Levi Rothermund
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Bayer Leverkusen welcome Freiburg to the BayArena with both clubs riding genuinely strong starts to the campaign. Here’s the twist though: Freiburg, not Bayern or Dortmund, currently sit top of the Bundesliga table. Leverkusen are fourth, just three points back, and unbeaten in their last four. Carles Martínez’s side have scored freely at home this season, while Julian Schuster’s Freiburg have quietly built the division’s best goal difference. Neither club looks like it wants to slow down.
Patrik Schick has been the standout figure for Leverkusen lately, four goals in his last three appearances, and he looks like the man most likely to hurt Freiburg again on Saturday. For the visitors, Vincenzo Grifo keeps popping up with goals and assists from wide areas, and his set-piece delivery could matter against a Leverkusen backline that has shipped goals in bunches this season.
Hot stat: Freiburg have conceded just four goals in five league games this season, the best defensive record in the entire division, better even than Bayern Munich’s. That’s a sharp contrast to a club ranked 43rd globally against Leverkusen sitting 18th.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg prediction
We lean toward Leverkusen to win here, but not comfortably. Home form has been perfect over the last month, four wins from four, and Schick is scoring at a rate few strikers in the league can match right now. Freiburg’s away record this season has still been solid though, and their defense is the stingiest in the Bundesliga, so backing a one-sided scoreline feels risky. Our view is Leverkusen edge it, something like 2-1 or 3-2, with goals at both ends rather than a clean sheet for either side.
Style-wise, both teams foul at a nearly identical rate, Leverkusen committing 40 fouls across their last five games against Freiburg’s 41, and cards have been rare for both (five yellows for Leverkusen, four for Freiburg). Passing accuracy favors the hosts slightly, around 87% completion compared to roughly 84% for Freiburg, which should let Leverkusen dictate tempo at home. Corner numbers are dead level at 17 apiece over the sample, so expect a fairly even set-piece battle rather than a lopsided one.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Patrik Schick to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Leverkusen’s recent run reads like a team finding its scoring boots again: 4-0 over Lech Poznan, 4-3 against Mainz, 2-0 against RB Leipzig, 2-0 past Celje, and a 2-2 draw-turned-win-run against Augsburg before that. The 4-3 and 2-2 results hint at a defense that still leaks goals under pressure, even as the attack fires. In our preview of Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen we backed a Leverkusen win with goals at both ends, and the 4-0 result delivered the win comfortably, even if Lech never got on the scoresheet themselves.
Freiburg have been nearly as sharp. Their last outing produced a 3-2 win over Jablonec, following a 2-1 win against Schalke, a 4-2 win over Luzern, a 2-2 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt, and a thumping 5-0 against Gladbach. That’s three wins and a draw in four, and the only blemish came in a game they still didn’t lose. In our preview of Freiburg vs Jablonec we called for a Freiburg win to nil, and the 3-2 scoreline delivered the win but not the clean sheet we leaned on, so the call only partly landed.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 12 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg stats page for more info.
Freiburg. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bayer Leverkusen the favourite
- Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen 1.70 | Freiburg 4.33
- Draw 4.20
Bookmakers give Leverkusen around 57% implied win probability against Freiburg’s 21%, a draw sitting at 22%. That gap feels a touch wide given Freiburg’s defensive numbers this season, but home advantage and Schick’s scoring form justify most of it. We think there’s value hiding in the draw price if Freiburg’s defense holds up the way it has all year, though our main lean still sits with the hosts.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting eleven
- GK: Mark Flekken
- DF: Edmond Tapsoba, Miguel Gutiérrez, Facundo Medina, Jarell Quansah
- MF: Robert Andrich, Aleix García, Ibrahim Maza, Malik Tillman, Afonso Moreira
- FW: Patrik Schick
Schick leads the line again after his recent scoring burst, and Martínez has mostly stuck with the 4-2-3-1 that’s brought four straight wins. Andrich and García anchor the midfield, giving Maza and Tillman freedom to push forward behind Schick.
Freiburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Mio Backhaus
- DF: Matthias Ginter, Jordy Makengo, Philipp Lienhart, Philipp Treu
- MF: Maximilian Eggestein, Yannick Engelhardt, Yuito Suzuki, Vincenzo Grifo, Derry Lionel Scherhant
- FW: Igor Matanovic
Schuster also sticks with 4-2-3-1. Eggestein’s two goals from midfield this spell make him worth tracking, and Grifo’s creativity down the left could be the difference against a Leverkusen defense that’s been occasionally loose this season.
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Bayer Leverkusen. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team leans Leverkusen here, but honestly not by much. The hosts have the sharper attack and home comfort on their side, yet Freiburg’s defensive numbers are too good to dismiss outright. We’re backing Leverkusen to win with both teams scoring, something close to 2-1 or 3-2, and Schick to keep adding to his tally. Maybe Freiburg nick a point if their defense holds firm for 90 minutes, but the weight of recent form points toward a narrow home win.
Read also: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 17 Oct 2026
