Sofia Quijada
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Osasuna host Athletic Bilbao at El Sadar on Saturday evening with the two clubs moving in opposite directions. The hosts sit 15th on 11 points after three defeats in their last five league games, while Athletic climbed to seventh on the back of a 4-0 win over Getafe and a 2-1 derby success against Real Sociedad. Three points in Pamplona would lift Edin Terzic’s side above Sevilla into sixth, and the form gap between these teams shows in the sharpest way possible: Athletic have scored 13 goals across their last five matches, Osasuna have conceded 11 in the same run. Alex Berenguer, with three goals and three assists in five, is the visitor to fear, while veteran Raúl García, four goals in his last five, carries Osasuna’s main threat.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao to win at around 2.11, with a 1-2 scoreline the most probable finish. The visitors control games: 2641 passes and 51 interceptions across their last five, against Osasuna’s 2157 passes and 37 interceptions, and that possession edge should tell against a defence that has shipped 11 goals in five. Osasuna’s route back into matches runs through set plays and second balls, where Budimir and Raúl García live, so a clean sheet for Athletic looks unlikely. The away win at 2.11 is the value play; the market prices it at 46% probability, and our read of the form gap puts it closer to 50%.
Temperament shapes this fixture too. Osasuna commit 70 fouls and collect 14 yellow cards across their last five, a physical, disruptive approach that breaks rhythm but concedes territory and free kicks in dangerous zones. Berenguer has already scored once direct from a free kick this season. Athletic foul less (58) and stay disciplined (9 yellows), which suits a visiting side that wants the ball rolling. Expect Osasuna to go long and wide through Bretones and Rosier, Athletic to overload the wide channels with Iñaki Williams and Berenguer. The foul count also raises card risk for the hosts, a useful angle for in-play traders.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Athletic Bilbao to win & over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Osasuna: recent form
Two wins and three defeats in the last five tell the story. Jagoba Arrasate’s men beat Racing Santander 2-0 and hammered Atletico Calatayud 6-0 in the cup, but league defeats to Real Betis (2-5), Sevilla (0-2) and, last time out, Deportivo La Coruna (1-2) have drained confidence. In our preview of Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna we backed Deportivo on the Draw No Bet line in a tight, low-scoring game, and the 2-1 result delivered the home call while sinking the under. The Riazor defeat summed Osasuna up: competitive, physical, and ultimately undone by defensive errors. Eleven goals conceded in five matches, plus a league attack of just 11 goals in 11 games, leaves them reliant on Budimir (three goals) and Raúl García (four) for anything going forward.
Athletic Bilbao: recent form
Athletic’s season swung on a five-match losing run earlier in the autumn, and the recovery since has been emphatic: six wins in their last ten, capped by the 2-1 derby win over Real Sociedad. In our preview of Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad we tipped Real Sociedad to edge the derby or at worst share the points, and the 2-1 result went against us. The performance, if not our ticket, confirmed the upturn. Unai Simón made key stops, Berenguer created and finished at will, and the 4-0 win over Getafe a week earlier showed the ceiling of this attack. The 1-3 stumble at Levante is the cautionary note on their travels, and it is why we stop short of a handicap bet.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
The last six meetings are dead even: two wins each and two draws. Athletic won the most recent league meeting 1-0 in April 2026, while Osasuna’s wins came in the Copa del Rey (3-2) and a September 2025 friendly. The aggregated numbers from each side’s last five matches frame the tactical contrast:
| Statistic | Osasuna | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 11 | 13 |
| Total shots | 78 | 79 |
| Free kicks | 43 | 68 |
| Corner kicks | 24 | 29 |
| Total fouls | 70 | 58 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 84% | 86% |
| Interceptions | 37 | 51 |
| Offsides | 13 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite
- Moneyline Osasuna 3.55 | Athletic Bilbao 2.11
- Draw 3.46
Those prices imply roughly 28% for Osasuna, 29% for the draw and 47% for Athletic, matching the bookmaker model of 27/27/46 almost exactly. Quotes on the away win sit in a tight 2.08-2.18 band across the major books, so the line is stable and there is no soft number to hunt. We rate Athletic slightly shorter than the market given the form and squad-quality gap, which makes 2.11 the value side of the ledger. The draw at 3.46 is the fallback for anyone wary of El Sadar, though Athletic won the most recent league meeting between these sides 1-0.
Possible Starting Lineups
Osasuna possible starting eleven
- GK: Aitor Fernández
- DF: Valentín Rosier, Alejandro Catena, Enzo Boyomo, Abel Bretones
- MF: Lucas Torró, Jon Moncayola, Moi Gómez, Iker Muñoz, Raúl García
- FW: Ante Budimir
Arrasate sticks with his 4-2-3-1. Fernández edges Sergio Herrera on minutes and save volume, nine stops in five, behind the Catena-Boyomo axis. Torró and Moncayola screen, Moi Gómez connects play between the lines, and Raúl García attacks from the left on four goals in five. Budimir, 13 shots in five, remains the target for crosses, with Jonathan Dubasin, 14 shots himself, pushing hard for a start.
Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simón
- DF: Hugo Rincón, Aitor Paredes, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche
- MF: Mikel Jauregizar, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Iñaki Williams, Peio Canales, Alex Berenguer
- FW: Maroan Sannadi
Terzic’s 4-2-3-1 has settled. Simón, 12 saves in five, starts behind a back line steadied by Laporte’s return, his red card in three games the only blot. Jauregizar and Gerenabarrena shield, Iñaki Williams and Berenguer flank Canales, and Sannadi leads the line. Berenguer, three goals, three assists and a direct free kick among them, is the player Osasuna must foul early or chase all night. Robert Navarro and Nico Williams offer fresh legs from the bench.
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Osasuna. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao to win 1-2 at El Sadar. Their control of the ball, 13 goals in five and Osasuna’s 11 conceded in the same window point to an open game with chances at both ends, which is why over 2.5 goals and both teams to score join the away win on our card. Osasuna’s physicality, 70 fouls and 14 yellows in five, will make this uncomfortable, and Budimir plus Raúl García guarantee the hosts a puncher’s chance. To be honest, the away win at 2.11 is the bet we would stake on, with Berenguer anytime scorer as the player angle and over 9.5 corners rounding out the card. Perhaps the El Sadar crowd drags it to 2-2, but everything in the data says Athletic’s momentum travels.
