Levi Rothermund
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Montenegro welcome Armenia back to Podgorica just days after beating them 3-2 in the reverse fixture, and that quirk of the Nations League calendar gives this rematch an unusual edge. Mirko Vucinić’s side sit top of League C Group 2 with a perfect record, while Armenia arrive having lost their last two outings, including a 0-2 defeat to Cyprus. Honestly, few group-stage games this matchday carry such a clear favourite, yet Armenia showed in the first meeting that they can score against this Montenegro defence.
Nikola Krstović deserves attention up front for Montenegro. He has scored three goals in his last four appearances and leads the squad in shot volume by a wide margin. Eduard Spertsyan is the man Armenia build around in midfield, responsible for two goals and an assist while completing more passes than anyone else in the squad.
Hot stat: Montenegro have scored 10 goals across their last five matches while Armenia managed just 6, and Krstović alone has netted almost a third of his country’s total output in that stretch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Gradski Stadion, Podgorica |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Montenegro vs Armenia prediction
Montenegro look the clear side to back here, but a straight moneyline bet at such short odds offers little value. We think the smarter angle is Montenegro to win and both teams to score, given Armenia found the net twice in the first meeting just over a week ago. Their defence has leaked goals all year, yet their attack has shown flashes against this exact opponent.
Montenegro commit fewer fouls on average and pick up fewer cards than Armenia, who have picked up seven yellows in their last five games against six for the hosts. Armenia hold a slight edge in corners and free kicks won, a sign they spend more time defending territory than dictating it. Montenegro’s higher shot count and better pass accuracy near 86 percent point to a side controlling matches through possession rather than physicality, which should let them dominate long spells without needing to foul much.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Montenegro win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Montenegro have won five of their last seven matches this year and come into this one on a run of three straight wins in the last month alone. Their most recent outing ended 2-1 away at Latvia, a result that kept their perfect Nations League record intact. In our preview of Latvia vs Montenegro we called for an away win with some breathing room, and the 2-1 scoreline gave us the right side of that bet even though the margin stayed tighter than we expected.
Armenia have won just one of their six matches this year, and their recent form has slid further with back-to-back defeats. Their last match ended 0-2 away to Cyprus, a game where they struggled to create anything meaningful in the final third. In our preview of Cyprus vs Armenia we leaned toward Armenia grabbing at least a point on the road, but that 0-2 defeat went against our read entirely.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides met just over a week before this fixture, with Montenegro edging a 3-2 thriller in the reverse Nations League tie. They also drew 2-2 in a June 2025 friendly, so recent meetings have produced goals at both ends every single time.
| Statistic | Montenegro | Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 57 | 49 |
| Free kicks | 36 | 41 |
| Corner kicks | 18 | 25 |
| Total fouls | 46 | 40 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 86 | 87 |
| Interceptions | 29 | 23 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Montenegro vs Armenia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Montenegro the favourite
- Moneyline Montenegro 1.51 | Armenia 5.95
- Draw 4.40
The market leans heavily toward the hosts, and we agree with that read given the gap in current form. Montenegro’s odds sit close to even money territory for a reason, since their defence has conceded only sparingly while Armenia’s attack has dried up over the last two games. Backing the favourite outright carries little reward though, which is why we prefer combining the result with goals markets for better value.
Possible Starting Lineups
Montenegro possible starting eleven
- GK: Balša Popović
- DF: Stefan Savić, milan roganovic, Marko Vešović, Igor Vujacic, Risto Radunović
- MF: Marko Janković, Andrija Bulatović, Stefan Loncar, Vasilije Adzic
- FW: Nikola Krstović
Vucinić tends to stick with the back five that has carried this unbeaten run, and Savić’s minutes make him the clear anchor there. Krstović stays the focal point up top in a 5-4-1 shape, with Janković and Bulatović shuttling the ball forward from deeper positions.
Armenia possible starting eleven
- GK: Arsen Beglaryan
- DF: Nayair Tiknizyan, Erik Piloyan, Georgiy Harutyunyan, Argishti Petrosyan
- MF: Artem Bandikyan, Eduard Spertsyan, karlen hovhannisyan, Gor Manvelyan
- FW: Artur Miranyan, Artur Serobyan
Melikyan is likely to keep faith in the 4-1-3-2 that has given Armenia their only attacking threat lately, with Spertsyan pulling strings just ahead of Bandikyan’s holding role. Serobyan and Miranyan form the strike pair tasked with repeating their goal output from the first meeting.
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Armenia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Montenegro should win this one, and we think they do it while conceding at least once. Armenia proved a week ago that they can trouble this back line, scoring twice in the first meeting, but their attack has gone quiet since against Cyprus. Our punters team backs Montenegro to win with goals at both ends, maybe by a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline, with Krstović once again the man most likely to find the net.
Read also: Montenegro vs Armenia Team News and Predicted Lineups: Who Starts?
