Sofia Quijada
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Santos Laguna sit rock bottom of the Apertura table with just 7 points from 9 games, while Pachuca occupy a modest 11th spot but arrive unbeaten in five straight league outings. The interesting wrinkle here is Santos Laguna’s away form is actually their best asset this season, they beat Toluca 3-2 on the road last time out, a result that flips the script for a side otherwise labeled the league’s worst defense. Pachuca, meanwhile, have won two of the last four head-to-head meetings with this opponent and go into Torreon as clear bookmaker favorites.
Salomón Rondón has scored 5 goals in Pachuca’s last 5 matches alone, more than Santos Laguna’s entire squad has managed in the same stretch. On the other side, Ezequiel Bullaude has been Santos Laguna’s most dangerous attacking outlet, contributing 2 goals and an assist while leading the team in shots (15) across his last 4 appearances.
Hot stat: Santos Laguna have scored just 5 goals total in their last 5 matches, exactly the same number Rondón alone has scored for Pachuca in that identical span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio TSM Corona, Torreon |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 05:05 CEST |
Santos Laguna vs Pachuca prediction
We predict Pachuca to win this one, though perhaps not by a wide margin. Pachuca’s away form has been steady, drawing three of their last five and losing none, while their attack carries far more firepower through Rondón and Idrissi than anything Santos Laguna can offer defensively. Santos Laguna’s own win came against a Toluca side that got complacent, and repeating that trick against a more organized Pachuca back line looks unlikely. To be honest, backing Pachuca with both teams scoring feels like the sharper angle, since Santos Laguna have found the net in three of their last five games despite the poor results.
Style-wise, Pachuca commit more fouls (71 versus 42 for Santos Laguna) and pick up more cards (13 versus 9) across the last five matches, suggesting a scrappier approach that could produce a busy afternoon for the referee. Santos Laguna’s passing numbers (1727 attempted, 1451 accurate) actually edge Pachuca’s (1626 attempted, 1325 accurate), so possession may not tell the full story here. Pachuca’s superior shot volume (82 to 78) combined with their higher fouling rate points toward a match where they dominate territory but concede set-piece chances, keeping Santos Laguna alive in this fixture.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Pachuca win and BTTS |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Santos Laguna’s form has been erratic all season, but their most recent showing at Toluca stands out. A 3-2 away win, built on goals from Bullaude and contributions across the front line, gave them a rare bright spot in an otherwise dismal campaign that has produced only 2 wins from 9 league matches. In our preview of Toluca vs Santos Laguna we called a comfortable Toluca win by two or more goals with no BTTS, and the 3-2 result went firmly against us, Santos Laguna scored three times and won the match outright. Before that they lost to Juarez and Cruz Azul, results that keep them anchored to 17th place with a minus-6 goal difference.
Pachuca’s last match ended 2-2 against Club Tijuana, a result that continued their run of not losing in five straight games, even if it denied them three points. Before that draw they beat Atlante 3-0 and Juarez 2-0, showing the attacking depth that Rondón and Idrissi provide up front. In our preview of Pachuca vs Club Tijuana we called a Pachuca win with both teams scoring, and the 2-2 scoreline meant the BTTS half of that call landed while the win did not. Pachuca’s underlying numbers, 8 goals scored in their last 5 games against just 5 conceded, suggest they remain the more reliable attacking side heading into Torreon.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Santos Laguna | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 5 | 7 |
Pachuca have won 2 of the last 4 meetings with Santos Laguna, with one draw and one Santos Laguna win completing the record, giving the visitors a slight edge in this recent sample.
🚨Check out our dedicated Santos Laguna vs Pachuca stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Pachuca the favourite
- Moneyline Santos Laguna 3.00 | Pachuca 2.13
- Draw 3.55
Bookmakers give Pachuca roughly a 43% implied chance of winning against 31% for Santos Laguna and 26% for the draw. That pricing lines up with the underlying numbers, Pachuca’s unbeaten run and superior attacking output justify their status as favorites, though the odds on Santos Laguna remain generous given how they dismantled Toluca just one match ago. We see value in the draw price for punters who trust Santos Laguna’s away resilience more than the market currently does.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santos Laguna possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Acevedo
- DF: Felipe Sánchez, Mauricio Cuevas, Franco Pardo, Jonathan Geovanni Pérez Sánchez, Efrain Orona
- MF: Francisco Villalba, Kevin Palacios, Ezequiel Bullaude, Javier Guemez
- FW: Diego González
Renato Paiva sticks with the back-five setup his side has used all campaign, a 5-4-1 designed to shore up a defense that has leaked 15 goals in 9 league matches. Bullaude remains the creative spark to watch, his 15 shots in 4 games dwarf every other outfield player’s output, and Villalba’s box-to-box contribution (150 passes, 1 goal, 1 assist) keeps the midfield ticking.
Pachuca possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Moreno
- DF: Sergio Barreto, Francisco Venegas, Carlos Sánchez, Eduardo Dos Santos
- MF: Christian Rivera, Sergio Rodríguez, Rodolfo Pizarro, Oussama Idrissi, Javier Vallejo
- FW: Salomón Rondón
Benjamín Mora fields his usual 4-2-3-1, with Rivera and Rodríguez screening the back four while Pizarro, Idrissi and Vallejo rotate behind Rondón. Rondón is the obvious player to watch given his 5 goals in 5 games, and Idrissi’s willingness to shoot (6 attempts in 4 games) makes him a threat from the wing as well.
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Santos Laguna. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Pachuca to edge this one, likely by a single goal, with both teams finding the net. Rondón’s goal-scoring form gives Pachuca the cutting edge Santos Laguna’s defense has struggled to contain all season, while Santos Laguna’s own attacking upturn, shown against Toluca, should be enough to get on the scoresheet even in defeat. A 2-1 or 2-2 finish looks the most realistic script, and the card market is worth a glance too given Pachuca’s higher fouling rate this campaign.
