Liam Duckstein
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North Macedonia host Slovenia in Skopje on Monday night in a League B Group 1 fixture that carries very different stakes for each side. Slovenia sit second in the table with eight points from five games. North Macedonia remain bottom and still wait for their first point. The hosts have not won a match this year, so the pressure sits firmly on their shoulders.
Slovenia hold the stronger record in this group, but the head-to-head story is interesting. Slovenia beat North Macedonia 2-0 in their earlier meeting, and that result came despite Slovenia producing only modest attacking numbers. Elmin Rastoder remains the main threat for the hosts after scoring their only goal in the group so far. Slovenia will look to Adam Gnezda Čerin to control the tempo from midfield, since he completed 47 passes in his most recent outing.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League B Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Nacional Arena Todor Proeski, Skopje |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
North Macedonia vs Slovenia prediction
We predict a Slovenia win. The price of 1.57 is short, but the underlying numbers support the favourite. Bookmakers make Slovenia around 60 percent to take the points, and our view sits close to that figure. Slovenia have won three of their nine matches this year, while the hosts have yet to win one. Slovenia are also the more settled side, with a steady group performance and a clear plan in midfield.
Slovenia do not need to score many goals to take the three points. Their 4-2-3-1 setup is built to keep the ball, and their passing volume of 308 across their recent matches gives them control without much risk. North Macedonia averaged more passes, with 393, yet their attacks rarely produced quality chances. Only seven shots in five matches tells the story. The hosts also committed 11 fouls, which hands Slovenia set-piece opportunities that they can use.
Slovenia pick up yellow cards more often than the hosts, with two in recent matches against none for North Macedonia. That discipline issue is worth watching, though it should not change the outcome. Slovenia are the side that dictates the pace, and the hosts have struggled to move the ball through the middle. To be honest, a tight, low-scoring match suits the visitors best.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Slovenia to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
North Macedonia arrive on a rough run. They have lost their last five matches, and their most recent outing ended in a 1-2 defeat to Scotland. In our preview of Scotland vs North Macedonia we called a Scotland win, and the 1-2 scoreline delivered it. The hosts created little in that game and managed only seven shots. Coach Goce Sedloski will need a more direct approach to avoid another low-output display.
Slovenia come into this match with a more mixed picture. Their last game ended goalless against Switzerland, a result that kept them in the chase for the group top spot. In our preview of Slovenia vs Switzerland we called a Switzerland win with goals at both ends, and the 0-0 draw went against us. Slovenia still had 14 interceptions in that match, which shows the defensive structure holds up well. Coach Bostjan Cesar has a squad that can grind out results when the attack struggles.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | North Macedonia | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated North Macedonia vs Slovenia stats page for more info.
North Macedonia. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Slovenia the favourite
- Moneyline North Macedonia 6.35 | Slovenia 1.57
- Draw 3.82
The implied probabilities from these prices sit near 16 percent for the hosts, 26 percent for the draw, and 64 percent for Slovenia. The total sits slightly above 100 percent, which is standard for a bookmaker margin. We see no value in backing the hosts at this price, and the draw looks thin given how little both sides have produced in front of goal. Slovenia remain the side to back, even at short odds.
Possible Starting Lineups
North Macedonia possible starting eleven
- GK: Stole Dimitrievski
- DF: Visar Musliu, Ezdjan Alijoski, Mario Mladenovski
- MF: Elif Elmas, Matej Gashtarov, Agon Elezi, Darko Churlinov, Enis Bardhi
- FW: Elmin Rastoder, Ljupche Doriev
We expect North Macedonia to line up in a 3-4-1-2 shape, with Enis Bardhi operating as the link between midfield and attack. Bardhi created a chance in his most recent outing and took four shots, so he is the player to watch. Elmin Rastoder is the main goal threat, having scored the only goal of the group campaign so far. Visar Musliu brings good passing range from the back, and his 47 passes in the last match show his importance to building play.
Slovenia possible starting eleven
- GK: Jan Oblak
- DF: Jaka Bijol, Žan Karničnik, Žan Zaletel, Vanja Drkušić
- MF: Adam Gnezda Čerin, Mark Zabukovnik, Zan Vipotnik, Srđan Kuzmić
- FW: Danijel Sturm, Aljosa Matko
Slovenia are set to start in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Adam Gnezda Čerin and Mark Zabukovnik protecting the back line. Gnezda Čerin is the key figure, as he completed 37 accurate passes from 47 attempts in his last outing. Danijel Sturm offers the main attacking threat up front, and he recorded a shot and a strong passing return. Srđan Kuzmić may push into midfield to add pressure on the hosts’ build-up.
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Slovenia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We back Slovenia to win this match with a low goal total. North Macedonia have scored once in five group games and conceded twelve, which is the weakest return in the section. Slovenia have the better record, the steadier shape, and a clearer route to the points. Perhaps the hosts find a late moment of quality, but we expect Slovenia to control the match and keep a clean sheet.
Read also: North Macedonia vs Slovenia Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated November 2026)
Read also: North Macedonia vs Slovenia Predicted Lineups, Team News & Expected XIs
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