Sofia Quijada
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Pachuca welcome a Necaxa side without a win in five to Estadio Hidalgo, and the gap in form between these two couldn’t be starker right now. Pachuca sit 12th but have won three of their last five outings, while Necaxa prop up the relegation picture in 17th with just two wins from ten league games. The sides have met three times in recent Liga MX history and Pachuca have won every single one, often comfortably, a trend the home side will fancy extending on their own turf.
Watch Salomón Rondón for Pachuca, the Venezuelan has scored three goals in his last three appearances and remains the focal point of the 3-4-2-1 setup. For Necaxa, Julián Carranza is their one genuine spark, netting twice and setting up another in his last three games despite his side’s wider struggles.
Hot stat: Necaxa have scored just three goals from 34 shots across their last five matches, while shipping 20 goals in the league already, the second-worst defensive record in the entire division. Pachuca, by contrast, have found the net 5 times from 62 shots over the same stretch and have beaten Necaxa in all three of their last head-to-head meetings.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:10 CEST |
Pachuca vs Necaxa prediction
We predict Pachuca to win this one and probably by more than a single goal. Necaxa have lost three straight league games, concede freely on the road, and have never beaten Pachuca in their last three meetings, losing by an aggregate of 12-5 across those matches. Pachuca’s home scoring rate paired with Necaxa’s leaky defense points toward a comfortable home win, perhaps with a cover on the Asian handicap for value rather than the straight moneyline at short odds.
Pachuca complete more passes and hold a cleaner pass accuracy rate than Necaxa over the last five games (924 to 1069 total attempted, but Pachuca’s 1 card fewer per game and sharper final-ball numbers stand out). Necaxa foul less often and sit deeper, recording 38 fouls to Pachuca’s 44 in the same stretch, a defensive setup that hasn’t stopped them conceding regularly anyway. Pachuca’s extra fouls and cards suggest a physical edge that could produce a few bookings, though Necaxa’s low card count makes an over-the-top cards market less appealing.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Pachuca to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Pachuca arrive on the back of a 4-0 win, continuing a stretch where they’ve picked up wins in three of their last five fixtures against a mix of league and domestic opposition. The 0-1 loss to Santos Laguna remains the outlier, a game where Rondón went quiet and the defense conceded a late winner. In our preview of Santos Laguna vs Pachuca we backed Pachuca to edge it by a single goal with both teams scoring, and the 0-1 final score went against that call, Pachuca failed to score at all. Since then they’ve bounced back strongly, scoring four unanswered goals in their most recent outing and looking sharper in the final third.
Necaxa head into this one having lost three of their last five, drawn one, and won none, a run that includes a 2-4 defeat to Club America in their last outing. In our preview of Necaxa vs Club America we called an away win for America along with goals at both ends, and the 2-4 result delivered on all three counts. Necaxa did at least find the net twice in that game, offering a glimpse of attacking intent, but their defense has now conceded multiple goals in four of their last five matches, a pattern that bodes poorly against a Pachuca side in good scoring form.
🚨Check out our dedicated Pachuca vs Necaxa stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Pachuca the favourite
- Moneyline Pachuca 1.67 | Necaxa 4.40
- Draw 3.90
Bookmakers have Pachuca at a short 1.67, reflecting their home advantage and Necaxa’s dismal recent run. We think the price is fair given the historical dominance in this fixture and Pachuca’s superior squad depth, though the draw at 3.90 shouldn’t be dismissed entirely, Necaxa have managed to grind out stalemates against stronger sides this season. Still, backing Pachuca straight up or on a goal-line market looks the smarter route for us.
Possible Starting Lineups
Pachuca possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Moreno
- DF: Eduardo Dos Santos, Francisco Venegas, Carlos Sánchez
- MF: Christian Rivera, Sergio Rodríguez, Alan Bautista, Rodolfo Pizarro
- FW: Oussama Idrissi, Javier Vallejo, Salomón Rondón
Benjamín Mora sticks with the 3-4-2-1 that’s brought three wins from five. Rondón leads the line and is the player to watch, with Idrissi and Vallejo rotating behind him to supply the service. Dos Santos and Venegas anchor the back three with the most minutes among the defensive group.
Necaxa possible starting eleven
- GK: Luis Jiménez
- DF: Kaiky Marques Naves, Raúl Martínez, Agustin Oliveros, Diego Ochoa
- MF: Pedro Pedraza, Javier Ruiz, Lorenzo Faravelli, Owen González, Kevin Ante
- FW: Julián Carranza
Juan Reynoso’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Pedraza and Ruiz to shield the back four, a unit that’s conceded heavily regardless. Carranza is the one attacking outlet worth watching, carrying almost all of Necaxa’s recent goal threat on his own.
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Necaxa. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a comfortable Pachuca win, likely by two goals or more. Rondón’s finishing form combined with Necaxa’s leaky backline, 20 goals conceded already this season, gives the home side every reason to push for a convincing scoreline. Necaxa’s attack isn’t completely toothless thanks to Carranza, but three straight league losses and a defense this porous away from home make a clean sheet for Necaxa unlikely. Perhaps the smarter angle beyond the win is backing Pachuca on a -1 handicap given the gulf in current form and the head-to-head record stacked entirely in their favor.
