Liam Duckstein
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Monza welcome Napoli to the Brianteo sitting dead last but one in the table, a position that feels almost unthinkable given how close some of their defeats have been this autumn. Napoli arrive in a strange spot of their own: the reigning quality squad on paper sits tenth, five points off the Champions League places, and Massimiliano Allegri’s side have leaked goals in bunches lately despite boasting Kevin De Bruyne and Scott McTominay in midfield. Monza, for their part, scored four without reply against Cagliari just two matchdays ago, proving they are far from a pushover at home even while their defensive numbers stay ugly.
Watch Scott McTominay closely. He has scored four goals in his last five Napoli appearances and keeps arriving late into the box from deep positions, a pattern Monza’s thin central defense has struggled to track all season. On the other side, Gustavo Varela has quietly become Monza’s most productive forward with three goals and an assist across his last three starts, giving the hosts a genuine outlet even against a stronger side.
Hot stat: McTominay has fired 19 shots in his last five Napoli matches alone, more attempts than Monza’s entire squad combined managed across their last five fixtures (35 shots total). That gap says plenty about the attacking quality gap in this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Brianteo, Monza |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Monza vs Napoli prediction
We predict Napoli take this one, though perhaps not as comfortably as the bookmakers’ 51% implied probability suggests. Monza have shown they can score against sides above them, but conceded in four of their last five matches, and a Napoli side chasing points after dropping ground in the title race should have enough quality in De Bruyne, Hojlund and McTominay to break them down more than once.
Monza’s numbers over the last five matches tell a clear story: just 23% pass accuracy on raw volume compared to Napoli’s far busier 85% completion rate, fewer corners (12 against 26) and noticeably fewer fouls committed (23 against 41). That last figure is interesting, Napoli have actually picked up more cards (9) than Monza (2) in that span, a sign Allegri’s side have had to work and scrap more than their reputation suggests. Expect a stretched, open game where Monza’s attacking moments come on the counter while Napoli dominate territory.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Scott McTominay to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Monza have lost three of their last five outings, and the most recent one summed up their season perfectly. They went down 2-3 away at Torino, scoring twice themselves but conceding three in a game that again exposed a defense ranked among the division’s leakiest. In our preview of Torino vs Monza we called a home win for Torino with goals at both ends, and the 2-3 scoreline delivered exactly that. Before that loss they thrashed Cagliari 4-0, showing the squad has firepower when the matchup suits them, but a 1-3 defeat to Lazio sits in between those two results, underlining just how inconsistent Juric’s men have been.
Napoli’s last match ended 3-3 at home to Roma, a result that cost them more than it gained given the context. In our preview of Napoli vs Roma we leaned toward a Roma win with goals at both ends, and while BTTS landed, the draw meant our primary call went against us. Before that they won a wild 4-3 against Bodo Glimt, scored freely once more, and the pattern across their last five fixtures is clear: goals flow in both directions whenever Napoli play, win, lose or draw.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met twice in recent Serie A history, both times with Napoli winning and Monza failing to find the net. Napoli scored a combined three goals across those two fixtures while Monza managed none, a trend that should worry the hosts heading into this one.
| Statistic | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 2 meetings) | 0 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Monza vs Napoli stats page for more info.
Monza. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Napoli the favourite
- Moneyline Monza 3.80 | Napoli 1.88
- Draw 3.75
The market leaves little doubt here. Napoli’s price around 1.88 reflects a squad that, despite a mid-table league position this season, still carries far more individual quality than a Monza side fighting against relegation form. We see value sitting slightly away from the straight moneyline, backing goals in the match rather than just the result, given both sides have shown they can concede freely this term.
Possible Starting Lineups
Monza possible starting eleven
- GK: Demba Thiam
- DF: Samuele Birindelli, Andrea Carboni, Saba Goglichidze, Ricardo Mangas
- MF: Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Foe Ondoa, Michael Folorunsho
- FW: Gustavo Varela, Dany Mota, Jay Robinson
Juric should stick with his usual 4-3-3. Varela has earned his spot through recent goal returns, and Mota’s two assists in three outings make him worth watching off the left. The back four remains the shaky part of this setup, with Carboni and Goglichidze needing a much tighter performance than they showed against Torino.
Napoli possible starting eleven
- GK: Alex Meret
- DF: Amir Rrahmani, Benoît Badiashile, Rafael Marin Zamora
- MF: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Stanislav Lobotka, Billy Gilmour, Leonardo Spinazzola
- FW: Kevin De Bruyne, Scott McTominay, Rasmus Hojlund
Allegri’s 3-4-2-1 leans on Di Lorenzo and Spinazzola pushing high as wingbacks, with Lobotka and Gilmour shielding the back three. De Bruyne and McTominay operating just behind Hojlund gives Napoli three separate goal threats, and McTominay in particular looks the man most likely to punish Monza’s open spaces.
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Napoli. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Napoli should have too much for Monza here, but not without conceding at least once given the hosts’ knack for scoring against stronger opposition this season. We predict a 1-3 win for the visitors, with McTominay and De Bruyne doing the damage while Varela or Mota grab a consolation at the other end. Perhaps the smarter single bet for punters is Napoli plus BTTS Yes, covering both the quality gap and Monza’s stubborn attacking output. To be honest, our team sees little reason to stray far from the away win here, the underlying numbers across fouls, shots and pass accuracy all point one direction.
