Nice vs Benfica Prediction: 06.08.2025 UEFA Champions League

The Third Qualifying Round of the UEFA Champions League delivers a fascinating clash in Bergen as Nice face Benfica at Brann Stadion. It’s a duel not just of pedigree, but of resurgence and evolving tactics, with both clubs under new guidance Franck Haise for Nice and Bruno Lage for Benfica. Both teams feature high-possession, attack-minded football, yet differ in tempo and defensive transitions. While Benfica come into this tie with a sharper edge and greater continental experience, Nice arrive buoyed by a recent uptick in form.
Two players to watch: Benfica’s Vangelis Pavlidis, recently prolific in attack and the difference-maker against Sporting CP, and Nice’s Khephren Thuram, a dynamic midfield presence able to snap into tackles and drive play from deep, look set for pivotal roles. The goalkeepers Anatolii Trubin for Benfica and Marcin Bulka for Nice will also be under the microscope as commanding shot-stoppers in a tie where every moment counts.
Hot stat: Benfica have a sterling 100% win record in their last five fixtures, including victories over Sporting CP and Fenerbahce, underlining both consistency and their ability to grind out results in tense match-ups.

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Nice vs Benfica prediction

This tie is set up for a tightly contested encounter. While Nice have home advantage and a recent purple patch four wins out of their last five they are coming up against a Benfica side that have been simply relentless. Benfica’s higher win rate (68% this season, 100% in last five) and slightly superior quality in both squad depth and tactical discipline tilt the tie in their favour. Expect plenty of ball retention through midfield, incisive wide play, and a testy central battle. Foul counts and yellow cards could be significant, especially given Nice’s aggressive pressing style and Benfica’s quick transitions.
In terms of style, Nice have not been shy in upping their pressing, but this sometimes leaves them exposed in midfield a vulnerability Benfica’s Pavlidis and the marauding Aursnes are uniquely positioned to exploit. Benfica’s passing accuracy (consistently above 80%) should help them control tempo and starve Nice of good chances, although Nice’s threat in transition means the margin for error is slim.
The best value bet looks to be backing Benfica with a Draw No Bet, given their recent defensive solidity and effectiveness against top opposition. Total goals are likely to remain under 2.5, as both sides have demonstrated strong defensive organisation in key matchups.

Team Analysis

Nice recent games:
Nice’s recent form has been a rollercoaster, but they seem to be hitting their stride at the right time. Fresh off a 3-2 thriller against Sheffield United, Franck Haise’s side demonstrated an ability to claw back from deficits, showing spirit and a willingness to commit numbers forward. However, the 0-2 home defeat to St. Pauli exposed frailties, chiefly lapses in concentration under pressure, with defensive transitions a nagging concern. Victories over Feyenoord and Aubagne illustrated Nice’s attacking threat six goals scored in those ties while the 2-1 win over Cercle Brugge was highlighted by incisive wing play and solid set-piece execution.

Benfica recent games:
Benfica’s last five displays have been a showcase of ruthless efficiency and tactical sharpness. A narrow but deserved win over Sporting CP (1-0) was pure textbook disciplined, patient, and capitalising on fine margins. Before that, Benfica bested Fenerbahce 3-2 in an open contest, showing their ability to both withstand and apply pressure in high-octane encounters. The hiccup against Chelsea (a bruising 1-4 loss) has since sparked a renewed focus, as evidenced by a 1-0 win over Bayern Munich, where their press smothered one of Europe’s elite, and a resounding 6-0 demolition of Auckland City. Statistically, Pavlidis and Prestianni have emerged as game-breakers up front, while Otamendi and Antonio Silva anchor the backline with composure.

🚨Read our full Nice vs Benfica stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica the favourite

• Moneyline Nice 3.00 | Benfica 2.29
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.15 | Under 2.5 1.68
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.92 | No 1.86

Benfica are marked as slight favourites by the bookmakers, reflective of their European pedigree and remarkable form. The value in a Draw No Bet market for Benfica is notable given their discipline and ability to turn up in ‘must-win’ games. Odds for BTTS are finely balanced, but current defensive trends for both sides point towards at least one clean sheet. Over/Under odds indicate that bookmakers and punters expect a cagey battle, with goals likely at a premium.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Nice possible starting eleven

Franck Haise has a settled core, with Bulka between the sticks and the ever-reliable Dante guiding a back four in the familiar 4-2-3-1 shape. Thuram is the dynamo in midfield combining physical presence and chance creation. The attacking trio of Boga, Moffi, and Laborde carry the threat, especially in quick transitions and set-piece scenarios. Keep a close watch on Thuram’s impact in both build-up and defensive phases.

Benfica possible starting eleven

Under Bruno Lage, Benfica’s 4-2-3-1 maximises midfield structure and wide creativity. Otamendi brings organiser skills, with Antonio Silva’s composure complementing him at the back. Pavlidis offers a real goal threat, while Prestianni’s movement stretches defences. Trubin in goal has excelled, and watch for Aursnes to influence both possession and pressing dynamics.

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My take on the Match

If you’re fancying a contest decided by fine margins, this is it. Benfica enter as favourites, and with reason recent results and squad depth back that up. Yet Nice are capable of springing surprises, especially if Thuram and Moffi find their rhythm early. For my main pick Benfica Draw No Bet is the smart move, marrying value to the Eagles’ continental nous. I expect a tactical battle with Benfica edging possession, and Nice having their moments on the break. If there’s to be a breakthrough, it will likely come via one of the attacking midfielders exploiting the spaces behind the fullbacks. In summary: an engaging, strategic fixture, but the slight edge rests with Benfica.

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