Levi Rothermund
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OFI Crete welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Heraklion carrying almost zero momentum, while the German side arrives unbeaten in its last ten outings across competitions. Christos Kontis has watched his team win just once in four matches during the last month, a stat that sits awkwardly next to Leverkusen’s perfect four-from-four stretch under Carles Martínez. The interesting wrinkle here is that OFI actually has the better defensive discipline on paper over 90 minutes rarely, their fouls count is high but their red card record stays clean, whereas Leverkusen draws fewer cards despite constant pressure forward. That contrast could shape how referees manage this one.
Patrik Schick has been the standout for Leverkusen lately, scoring four goals in his last three appearances and looking sharper than at any point this season. On the home side, Thiago Nuss gives OFI something resembling a threat up front, with two goals and an assist across his last four games, making him the one name Leverkusen’s back line can’t afford to ignore completely.
Hot stat: Bayer Leverkusen have scored in every one of their last five matches and racked up 14 goals in that stretch, an average near three per game, while OFI Crete have conceded in four of their last five and let in 11 goals over that same run.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:45 CEST |
OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
We think Leverkusen wins this comfortably, but the real value sits somewhere beyond the straight moneyline given how short the odds run. A Leverkusen win combined with over 2.5 goals looks like the smarter angle. Their attack has scored 10 goals in five games, and OFI’s defense has shown cracks against sides with real quality going forward, conceding three or more on multiple occasions recently.
OFI commits plenty of fouls, 36 across their last five matches against Leverkusen’s 38, so card counts should run similar, though OFI’s eight yellows compared to Leverkusen’s three suggest the home side plays a rougher, more reactive style when under pressure. Leverkusen’s passing numbers, over 1580 completed passes at better accuracy, point to a team that will dominate possession and force OFI into exactly that kind of defensive scrambling.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bayer Leverkusen win and Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
OFI Crete’s recent run reads poorly. Three losses and a draw in their last four fixtures, including a 3-4 shootout against AO Kalamata and a flat 1-2 defeat to Rennes. In our preview of Rennes vs OFI Crete we called a Rennes win with both sides scoring around a 2-1 or 3-1 margin, and the 1-2 result went in that same direction, so the call landed. Before that, OFI shipped three without reply against AEK Athens, a worrying sign given Leverkusen hits far harder than AEK does on current form.
Bayer Leverkusen keeps winning, and comfortably. Their last match saw them edge Freiburg 2-1 away from home. In our preview of Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg we leaned toward a narrow home win with both teams scoring, something close to 2-1, and that’s exactly what played out, so the call landed. Before that they thrashed Lech Poznan 4-0 and beat Mainz 4-3 in a wild one, scoring at least twice in every one of their last five outings.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
OFI Crete and Bayer Leverkusen have no recent competitive meetings on record. This fixture marks their first known encounter in our dataset, so there’s no head-to-head history to lean on here.
🚨Check out our dedicated OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen stats page for more info.
OFI Crete. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bayer Leverkusen the favourite
- Moneyline OFI Crete 10.90 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.22
- Draw 6.94
The odds leave almost no room for debate. Books rate Leverkusen around 77% to win outright, and honestly the gap in squad quality and recent form backs that up fully. OFI’s price near 11.00 reflects how little bookmakers trust their defense against a side scoring freely across Europe this season. A draw at close to 7.00 feels generous only if OFI parks everything behind the ball, which given their foul numbers and lineup, seems unlikely to hold for 90 minutes.
Possible Starting Lineups
OFI Crete possible starting eleven
- GK: Nikolaos Christogeorgos
- DF: Lorenzo Dickmann, Krešimir Krizmanić, Achilleas Poungouras, Borja González
- MF: Andreas Bouchalakis, Zisis Karachalios, Athanasios Androutsos, Georgios Kanellopoulos, Giannis Apostolakis
- FW: Thiago Nuss
Kontis should stick with his usual 4-2-3-1, leaning on the five-man midfield band to absorb Leverkusen’s passing waves. Christogeorgos has started every recent match and his save count backs that trust. Nuss remains the one attacking outlet worth watching, since he’s OFI’s most productive forward by goals and assists combined over the last month.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting eleven
- GK: Mark Flekken
- DF: Lucas Vázquez, Edmond Tapsoba, Loic Bade, Miguel Gutiérrez
- MF: Robert Andrich, Aleix García, Ibrahim Maza, Malik Tillman, Nathan Tella
- FW: Patrik Schick
Martínez keeps faith with the same 4-2-3-1 that’s delivered wins across the board. Andrich and García shield the back four while Maza and Tillman rotate behind Schick, who’s the clear player to watch given his four goals in three starts. Flekken’s passing numbers suggest he’ll be comfortable building from the back against OFI’s press.
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Bayer Leverkusen. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team sees Leverkusen taking this one with goals to spare. OFI’s defense has cracked against far weaker attacks than Schick’s, and the gap in passing accuracy and shot volume is too wide to ignore. We’re backing Leverkusen to win and over 2.5 total goals, with maybe a scoreline close to 3-0 or 3-1. OFI could nick a consolation if their set-piece routines click, they’ve taken 58 free kicks in five games, but stopping Leverkusen from scoring multiple times here looks like a tall order on current form.
