Liam Duckstein
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Netherlands welcome Serbia to the Philips Stadion with the two sides sitting on opposite ends of the League A Group 2 table. The hosts sit second behind Greece on five points, while Serbia prop up the group without a single point after three matches. Interestingly, these two nations already met once in this same group stage and the Dutch won that meeting too, which gives Xavi’s side a psychological edge heading into this rematch on home soil.
Mexx Meerdink has been Netherlands’ standout attacker recently, scoring four goals across his last four caps, and he looks primed to lead the line again. Luka Jovic, despite Serbia’s wider struggles, has managed two goals in his last four appearances and remains their most direct threat on the counter.
Hot stat: Serbia have scored just three goals while conceding fourteen across their last five matches, a defensive record that explains why they sit bottom of the group with a minus four goal difference.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Philips Stadion, Eindhoven |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Netherlands vs Serbia prediction
We predict a comfortable Netherlands win, and to be hones, the gap between these two squads looks wider than the table even suggests. Serbia have lost eight of their last ten matches and arrive having shipped at least two goals in four of their previous five outings. Backing Netherlands on the Asian Handicap or simply the straight win market covers the match outcome while offering better value than the heavily shortened moneyline price.
Netherlands control possession comfortably against weaker opposition, averaging strong pass accuracy figures across their last five games, and their fouls tally stays modest given how much they dominate the ball. Serbia commit fouls at a similar rate despite seeing far less of the ball, which hints at a side forced into reactive, chasing football rather than measured pressing. That imbalance in territory and discipline should let the Dutch create chances at will, particularly down the flanks where Dumfries and Summerville both carry real attacking output.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Netherlands to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Netherlands head into this fixture unbeaten in their last three group games, having drawn with Greece and Germany before beating Serbia away from home earlier in the campaign. That 2-2 draw with Greece was a frustrating watch for the Dutch, who conceded twice despite controlling large spells of possession, a pattern that shows they can be careless defensively even when dominant. Still, scoring five goals across their last three matches points to an attack that rarely goes quiet for long. In our preview of Greece vs Netherlands we called a tight, low-scoring affair settled by Dutch quality late on, paired with under 2.5 goals, and the 2-2 result went against us since the draw voided the main line while four goals flew in well above our total.
Serbia’s form tells a much grimmer story. Their last match ended in a 0-2 defeat to Germany, continuing a run where they have failed to win any of their last three fixtures by a single goal. They have lost every single one of their last five matches, conceding multiple goals in four of them, including a 1-5 thrashing against Mexico and a 0-3 defeat to Cape Verde. In our preview of Germany vs Serbia we backed Germany to win while both sides found the net, and the 0-2 scoreline went against us since Serbia failed to register a goal of their own.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Netherlands | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Netherlands vs Serbia stats page for more info.
Serbia. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Netherlands the favourite
- Moneyline Netherlands 1.19 | Serbia 13.00
- Draw 5.75
The bookmakers rate Netherlands as overwhelming favourites, and honestly the numbers match what we see on the pitch. A price near 1.19 on the hosts reflects the gap in form and quality, while Serbia’s double-digit odds show how little faith the market holds in a side without a single win in their last five appearances. We would avoid the draw price here given how one-sided this group has looked all campaign.
Possible Starting Lineups
Netherlands possible starting eleven
- GK: Bart Verbruggen
- DF: Denzel Dumfries, Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, Jurriën Timber
- MF: Tijjani Reijnders, Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch, Guus Til
- FW: Mexx Meerdink, Crysencio Summerville
Xavi should stick with the 4-4-2 shape that has served Netherlands well through the group stage so far. Verbruggen keeps his spot in goal after a string of saves in recent caps, while van Dijk anchors a settled back four alongside van de Ven and Timber. Meerdink’s scoring form makes him impossible to drop, and pairing him with Summerville gives the attack pace and directness against a tired Serbian backline.
Serbia possible starting eleven
- GK: Vanja Milinković-Savić
- DF: Filip Kostić, Srdjan Babic, Strahinja Pavlovic, Aleksa Terzić
- MF: Saša Lukić, Nemanja Gudelj, Dušan Tadić, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Andrija Živković
- FW: Luka Jovic
Paunovic looks set on the 4-2-3-1 structure that has featured in Serbia’s last five matches. Milinković-Savić starts ahead of Petrović given his save numbers in recent caps, while Lukić and Gudelj shield a back four that has leaked goals at an alarming rate. Jovic remains the one genuine outlet up top, and Tadić’s experience in behind him offers the only real hope of unlocking a stubborn Dutch defense.
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Netherlands. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Netherlands to win this one comfortably, perhaps by a two or three goal margin, given Serbia’s alarming defensive numbers and total lack of form heading into Eindhoven. The Dutch attack has scored seven goals across their last five matches, and against a Serbian side that has conceded fourteen in the same span, there is little reason to expect a close contest. Our staff lean toward Netherlands to win and over 2.5 total goals, with both teams to score the only market we would steer clear of given how blunt Serbia’s attack has looked lately.
Read also: Netherlands vs Serbia Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 2 Oct 2026
Read also: Netherlands vs Serbia: Predicted Line-ups, Confirmed Absentees & Team News
