PAOK vs Aris Thessaloniki Prediction: 07.12.2025 Super League 1 Preview

The Thessaloniki derby between PAOK and Aris Thessaloniki returns in the Super League 1 with both teams aiming to make a distinct mark early in the season. PAOK, riding high on an impressive start, host arch-rivals Aris at the iconic Toumba Stadium. While PAOK sit second and look to keep the pressure on Olympiacos, Aris are still searching for consistency and a springboard back into the top spots. This clash is more than just a local rivalry—it is a tactical battle between two sides that know each other intimately and have plenty to play for.

For PAOK, eyes will be on Taison, whose attacking drive and recent form—two goals and three assists in his last four matches—make him the prime creative outlet. For Aris, forward Loren Morón, who combines movement with a poacher’s instinct, will need to be clinical if Aris are to upset their rivals. Both sides line up in a familiar 4-2-3-1, promising a closely-contested midfield battle.

A telling stat? PAOK have scored eight goals and created 24 corners in their last five matches, making them one of the most dangerous sides from set pieces in the league this term.

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PAOK vs Aris Thessaloniki prediction

Given PAOK’s superior form, attacking efficiency, and home advantage, the best value bet is a home win. The hosts have not only been the more consistent side, boasting a 75% unbeaten rate at home, but they also outscore Aris by a ratio of 4:1 across their past five league outings. PAOK’s ability to generate corners and create high-quality chances sets them apart, while Aris have struggled for creativity and goal-scoring opportunities.

From a tactical perspective, both teams mirror each other’s preferred 4-2-3-1 structure. PAOK’s higher ball retention (over 80 percent pass accuracy in recent matches), coupled with a disciplined yet aggressive pressing game (26 interceptions in last five), gives them more control. Aris, meanwhile, play a more reactive game, relying on moments of transition, but their lower shot output (just 30 shots in their last five) and higher foul count underline a side struggling to grab games by the scruff of the neck. With both sides prone to picking up bookings—eight yellow cards each in their latest five—expect a physical encounter, but PAOK’s control in midfield and superior set-piece play suggest they will dictate the tempo.

Team Analysis

PAOK Recent Form & Last Match

PAOK approach this tie unbeaten in their last five, most recently drawing 1-1 with Aris in the cup, following a morale-boosting 3-2 victory over Levadiakos—a match where they demonstrated their attacking depth and resilience. Throughout the last month, PAOK have maintained a high pass completion rate, strong defensive contributions from players like Dejan Lovren, and have consistently won midfield duels. Their main issue lies in brief defensive lapses, as seen in their loss to Panathinaikos, but overall, their ability to control games and press high remains a key strength.

Aris Thessaloniki Recent Form & Last Match

Aris come into this derby on the back of a hard-fought 1-1 draw with PAOK in the cup but have won only one of their past four competitive fixtures. Their 2-1 win over AEL Larisa showcased moments of quality but was sandwiched between a goalless draw with Asteras Tripolis and a narrow defeat to title-challengers Olympiacos. Aris have had difficulty carving out high-quality chances (only two goals in their last five games) and remain reliant on individual moments of creativity, particularly from Morón and Carles Pérez. Their defensive effort is undermined by frequent fouls and a lack of attacking thrust from midfield.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full PAOK vs Aris Thessaloniki stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: PAOK the favourite

• Moneyline PAOK 1.48 | Aris Thessaloniki 6.40–7.00
• Draw 3.90–4.30
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.38 | No 1.57

The bookmakers make PAOK clear favourites, reflecting their superior home record, attacking potency, and squad depth. Odds of 1.45–1.48 on PAOK reinforce their perceived dominance, while Aris’s wide 6.40–7.00 underdog odds highlight their recent struggles. The under 2.5 goals market is telling, with both sides preferring pragmatism in big matches. Both teams to score is also seen as less likely, backed up by defensive trends and Aris’s recent attacking shortcomings.

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Possible Starting Lineups

PAOK possible starting eleven

• GK: Jiří Pavlenka
• DF: Dejan Lovren, Jonjoe Kenny, Abdul Baba Rahman, Tomasz Kędziora
• MF: Magomed Ozdoev, Soualiho Meïté, Luka Ivanušec
• FW: Taison, Giorgos Giakoumakis, Andrija Živković

PAOK should remain loyal to their 4-2-3-1. Pavlenka is the undisputed number one, while the defensive quartet offers robust protection and a passing outlet, with Lovren marshalling the back-line. The midfield double pivot of Ozdoev and Meïté supplies defensive cover and ball progression, while Ivanušec links midfield to attack. Taison’s creativity, Giakoumakis’s presence in the box, and Živković’s direct running make for a potent attacking trio behind the striker.

Aris Thessaloniki possible starting eleven

• GK: Sokratis Dioudis
• DF: Pedro Alvaro, Noah Fadiga, Lindsay Rose, Álvaro Tejero
• MF: Uros Racic, Monchu, Martin Frýdek
• FW: Loren Morón, Carles Pérez, Olimpiu Moruțan

Aris too are likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1. Dioudis anchors the defence, with Rose and Alvaro providing aerial presence and distribution. Fadiga and Tejero offer width and overlapping support. Midfield sees Racic and Monchu tasked with both shielding the backline and launching transitions, while Frýdek operates as a pivot. Up front, Morón is the key goal threat, supported by the technical ability of Pérez and pace of Moruțan. Keep a close eye on Morón—much of Aris’s attacking spark will depend on his movement and finishing.

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My take on the Match

All signs point toward a statement win for PAOK. The hosts possess the stronger squad on paper and in form. Their attacking dynamics, particularly through Taison and the industrious Giakoumakis, should break down an Aris defence that has been vulnerable in recent fixtures. Expect a disciplined midfield performance and dominance at set pieces. Main pick: PAOK to win by at least one goal, with set pieces and midfield control likely to be decisive.

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