Liam Duckstein
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Bologna welcome Monza to the Dall’Ara sitting just outside mid-table, but their underlying form tells a different story than the league position. Raffaele Palladino’s side have won three of their last four matches, including a wild 4-2 win over Milan, while Ivan Juric’s Monza arrive having lost four of their last five. The interesting wrinkle here is that Monza have actually out-shot and out-passed stronger opponents in recent weeks without turning that control into points, a pattern we think continues on Saturday.
Keep an eye on Riccardo Orsolini for the hosts, his movement off the bench against Milan showed he can still change a game in a flash. For Monza, Gustavo Varela has been the one shining light, scoring four goals in his last four appearances while the rest of the squad has struggled to find any rhythm at all.
Hot stat: Varela’s four goals in four games for Monza is the standout number from either side’s recent matches, a striking return given his team has won only once in that stretch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Bologna vs Monza prediction
We predict a home win here and we are leaning toward Bologna covering a two-goal handicap. The bookmakers have Bologna around 55% to win outright, and the stats back that number. Bologna have won three of four in the last month while Monza have managed just one win in five. Perhaps the smarter single angle for punters is Bologna win plus over 2.5 goals, since Palladino’s side have been scoring freely at home and Monza’s defense has leaked goals against sides far less dangerous than this current Bologna attack.
Style-wise, both sides run the same 3-4-2-1 shape, which should produce an open midfield battle with the wing-backs doing plenty of work. Bologna have committed 45 fouls and picked up 9 yellow cards in their last five matches compared to Monza’s 37 fouls and 5 cards, suggesting Bologna press harder and risk more bookings. Monza hold a slight edge in passing volume and shot numbers, 47 shots to Bologna’s 39 over the same stretch, but that volume has not translated into results. We expect Bologna’s sharper finishing to be the difference again.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bologna win & over 1.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Bologna’s last match was a thriller, a 4-2 win over Milan that papered over some defensive gaps but confirmed the attack is clicking. Before that they beat Cagliari 2-0 and lost narrowly 1-3 to Inter, a game where the gap in quality was obvious but Bologna still created chances. The Lecce win and the Torino draw round out a run of four wins from five, a much better record than their mid-table position suggests. In our preview of Milan vs Bologna we backed the hosts to win comfortably by two goals, and the 4-2 result actually went the other way, Bologna’s attack punished Milan instead. That should give extra confidence heading into this one.
Monza’s form reads far worse. Their last outing ended 1-4 against Napoli, continuing a run where they’ve lost four of their last five including defeats to Torino and Lazio. The lone bright spot was a 4-0 thrashing of Cagliari, proof the attacking talent exists even if consistency does not. In our preview of Monza vs Napoli we called for a Napoli win with both teams scoring, and the 1-4 scoreline delivered exactly that outcome for our main pick. Monza’s tendency to concede first and chase games is becoming a clear pattern, and it is one Bologna should exploit at home.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Bologna | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Bologna vs Monza stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bologna the favourite
- Moneyline Bologna 1.70 | Monza 4.78
- Draw 3.82
The market makes Bologna clear favourites around 1.70, with Monza drifting out to near 4.80 across most books. That price gap feels fair given the form disparity, Bologna winning three of four recently against Monza winning just once in five. We see little value backing the draw at close to 3.80 when Bologna’s home scoring form looks this strong, the moneyline on the hosts remains the cleaner play here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bologna possible starting eleven
- GK: Skorupski
- DF: Casale, Vitik, Heggem
- MF: Zortea, Ferguson, Moro, Miranda
- FW: Cambiaghi, Bernardeschi, Dovbyk
Palladino should stick with the 3-4-2-1 that has worked recently. Ferguson’s engine in midfield and Miranda’s link-up down the left give Bologna control, while Cambiaghi and Bernardeschi work behind Dovbyk. Keep watching for Orsolini coming off the bench, his impact against Milan suggests he could start if Palladino wants more directness up top.
Monza possible starting eleven
- GK: Tornqvist
- DF: Carboni, Goglichidze, Antov
- MF: Birindelli, Akinsanmiro, Colombo, Mangas
- FW: Varela, Robinson, Mota
Juric mirrors the 3-4-2-1 shape, with Varela and Robinson supporting Mota up top. Tornqvist has been busy in goal with 16 saves across four games, a telling sign of how much pressure Monza’s defense has absorbed lately. Varela remains the one player capable of punishing Bologna on the counter if given space.
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Bologna. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Bologna to win this one and score at least twice doing it. The hosts have found their attacking form just as Monza’s defense has started leaking goals to almost everyone they face. Varela will likely get his chance against a Bologna back line that has looked shaky at times, which is why we also like both teams to score alongside the home win. To be honest, Monza’s away form gives us no real reason to expect anything but another difficult afternoon for Juric’s side at the Dall’Ara.
