Alex MacQuoid
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Nobody at the bottom of League B Group 1 is having a good autumn, honestly. North Macedonia sit last with nothing to show after two games, no points, no goals, five conceded. Scotland aren’t exactly flying either, a solitary point from a possible six, but the gap in quality between these two sides is still obvious on paper. What’s interesting here is that both teams arrive on the back of losses to the same opponent, Switzerland, by an identical scoreline. That coincidence tells you a lot about where this group currently stands… Switzerland look a class above everyone else, and the fight for second and third is really what this October window is about.
Enis Bardhi remains the one player on the home side capable of unlocking a stubborn defense from a dead ball or a half-chance, he’s taken more shots than any outfield teammate in the last two matches and still carries himself like a man who believes in his team even when the results say otherwise. For Scotland, keep an eye on Lewis Ferguson in midfield. He’s racked up the most passes, the most fouls committed trying to break up play, and he’s been the engine behind most Scottish buildup since Pocognoli took charge.
Hot stat: North Macedonia have failed to score in five consecutive matches across all competitions, conceding nine goals in that stretch without a single reply. That’s a brutal run for a home side that now needs a result just to avoid total embarrassment on their own patch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League B Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Nacional Arena Todor Proeski, Skopje |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
North Macedonia vs Scotland prediction
We think Scotland win this one, not comfortably, but enough to edge it. The value honestly isn’t in backing the favourite outright at these short prices, it’s in combining Scotland’s win with a low-scoring game. North Macedonia haven’t scored in five straight matches and there’s no reason to expect that to change against a Scottish defense that’s conceded just three goals across its last five outings. Scotland’s own attack has been patchy too, so expecting a flood of goals here feels like a stretch.
Style-wise these teams contrast a fair bit. North Macedonia have committed fewer fouls (18) and picked up more yellow cards (6) than Scotland’s 32 fouls and 2 cards across the last five matches, which hints at a scrappier, more card-happy home approach under pressure. Scotland dominate possession and passing numbers, 801 passes at 657 accurate compared to Macedonia’s 885 attempted but only 716 completed… wait, actually Macedonia attempted more passes with a lower accuracy rate relative to volume, suggesting a side forced into longer, less controlled sequences. Scotland’s higher shot count (19 vs 11) backs up the idea that they’ll dictate territory and chances even if they don’t convert at a high rate.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | North Macedonia to fail to score again (6th straight game) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
North Macedonia’s recent form makes for grim reading. Across the last five matches they’ve picked up two draws and three straight losses, with zero wins and, more worryingly, zero goals scored in any of them. The most recent match, a 0-2 defeat at home… well, away, to Slovenia, continued the same pattern that’s defined this team all year: solid enough defensively in patches but completely toothless up front. In our preview of Slovenia vs North Macedonia we backed the Slovenians to win and keep a clean sheet given Macedonia’s scoring drought, and the 0-2 result delivered exactly that. This year as a whole North Macedonia have played six matches without a single win, a 0% winrate that puts their confidence levels about as low as it can get heading into a home game they probably need just to stop the bleeding.
Scotland haven’t been convincing lately either, just one win from their last five, with three losses and a draw mixed in, but there’s more quality in this squad and it shows in the underlying numbers. Their last match was a 0-3 defeat to Switzerland, a game where they were comfortably second best against a genuinely strong opponent. In our preview of Scotland vs Switzerland we called a Swiss win with goals, and the 0-3 scoreline backed that read up pretty cleanly, Scotland’s attacking struggles against sharper opposition were exactly the problem we flagged. Against a side ranked over 3,000 places below them in North Macedonia though, Scotland should find considerably more room to work with, and their 33% winrate this year, built mostly against lesser opposition, suggests they’re capable of grinding out results when the gap in quality is this wide.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two nations haven’t actually faced each other in any recent competitive fixture we have on record, so there’s no head-to-head table to build from recent meetings. That lack of history adds a bit of an unknown to how this particular matchup plays out, even with the form and ranking gap pointing fairly clearly in Scotland’s direction.
🚨Check out our dedicated North Macedonia vs Scotland stats page for more info.
North Macedonia. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Scotland the favourite
- Moneyline North Macedonia 4.80 | Scotland 1.75
- Draw 3.50
The market has this pretty much nailed down to Scotland’s favor, implying something close to 53% for the away win against just 20% for the hosts. Given North Macedonia’s goal drought and bottom-of-group position, that price on Scotland doesn’t scream value on its own, but combined with a low-scoring line it starts to make more sense for us. The draw at roughly 3.50 isn’t completely out of the question either, this group has produced tight, low-event games so far and Macedonia’s defense, while leaky against the top two sides, has shown it can dig in for stretches.
Possible Starting Lineups
North Macedonia possible starting eleven
- GK: Stole Dimitrievski
- DF: Mario Mladenovski, Andrej Stojchevski, Gjoko Zajkov, Visar Musliu, Sebastian Herera
- MF: Elif Elmas, Matej Gashtarov, Enis Bardhi, Jani Atanasov
- FW: Bojan Miovski
Sedloski’s likely setup is the same defensive-minded 5-4-1 that’s shown up in the last five matches, prioritizing bodies behind the ball over attacking width. Bardhi pulls the strings in a deeper role than you’d expect from a player of his profile, while Miovski is left fairly isolated up top, something that’s clearly hurt the scoring numbers all year.
Scotland possible starting eleven
- GK: Angus Gunn
- DF: Scott McKenna, Stephen Welsh, Andrew Robertson, Aaron Hickey
- MF: Billy Gilmour, John McGinn, Lewis Ferguson, Ryan Christie, Ben Gannon-Doak
- FW: Oliver McBurnie
Pocognoli sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that’s defined his short spell so far. Gilmour and McGinn sit a bit deeper to control tempo, Ferguson and Christie look to feed McBurnie, who’s started every recent match up top despite a quiet return in front of goal. Robertson’s experience on the left should matter against a Macedonian side that tends to funnel pressure down the flanks.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Scotland. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our lean here is Scotland to win a scrappy, low-quality affair, probably by a single goal, with North Macedonia extending their scoreless streak to six matches. The numbers back it up pretty clearly: Scotland hold the edge in shots, passing, and overall squad quality, while North Macedonia haven’t found the net in any of their last five outings and sit bottom of the group with nothing to their name. We’d pair Scotland’s win with Under 2.5 total goals and BTTS No, this isn’t a fixture that screams end-to-end football given both teams’ recent defensive struggles mixed with attacking inefficiency. The corner market might offer a bit more upside given Scotland’s territorial dominance in recent games.
Read also: North Macedonia vs Scotland Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 1 Oct 2026
Read also: North Macedonia vs Scotland Predicted Line-ups and Team News: Both Expected XIs
