Sofia Quijada
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San Mamés hosts the Basque derby with Real Sociedad sitting fifth on 19 points and Athletic languishing in eighth with 12, a reversal of the usual pecking order between these two clubs. Athletic beat Sociedad 1-0 in a club friendly back in October, their only win over this opponent in the last five meetings, which keeps the psychological edge interesting even with the league gap favoring the visitors.
Mikel Oyarzabal has been the clearest standout for either side, racking up two goals and three assists across his last five appearances for Real Sociedad. On the home side, Alex Berenguer has matched that output with two goals and three assists of his own, making him the player most likely to decide this derby from Athletic’s end.
Hot stat: Real Sociedad have found the net in every one of their last five matches, scoring 17 times in that stretch, including a 6-0 rout of Lillestrom, numbers that dwarf Athletic’s 11 goals over the same span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad prediction
We lean towards Real Sociedad here, backed by a seven-point cushion in the table, a 45-goal attack built around Oyarzabal and Guedes, and a form line that reads four wins from six in the last month. Athletic have picked up results lately, winning three of their last five, but a 0-0 draw against bottom-half Valencia exposes how toothless they can look against organized defenses, and Sociedad defend in better shape than Valencia do. A narrow away win or a high-scoring draw both look live, so our desk rates Real Sociedad double chance combined with over 2.5 goals as the sharpest angle on the board.
Athletic average 47 fouls and seven yellow cards across their last five matches, a physical approach under Edin Terzic, while Real Sociedad commit 56 fouls but keep possession longer with 2,388 completed passes against Athletic’s 1,967, pointing to a game where the visitors should control tempo even if Athletic win individual duels. That pass accuracy gap, roughly 88% to 85% in Sociedad’s favor, suggests the away side can dictate rhythm and force Athletic into the kind of transition football that opens space for Oyarzabal and Kubo.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Real Sociedad double chance (draw or win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Athletic’s last outing was a 6-1 demolition of Prat, a mismatch that inflates confidence more than it proves anything against La Liga opposition. Before that, a 4-0 win over Getafe and a 1-3 home loss to Levante paint a side that beats weaker teams but struggles against anyone with structure, and the 0-0 stalemate with Valencia two games earlier backs that read up. In our preview of Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe we called a home win paired with under 2.5 goals as the value play, and the 4-0 scoreline delivered the win but blew past our goals total, a reminder that Athletic’s attack can suddenly click when the opponent sits deep.
Real Sociedad arrive in sharper form, having beaten Levante 2-1 last time out on the back of a 6-0 thrashing of Lillestrom and a 5-2 win over Malaga. Only a 1-1 draw with Royale Union SG interrupts an otherwise dominant run of five matches, during which they have scored at will against sides ranked both above and below them. In our preview of Real Sociedad vs Levante we backed a Sociedad win with both teams scoring, perhaps 2-1, and the actual 2-1 result landed the call exactly as predicted.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Athletic Bilbao | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 7 meetings) | 5 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite
- Moneyline Athletic Bilbao 2.15 | Real Sociedad 3.20
- Draw 3.70
Bookmakers lean on home advantage here, pricing Athletic as favourites at roughly 2.15 despite sitting three places and seven points below Real Sociedad in the table. We think that price undervalues the visitors, whose attacking numbers over the last month, four wins from six and 17 goals scored, outstrip anything Athletic have shown outside of beating weaker sides. The draw at 3.70 holds some appeal given how tight recent head-to-head meetings have been, but perhaps the away price offers better long-term value for punters willing to back current form over reputation.
Possible Starting Lineups
Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simón
- DF: Aitor Paredes, Hugo Rincón, Yeray Álvarez, Johaneko Louis-Jean
- MF: Peio Canales, Mikel Jauregizar, Alejandro Rego Mora, Beñat Gerenabarrena
- FW: Alex Berenguer, Iñaki Williams
Terzic sticks with the 4-4-2 that has produced four games unbeaten domestically, with Berenguer given license to roam from the right and link with Williams up top. Paredes anchors the back line having played every minute available over the last five matches, while Jauregizar’s physical presence in midfield will be needed to match Sociedad’s ball retention.
Real Sociedad possible starting eleven
- GK: Álex Remiro
- DF: Jon Martin, Igor Zubeldia, Mamadou Sarr, Aihen Muñoz
- MF: Jon Gorrotxategi, Carlos Soler
- FW: Mikel Oyarzabal, Luka Sučić, Gonçalo Guedes, Sergio Gómez
Matarazzo’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Gorrotxategi and Soler to shield the back four while Oyarzabal, Sučić and Guedes rotate behind Sergio Gómez, the player with the most minutes among the forward options. Oyarzabal remains the one to watch, having directly contributed to five goals in his last five appearances.
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Real Sociedad. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Real Sociedad edge this derby or at worst share the points, with goals at both ends given how open Athletic have looked against anyone outside the bottom half. Oyarzabal’s involvement in five of his team’s last five goal contributions makes him the single most important player on the pitch, and Athletic’s suspect finishing against Valencia and Levante suggests they will need a big game from Berenguer just to keep pace. Our call: Real Sociedad double chance, over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, with a 1-2 or 2-2 scoreline the most probable finish.
