Rafael Nogueira
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Novorizontino welcome a Ponte Preta side that has all but surrendered its season already, sitting rock bottom of Série B with a goal difference of minus 43, the worst mark in the entire division. Novorizontino, meanwhile, sit 7th and still have a genuine shot at the promotion playoff places. The gap between these two clubs shows up everywhere, in the table, in recent form, and in bookmaker pricing that puts Novorizontino at roughly 87% to win outright. What makes this fixture worth a second look is Ponte Preta’s away form specifically, a run that has produced almost nothing but defeats and conceded goals in bulk.
Robson has carried much of Novorizontino’s attacking threat in recent weeks, leading his side in shots and chipping in goals from the center-forward role, and his movement against a leaky Ponte Preta backline looks like a clear avenue for more goals. On the other side, David da Hora remains Ponte Preta’s most involved forward by shot volume, though his side has given him almost nothing to work with offensively. Watch too how Jordi performs in goal for the hosts, given he faces a team that has scored just once in its last five matches.
Hot stat: Ponte Preta have managed a single goal across their last five matches combined, while Novorizontino have scored seven in that same span, a gap that tells most of the story before kickoff.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase, New Horizons |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta prediction
We predict a comfortable Novorizontino win, and the value play goes beyond the moneyline given the short price attached to it. Ponte Preta have won once in their last fifteen league matches and have lost nine of their last ten, shipping 59 goals across 28 games this season. Novorizontino’s attack has punished weaker defenses all year, reflected in a +19 goal difference that ranks among the best in the league. Our staff leans toward Novorizontino to win by two or more goals, with BTTS leaning “no” given how rarely Ponte Preta have troubled opposing goalkeepers lately.
Style-wise, Novorizontino move the ball with far more composure, their pass accuracy and shot volume over the last five matches dwarf Ponte Preta’s output, and they commit fewer fouls while still winning more duels through interceptions. Ponte Preta foul more often and pick up more cards, a pattern that fits a team chasing the game from deep positions, which should open space for Novorizontino’s forwards in transition.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Novorizontino to win by 2+ goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Novorizontino arrive on the back of a 2-0 win over Nautico, their fifth win in the last ten league outings, a run that also includes a 3-0 rout of Goias and only one defeat in that stretch, against Ceara. The attack has been reliable, scoring in four of the last five matches, and the only blemish was a scoreless draw against Sao Bernardo. In our preview of Nautico vs Novorizontino we backed Novorizontino’s double chance paired with BTTS Yes, and the 2-0 result confirmed the double chance side of that call even though Nautico failed to register on the scoresheet.
Ponte Preta’s last match ended in a 0-2 home defeat to Juventude, extending a miserable run that includes four losses in their last five, the only exception a 1-0 win over CRB. Their 0-6 collapse against Londrina PR a fortnight prior remains the low point of a season defined by defensive collapse. In our preview of Ponte Preta vs Juventude we called a comfortable Juventude win built around a clean sheet, and the 0-2 scoreline delivered exactly that.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Across their four most recent competitive meetings, excluding this upcoming fixture, Novorizontino have scored 4 goals to Ponte Preta’s 3, with Novorizontino winning two of those encounters outright.
| Statistic | Novorizontino | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta stats page for more info.
Ponte Preta. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite
- Moneyline Novorizontino 1.06 | Ponte Preta 17.00 – 19.00
- Draw 12.00
These prices reflect the gap between the two clubs almost perfectly. A 1.06 price on Novorizontino leaves little margin for error, but given Ponte Preta’s defensive record and their away form this season, the market pricing feels fair rather than inflated. Perhaps the only real value in the match lies outside the straight moneyline, in goal margin or corner markets, since the outright result looks close to a formality.
Possible Starting Lineups
Novorizontino possible starting eleven
- GK: Jordi
- DF: Eduardo Brock, Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho, Madson Ferreira dos Santos, Carlinhos
- MF: Luís Oyama, Juninho, Leonardo Naldi de Matos, Matheus Henrique Bianqui, Nicolas Morês da Cruz
- FW: Robson
This group has featured most consistently across the last five matches and fits Enderson Moreira’s favored 4-2-3-1, with Oyama and Juninho screening the back four while Naldi, Bianqui, and Morês rotate behind Robson. Robson remains the player to watch given his shot volume and recent scoring form.
Ponte Preta possible starting eleven
- DF: Diego, Danilo Barcelos, Lucas Cunha
- MF: Murilo Henrique Cavalcante, André da Silva Lima
- FW: David da Hora
Ponte Preta’s available data points to a heavily rotated squad, with Diego and Danilo Barcelos the most regular fixtures at the back. David da Hora continues to lead the line despite limited service, and Gilson Kleina’s side will likely lean on a cautious 4-2-3-1 setup to limit further damage rather than chase the game early.
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Novorizontino. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Novorizontino win this one with room to spare, likely by two goals or more. The combination of home form, a +19 goal difference, and an opponent that has won once in fifteen league matches makes this close to a formality on paper. To be honest, the only uncertainty is the margin rather than the winner, and our staff sees the goal-line and corner markets as the smarter ways to extract value from a heavily one-sided fixture.
