Sofia Quijada
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Monterrey welcome Chivas Guadalajara to Estadio BBVA with the table picture sharply contrasting the recent form lines. Chivas sit second, just four points off the summit, while Almeyda’s men occupy seventh after a stretch that reads more like a basketball score sheet than a football one. Monterrey have netted nine goals across their last five outings against Chivas’s modest three, yet Chivas have conceded far less and ground out results in the big moments, including a 2-0 statement win over league leaders Club America. That gap between attacking output and defensive discipline is the story we build our prediction around.
Diego Rossi has been Monterrey’s spark, scoring three times in his last four appearances and leading the line with real conviction. For Chivas, Roberto Alvarado’s creativity from the right half-space, eight shots and constant link play, gives Milito’s side its best route to goals against a Monterrey back line that has leaked in four of its last five matches.
Hot stat: Monterrey have scored three times as many goals as Chivas over the last five games (9 vs 3) despite firing almost 30 fewer shots (49 vs 78), a huge gap in conversion efficiency that favors the hosts’ clinical edge over Chivas’s volume-based approach.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio BBVA, Monterrey |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:00 CEST |
Monterrey vs Chivas Guadalajara prediction
We predict a Monterrey win on home soil, backed by their superior recent scoring form and the slight edge the bookmakers already give them. Chivas have proven resilient defensively, but their modest three goals in five matches suggest they will struggle to keep pace if Monterrey’s front line clicks again like it did against Puebla. Perhaps Chivas nick a goal on the counter through Alvarado or Sepúlveda, but to be hones, we don’t see them stopping this Monterrey attack outright.
Monterrey have committed far fewer fouls than Chivas in the last five games (37 vs 55) despite picking up more yellow cards (8 vs 5), suggesting referees have been stricter on their challenges even though Chivas concede possession more aggressively. Chivas actually hold a passing edge, completing 1935 of 2258 attempts (85.7%) compared to Monterrey’s 1602 of 1961 (82%), which points to a more patient, possession-heavy approach from the visitors. That control, paired with a high foul count, should generate plenty of dead-ball situations and corners, both sides combined average close to 12 per match recently.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Diego Rossi to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Monterrey have won three of their last five, with a draw and a loss mixed in, a run that shows genuine attacking intent even against stronger sides. Their most recent outing was a 4-1 demolition of Puebla, with Rossi, de la Rosa and Cuypers all getting on the scoresheet. Before that they beat Pachuca 2-1, drew 1-1 with Club America and edged Toluca 2-1, before the lone blemish, a 2-4 loss to Atlante that exposed their defensive frailty. In our preview of Monterrey vs Pachuca we called a goal-heavy affair with both sides finding the net, and the eventual 2-1 scoreline delivered exactly that.
Chivas have won two of their last five, with two draws and a loss rounding out the sequence, a steadier but less explosive run than Monterrey’s. Their last match saw them shut out Necaxa 1-0, a clean, disciplined performance typical of Milito’s setup. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Tigres, another 1-1 with Atlas, a strong 2-0 win over Club America, and a 0-2 loss to Queretaro. In our preview of Chivas Guadalajara vs UANL Tigres we backed the hosts to win on the strength of their recent scoring edge, but the match finished 1-1 and that call went against us.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Monterrey | Chivas Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 8 | 9 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Monterrey vs Chivas Guadalajara stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Monterrey the favourite
- Moneyline Monterrey 2.42 | Chivas Guadalajara 2.70
- Draw 3.12
Monterrey carry the shortest odds across both bookmakers listed, matching the 37% implied probability versus Chivas’s 34%, a narrow gap that reflects how close these two sides actually are on paper. The draw price sitting above 3.00 tells us bookmakers see a result as more likely than a stalemate, which lines up with our own read given both teams’ attacking tendencies this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Monterrey possible starting eleven
- GK: Esteban Andrada
- DF: Carlos Salcedo, Ricardo Chávez, Daniel Aceves
- MF: Gerardo Arteaga, César Garza, Óliver Torres, Stefan Medina
- FW: Jesús Corona, Lucas Ocampos, Diego Rossi
Almeyda should stick with the 3-4-2-1 that has fueled this scoring run, with Arteaga and Medina providing width from wingback roles while Garza and Torres control the middle. Rossi leads the line as the focal point, with Corona and Ocampos rotating behind him, both carrying goal and assist threat from midfield positions this season.
Chivas Guadalajara possible starting eleven
- GK: Óscar Whalley
- DF: Diego Campillo, Luis Rey, Richard Ledezma, Bryan Gonzalez
- MF: Fernando González, Daniel Aguirre, Roberto Alvarado, Santiago Sandoval, Efrain Alvarez
- FW: Ricardo Marín
Milito’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Aguirre and González shielding the back four, freeing Alvarado and Alvarez to attack the flanks around Sandoval centrally. Marín leads the attack on raw appearances, though Sepúlveda remains the more clinical option off the bench if Chivas need a goal late.
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Monterrey. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Monterrey to edge this one at home, with their scoring form proving too sharp for a Chivas side that still manages games well but rarely threatens with volume. The 9-3 goal gap across the last five matches, combined with home advantage and a slightly favorable moneyline, tips this toward the hosts. We expect goals at both ends given Monterrey’s leaky defense and Chivas’s recent habit of finding the net in bigger matches against America, so over 2.5 and BTTS Yes round out our card alongside backing Rossi to continue his hot streak.
