Liam Duckstein
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Latvia welcome Montenegro to Skonto Stadium in Riga on matchday three of League C Group 2, and the gap between these two sides already looks wide on paper. Montenegro sit top with six points from two games, Latvia are bottom with a single point and zero goals scored so far.
The interesting angle here is how differently the two teams have approached this group. Montenegro have thrown numbers forward under Mirko Vucinić, racking up 31 shots in their opening matches, while Paolo Nicolato’s Latvia have gone the opposite way, sitting in a back five and managing just 13 shots combined. That contrast in game plans should shape everything about how this fixture unfolds.
Nikola Krstović has been the difference-maker for Montenegro, already on two goals and an assist with 13 shots in two starts, and he looks like the player most capable of breaking Latvia down again. On the other side, Vladislavs Gutkovskis carries most of Latvia’s attacking hope up front, though he is still searching for his first goal of the campaign and picked up a booking in his last outing.
Hot stat: Montenegro have out-shot Latvia 31-13 and scored five goals to Latvia’s zero across their last two competitive matches, a gap that tells you almost everything about where the value sits in this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Skonto Stadium, Riga |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Latvia vs Montenegro prediction
We predict Montenegro to win this one, and honestly, the numbers make it hard to argue otherwise. Latvia have not scored in five matches, Montenegro have banged in five goals in their last two, and the away side arrive full of confidence after winning both of their opening Nations League fixtures. At odds around 1.84, backing the visitors looks like the clearest value on the board.
Latvia’s 5-4-1 setup is built purely to contain, which explains their low shot count and low foul tally of 25 across five games. Montenegro’s 4-2-3-1 is far more expansive, feeding their front players early and often, and it shows in their 799 successfully completed passes compared to Latvia’s 538. Montenegro have also picked up more yellow cards (3 vs 2), a byproduct of pressing higher and committing bodies forward. That aggressive approach, paired with Latvia’s passive defending, points toward a comfortable away performance rather than a tight contest.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Nikola Krstović to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Latvia’s last outing ended goalless at home to Cyprus, a result that summed up their season so far: disciplined but toothless in front of goal. Before that they lost 0-2 to Armenia, meaning they have gone two straight games in this group without finding the net. In our preview of Latvia vs Cyprus we leaned toward Cyprus avoiding defeat and backed a low-scoring game, and the 0-0 final score landed both parts of that call cleanly. That kind of pattern, five games without more than a single goal scored, does not inspire confidence against a Montenegro side scoring at will.
Montenegro, by contrast, arrive on the back of a 3-2 win over Armenia, their second straight victory after also beating Cyprus 2-1. Krstović and Osmajić shared the goals in that Armenia win, and the pattern of attacking output has been consistent all campaign. In our preview of Armenia vs Montenegro we backed the visitors to edge a close game around 2-1, and while the eventual 3-2 scoreline ran a little higher scoring than expected, Montenegro getting the win is exactly what we called.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Latvia and Montenegro have no recent competitive meetings on record heading into this fixture, so there is no head-to-head trend to lean on here. This will effectively be a fresh test for both sides in this group phase.
🚨Check out our dedicated Latvia vs Montenegro stats page for more info.
Latvia. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Montenegro the favourite
- Moneyline Latvia 4.20 | Montenegro 1.84
- Draw 3.35
The market is firmly behind Montenegro here, and bookmakers give them roughly a 50% chance of victory against just 22% for Latvia. That price gap lines up with the underlying stats we have seen: shot volume, pass completion and recent form all favor the away side by a wide margin. We see little reason to fade the favourite at this line, though the draw at 3.35 is not an unreasonable hedge given how stubborn Latvia’s back five has been defensively this campaign.
Possible Starting Lineups
Latvia possible starting eleven
- GK: Rihards Matrevics
- DF: Andrejs Cigaņiks, Deniss Meļņiks, Dennis Cirkin, Antonijs Černomordijs, Roberts Savalnieks
- MF: Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Lukass Vapne, Markuss Strods, Eduards Emsis
- FW: Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Nicolato sticks with the 5-4-1 that has defined his side’s opening fixtures. Matrevics has done the heavier goalkeeping work between the sticks and should keep his spot, while the back five built around Cigaņiks and Meļņiks has kept Latvia in games without ever really threatening at the other end. Gutkovskis remains the lone outlet up top, and he needs a much sharper night in front of goal than his last two showings.
Montenegro possible starting eleven
- GK: Balša Popović
- DF: Stefan Savić, milan roganovic, Ognjen Gasevic, Igor Vujacic
- MF: Marko Janković, Andrija Bulatović, Vasilije Adzic, Stefan Loncar, Milutin Osmajić
- FW: Nikola Krstović
Vucinić’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Popović’s shot-stopping and Savić’s experience at the back, freeing Janković and Bulatović to dictate tempo through midfield. Osmajić operates just behind Krstović and has chipped in with a goal of his own recently, giving Montenegro two credible scoring threats up top rather than one. Krstović remains the player to watch given his sharpness and shot volume this campaign.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Montenegro. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Montenegro to win in Riga, likely by a two-goal margin given how one-sided the underlying numbers look. Latvia’s defensive setup will make them hard to break down early, but a side that has failed to score in five straight matches rarely finds a way back once they fall behind. Perhaps Latvia nick a consolation late on if Montenegro ease off with the game won, but our punters team expects the away side’s attacking depth, led by Krstović and Osmajić, to be too much for a Latvian back line already leaking goals against weaker opposition. To be honest, this looks like one of the more straightforward reads on the Nations League card this matchday.
Read also: Latvia vs Montenegro Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 30 Sep 2026
Read also: Latvia vs Montenegro Predicted Line-ups and Team News: Both Expected XIs
