeat of Atalanta last time out was their first victory in over a month, and it came against a mid-table side stuck in a poor spell. Everything before it was grim: a goalless draw with Udinese, a 1-2 loss to Lazio, then consecutive 0-3 beatings from Torino and Inter. Three of those five matches produced no Parma goal whatsoever. Alberto Gilardino has stabilized the shape but not the output, and El Bilal Toure has led the line for 392 minutes without a goal to show for it. In our preview of Atalanta vs Parma we backed Atalanta to win with room to spare, and the 3-0 result went against us. One bright afternoon does not rebuild an attack that has managed eight league goals all season.
Bologna, by contrast, keep banking points. Raffaele Palladino’s side beat Lecce 2-1, lost only to Inter, edged Cagliari 2-0, then produced the statement result of their season, a 4-2 win over Milan, before a controlled 2-1 success against Monza last time out. That is 11 goals in five matches and four wins. The Monza game lacked the spectacle of the Milan night but it was just as professional: Bologna took the lead, absorbed what came back and finished the job. Juan Miranda has four assists from the left flank, Tommaso Pobega adds two goals from midfield, and Mbangula Tshifunda keeps scoring in short bursts. In our preview of Bologna vs Monza we called a Bologna win with two goals or more in it, and the 2-1 result delivered it.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These rivals have met five times since October 2024 and the ledger is dead even: two wins apiece, one 0-0 draw, and the goals split 5-5. Parma won the most recent league meeting 1-0 in February, though Bologna had taken the two before that, including a 2-1 Coppa Italia tie.
| Statistic | Parma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Parma vs Bologna stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bologna the favourite
- Moneyline Parma 4.48 | Bologna 1.84
- Draw 3.56
Those prices are averages across the major books, and they translate to roughly 22% Parma, 28% draw and 54% Bologna, almost identical to the bookmaker model of 22%, 26% and 52%. We agree with the market’s read. The Atalanta result changed Parma’s mood, not their numbers, and Bologna’s current level deserves a sub-2.00 price. To be honest, the draw at 3.56 is the price we would leave alone: Bologna have not drawn any of their last five and Parma have drawn only twice all season. Goals markets are not priced consistently across books yet, so the plays in our tips table are where we attack this fixture.
Possible Starting Lineups
Parma possible starting eleven
- GK: Edoardo Corvi
- DF: Enrico DelPrato, Mariano Troilo, Dominik Drobnic
- MF: Emanuele Valeri, Mandela Keita, Vincent Sierro, Adrián Bernabé, Giovanni Fabbian, Christian Ordóñez
- FW: El Bilal Toure
Gilardino sticks with the 3-4-2-1 he has used all month. DelPrato, Keita and Troilo have played every minute of the last five matches, Valeri provides the width on the left, and Fabbian operates behind Toure as the main creative outlet. Corvi keeps the gloves on minutes played, with Giovanni Daffara pushing for a start. Simone Lontani, two goals in under 200 minutes, is the bench threat we expect to see in the second half.
Bologna possible starting eleven
- GK: Łukasz Skorupski
- DF: Nicolo Casale, Matteo Darmian, Arthur Theate
- MF: Nadir Zortea, Lewis Ferguson, Tommaso Pobega, Juan Miranda, Federico Bernardeschi, Nicolo Cambiaghi
- FW: Jens Odgaard
Palladino mirrors the 3-4-2-1 and names a near full-strength pack. Ferguson has not missed a minute, Casale and Zortea are ever-present alongside him, and Miranda’s four assists from wing-back make him the supply line for Odgaard. Bernardeschi and Cambiaghi, with two goals and two assists between them, sit behind the striker. Mbangula Tshifunda and Riccardo Orsolini are the fresh legs we expect in the final half hour.
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Bologna. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Bologna to win 2-1, and we state it without hesitation. The visitors score freely, create through Miranda and Cambiaghi from wide areas, and face a Parma side that has blanked in three of its last five. Perhaps the derby atmosphere drags the hosts into the contest for long spells, and Bologna’s habit of conceding keeps the home crowd interested, which is exactly why we take both teams to score and over 2.5 goals alongside the away win. Parma’s 3-0 over Atalanta was a welcome boost for Gilardino, yet the underlying numbers, eight league goals in ten matches, still point one way. Bologna’s four wins from five, their 11-goal burst and their superior squad depth make the away side our clear play, with Bologna scoring more than once as the value swing.
