Rafael Nogueira
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Nautico welcome Novorizontino to Aflitos with both sides separated by just two points and a single spot in the Série B table. Nautico sit 10th on 39 points with a flat goal difference of zero, while Novorizontino sit 9th on 41 but boast the best goal difference in the entire division at +17. That split, attack versus defense, decides most of the storylines heading into this one. Bruno Pivetti’s side has leaked goals at an alarming rate lately, conceding 10 across their last five matches, and Enderson Moreira’s Novorizontino arrive on the back of a bright run that includes a 3-0 statement win over Goias.
Watch Robson for Novorizontino. He has fired 20 shots in his last five outings, the highest volume on either roster, and already has two goals to show for it. On the home side, Vinicius has been Nautico’s spark with three goals and an assist from midfield over the same stretch, carrying most of their creative burden.
Hot stat: Novorizontino’s +17 goal difference is the best mark in the whole Série B standings this season, built on 42 goals scored in just 26 matches, a number Nautico’s leaky 32-scored, 32-conceded record cannot match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio dos Aflitos, Recife |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Nautico vs Novorizontino prediction
Our punters team leans Novorizontino here, on a double chance basis rather than a straight win. Nautico have won just two of their last six matches and their defense has been porous on both road and home outings recently, while Novorizontino arrive with two wins and two draws from their last six, a far steadier platform. The visitors also carry the superior shot volume, 108 attempts in their last five games against Nautico’s 77, suggesting they create more and waste less.
Discipline could play a part too. Nautico have committed 85 fouls across their last five matches against Novorizontino’s 57, a gap that hints at a side chasing the game more often than controlling it. Pass accuracy sits close for both clubs, around 83% for Nautico and 80% for Novorizontino, so neither side should dominate territory outright, but the foul count points to Nautico defending under pressure rather than dictating terms. That combination, leaky defense plus more fouling, tilts the match toward goals at both ends with Novorizontino doing the heavier damage.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Novorizontino Double Chance & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Nautico’s last match ended 1-1 away at Fortaleza, a result that followed a 3-1 win over Sport Recife but also sits inside a run that includes a 0-3 loss to Cuiaba and a 1-2 defeat to America MG. The pattern is streaky: capable of beating mid-table sides but prone to collapses against organized defenses, with five goals conceded in those two losses alone. In our preview of Fortaleza vs Nautico we called a controlled Fortaleza win built on their defensive solidity, and the 1-1 scoreline went against that read, with Nautico grinding out a point on the road instead.
Novorizontino’s most recent outing was the 3-0 win over Goias, continuing a run that also includes a goalless draw with Sao Bernardo and a narrow 1-2 loss to Ceara. The attack has been reliable, scoring in four of their last five, while the back line conceded just four goals in that same stretch, the platform behind their league-best goal difference. In our preview of Novorizontino vs Goias we predicted a comfortable home win paired with Over 2.5 goals, and the 3-0 final score delivered on both counts.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Nautico and Novorizontino have no recent competitive meetings on record ahead of this fixture, so there is no head-to-head sample to lean on for trends between these two clubs this season.
🚨Check out our dedicated Nautico vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.
Nautico. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite
- Moneyline Nautico 3.25 | Novorizontino 2.15
- Draw 3.30
Bookmakers give Novorizontino a clear 42% implied win chance against 30% for Nautico and 28% for the draw. That pricing matches the underlying numbers well, Novorizontino’s superior goal difference and tighter recent defensive record justify being favorites even on the road, and at odds above 2.10 they represent fair value rather than an overpriced favorite. Backing the draw at over 3.20 looks like the weakest of the three options given how open Nautico’s defense has looked lately.
Possible Starting Lineups
Nautico possible starting eleven
- GK: Muriel
- DF: Alberto Magno, Reginaldo, Ryan Santos, Igor Fernandes
- MF: Jean Carlos, Vinicius, Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira, Samuel
- FW: Benjamín Borasi, Derek Freitas Ribeiro
Pivetti keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 shape used across his last five matches. Muriel, with 17 saves on the campaign and a full set of minutes, holds the gloves ahead of Gastón Guruceaga. Vinicius remains the player to watch given his three goals and creative numbers from midfield, while Borasi and Derek Freitas Ribeiro rotate at the point of attack depending on matchup.
Novorizontino possible starting eleven
- GK: Jordi
- DF: Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas, Madson Ferreira dos Santos, Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho, Eduardo Brock
- MF: Luís Oyama, Matheus Henrique Bianqui, Juninho, Leonardo Naldi de Matos
- FW: Robson, Nicolas Morês da Cruz
Enderson Moreira also sticks with 4-2-3-1. Jordi starts in goal off five clean appearances and five saves logged over the sample. Robson is the one to track up front given his shot volume and two goals, with Nicolas Morês offering support off the left when Novorizontino break at pace.
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Novorizontino. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Novorizontino edge this one, not by a wide margin but enough to justify the double chance play at the current price. Nautico’s defense has been the issue across their last five matches, 10 goals conceded, and Novorizontino’s attack has consistently punished weaker backlines this season, reflected in that league-best +17 goal difference. Perhaps the cleanest read is goals at both ends, Nautico do score, averaging 1.6 per game recently, but Novorizontino should score more often and more freely. Our staff sees value in Novorizontino Double Chance combined with BTTS Yes, with the corner count also tilting toward the over given both sides average well over six per match.
