Sofia Quijada
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Monterrey welcome Pachuca to Estadio BBVA in a Liga MX clash between two mid-table sides fighting to climb out of the lower half of the Apertura standings. Monterrey sit 12th with 14 points from 10 games, Pachuca sit 14th with 13 points from 11, and neither side has strung together consistent form recently. The interesting wrinkle here is the head-to-head record: Pachuca have won four of the last five meetings between these clubs, a stat that sits awkwardly against the bookmakers installing Monterrey as clear 56% favourites on home turf.
Salomón Rondón has been the standout individual on either side, scoring four goals in his last three Pachuca appearances off 17 shots, a scoring rate few Liga MX strikers can match right now. For Monterrey, Hugo Cuypers carries the main attacking threat, firing six shots and a goal across his last three outings and offering the aerial presence Almeyda’s side often lacks in the final third.
Hot stat: Rondón’s four goals in three games for Pachuca is the standout number from either side’s recent sample, more than double the output of any single Monterrey player across the same stretch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio BBVA, Monterrey |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:00 CEST |
Monterrey vs Pachuca prediction
We lean toward goals in this one rather than a clean-cut winner. Monterrey have scored in four of their last five matches and conceded in four of them too, while Pachuca have found the net in every one of their last five outings, including three games with three or more goals scored. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes both carry real weight given how open both backlines have looked lately, Monterrey shipped four against Atlante just two matches back, and Pachuca conceded three to Necaxa in their most recent fixture.
Pachuca commit more fouls (45 over the last five games against Monterrey’s 37) and pick up more cards (8 versus 4), suggesting a scrappier, more physical approach that could invite set-piece chances for the hosts. Monterrey circulate the ball with more control, completing over 1,300 passes across the sample compared to Pachuca’s 1,186, which should let Almeyda’s side dictate tempo for long spells even if Pachuca’s directness through Rondón and Idrissi keeps them dangerous on the counter.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Pachuca Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Monterrey’s last five results read a 1-1 draw with Club America, a 2-1 win over Toluca, a 2-4 collapse against Atlante, a tight 1-0 win over Cruz Azul and a goalless draw with UANL Tigres. That spread, two wins, two draws, one loss, shows a side capable of grinding out results but also prone to defensive lapses against sharper attacks, exactly what the Atlante scoreline exposed. In our preview of Club America vs Monterrey we backed the home side’s firepower to see off a leaky Monterrey defense, and the 1-1 scoreline went against that call since neither side could find a second goal.
Pachuca’s recent run shows a similar inconsistency: a 3-3 draw with Necaxa, a 4-0 friendly win over Mexico U23, a 0-1 loss to Santos Laguna, a 2-2 draw with Club Tijuana and a 3-0 win over Atlante. Rondón’s scoring form is the clear positive, but Mora’s side has conceded in four of those five matches, a pattern that matches their season-long defensive issues. In our preview of Pachuca vs Necaxa we predicted a comfortable multi-goal win for the home side, and the eventual 3-3 draw went against that call despite Pachuca’s attacking showing.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Monterrey | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5 meetings) | 5 | 11 |
Pachuca have scored freely in this fixture lately, netting 11 goals across the last five meetings compared to Monterrey’s 5, and have won four of those five encounters outright. That record is the strongest reason to respect Pachuca’s chances on paper, home advantage or not.
🚨Check out our dedicated Monterrey vs Pachuca stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Monterrey the favourite
- Moneyline Monterrey 1.68 | Pachuca 4.63
- Draw 4.10
The market leans heavily on Monterrey’s home advantage, pricing them around 56% to win, but the head-to-head trend and Pachuca’s attacking returns through Rondón make the away price worth a second look. We see value on Pachuca avoiding defeat given how often they’ve troubled Monterrey historically, even if an outright away win feels like a stretch given Monterrey’s superior possession numbers.
Possible Starting Lineups
Monterrey possible starting eleven
- GK: Esteban Andrada
- DF: Ricardo Chávez, Daniel Aceves, Luis Reyes, Erick Aguirre
- MF: César Garza, Óliver Torres, Fidel Ambriz, Jorge Rodríguez
- FW: Hugo Cuypers, Jesús Corona
Almeyda should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s featured in each of the last five games. Andrada remains first choice in goal after 270 minutes played across the sample, and Cuypers leads the line as the most shot-heavy forward in the squad. Óliver Torres pulling strings from deep alongside Ambriz gives Monterrey their best chance of controlling tempo against a Pachuca side that presses aggressively through midfield.
Pachuca possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Moreno
- DF: Sergio Barreto, Eduardo Dos Santos, Francisco Venegas, Mauricio Isais
- MF: Christian Rivera, Rodolfo Pizarro, Sergio Rodríguez, Alan Bautista, Oussama Idrissi
- FW: Salomón Rondón
Mora’s 4-1-4-1 relies on numbers in midfield to feed Rondón, who has carried the attack almost single-handedly in recent weeks. Pizarro’s two assists over the last three matches make him the key creative outlet, while Idrissi offers width and an extra scoring threat from the left. Moreno starts in goal after racking up 12 saves across the sample, more than any other Pachuca keeper option.
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Monterrey. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict goals at both ends in Monterrey, with Rondón’s hot streak keeping Pachuca competitive against a Monterrey defense that’s leaked four goals as recently as two games ago. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes form the backbone of our pick, supported by a Pachuca Draw No Bet angle given their dominant recent head-to-head record against this exact opponent. Perhaps Monterrey edge it on home advantage alone, but we’re not backing them to keep a clean sheet doing it, to be hones the defensive numbers from both sides simply don’t support that outcome.
