Levi Rothermund
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Stuttgart welcome Borussia Dortmund to the MHP Arena carrying a rough start to the campaign, sitting 14th after three rounds. Dortmund, by contrast, arrive as one of only two unbeaten sides in the league, level on points with Freiburg at the top. Something interesting here: Dortmund have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings between these clubs, yet two of those wins came by the tightest of margins. Honestly, this fixture has a habit of running closer than the table suggests.
Ermedin Demirović has been Stuttgart’s main outlet in front of goal, scoring four times in his last five appearances despite limited service. On the other side, Serhou Guirassy keeps punishing Bundesliga defenses, netting four goals and adding two assists across his last five outings for Dortmund. Both strikers will be worth watching closely on Saturday.
Hot stat: Dortmund have scored 16 goals in their last five matches across competitions, including a 5-0 rout of HEBC Hamburg, while Stuttgart shipped five past their own defense in a heavy loss to Bayern Munich just two matches ago. That gap in defensive solidity is hard to ignore.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | MHP Arena, Stuttgart |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
We lean towards Dortmund here, but not by a landslide margin. Niko Kovac’s side have won five of their last seven matches and sit second in the table with a plus-6 goal difference after just three rounds. Stuttgart have lost two of their last three league games and conceded eight goals in that span. The value pick from the TipsGG punters team is Dortmund to win, though we would not be surprised if Stuttgart nick a goal given their home record against this opponent historically.
Both sides play a mirrored 3-4-2-1 shape, which usually produces open wing battles down the flanks. Dortmund have committed slightly more fouls (53 vs 48) and picked up more yellow cards (6 vs 5) across their last five matches, plus one red card, suggesting a physical edge that could turn the referee into a factor. Stuttgart’s pass accuracy sits marginally lower too, at roughly 84% compared to Dortmund’s near-86%, which hints at Dortmund controlling more of the ball in midfield. That control could translate into more clear-cut chances on Saturday.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Borussia Dortmund to win either half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Stuttgart’s last outing ended in a 1-2 defeat to Hoffenheim, extending a stretch where three of their last five results have gone against them. Before that they beat Viking 3-1 and thrashed FC Köln 4-1, so the attacking quality is clearly there when the service reaches Demirović or Undav. The Bayern Munich mauling (1-5) two matches back still looks like the outlier that exposed real gaps at the back, and Hoffenheim exploited similar space just days ago.
Dortmund’s most recent match produced a comfortable 3-0 win over Paderborn, their third straight victory. They also survived a scare against Villarreal (3-2) and edged Hoffenheim by the same score, showing a side that can grind out results even when not fully fluent. The 5-0 demolition of HEBC Hamburg adds further proof that this squad punishes weaker opposition without mercy, and Stuttgart’s leaky defense this season fits that profile uncomfortably well.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 10 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Stuttgart the favourite
- Moneyline Stuttgart 2.35 | Borussia Dortmund 2.80
- Draw 3.70
Bookmakers actually give Stuttgart a slight edge as home favourites here, which surprises us a little given the table gap. We think that price reflects home advantage more than current form. Dortmund’s away odds still look reasonable given their unbeaten league run, and we’d rate them as the sharper value pick on current output.
Possible Starting Lineups
Stuttgart possible starting eleven
- GK: Fabian Bredlow
- DF: Jeffrey Chabot, Finn Jeltsch, Ramon Hendriks
- MF: Josha Vagnoman, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Angelo Stiller, Grischa Prömel
- FW: Bilal El Khannouss, Deniz Undav, Ermedin Demirović
Hoeneß tends to stick with his 3-4-2-1 shape, and every player listed above has featured in all five of Stuttgart’s recent matches bar Hendriks. Demirović leads the line as the focal point, while Undav’s four assists this season make him the creative hub behind him. Stiller anchors the midfield and needs a big game to keep Dortmund’s runners quiet.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexander Meyer
- DF: Waldemar Anton, Daniel Svensson, Kouakou Joane Gadou
- MF: Julian Ryerson, Marcel Sabitzer, Joey Veerman, Kauã Prates
- FW: Jobe Bellingham, Konstantinos Karetsas, Serhou Guirassy
Kovac has largely rotated his keepers, but Meyer has logged the most minutes recently, so he gets the nod on appearance data alone. Guirassy remains the clear focal point up top, and Karetsas offers the kind of direct dribbling that could stretch Stuttgart’s back three. Ryerson’s overlapping runs from wing-back have been a consistent outlet all season.
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Stuttgart. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Dortmund look the more complete side right now, unbeaten in three straight league rounds and averaging over three goals a game recently. Stuttgart’s defense has cracked under pressure twice in the last month, and Guirassy’s form suggests he will fancy his chances at the MHP Arena. We expect goals at both ends, maybe a slightly nervy finish, but Dortmund’s away form edges this one. Our call: Borussia Dortmund to win, with both teams finding the net along the way.
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