Rafael Nogueira
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Mirassol host Atletico Mineiro at José Maria de Campos Maia in a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 regular season fixture. Mirassol sit 14th in the table with 40 points, while Atletico Mineiro occupy seventh with 50. The home side can climb with a result here, but Atletico arrive with more shots, more possession and a stronger season record. The bookmakers still make Mirassol the favourite at 48%, which makes this a match where the market and the underlying numbers disagree.
Mirassol’s Neto Moura, who has completed 194 passes across four recent appearances, sets the tempo in midfield. Atletico’s Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte carries the main attacking threat, having scored one goal and assisted another in the latest five matches. Both teams go into this fixture with Mirassol’s Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune and Atletico’s Gabriel Delfim holding the goalkeeping duties.
Hot stat: Atletico Mineiro have fired 84 total shots across their last five matches, the highest volume in this fixture pool. Mirassol managed only 58 in the same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol |
| 🗓️ Date: | 14.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:30 CEST |
Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro prediction
We predict Atletico Mineiro will not lose this match, and the best value sits in the double chance market. Atletico’s average of 3 goals per match over five games looks modest, but their 84 shots and 32 corner kicks show consistent pressure. Mirassol’s win rate of 33% this season trails Atletico’s 42%, and Atletico have the stronger ranking despite a recent run of defeats. The listed prices of around 3.50 for the draw and 3.70 for Atletico make the double chance a sensible route at roughly 1.8, since it covers the two outcomes the form data supports most.
Both sides lean on a 4-2-3-1 shape and play with similar discipline. Atletico committed 56 fouls and received 9 yellow cards across five matches, while Mirassol committed 48 fouls and drew 7 yellow cards. Atletico also dominated ball progression with 2,859 passes against Mirassol’s 1,934. That gap suggests Atletico will control possession and push Mirassol into a deeper block, which favours the away side to produce corners and chances while keeping the match tight.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atletico Mineiro or Draw (Double Chance X2) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Mirassol enter after a 2-1 home win over Chapecoense, a result that kept their sequence of narrow outcomes alive. In our preview of Chapecoense vs Mirassol we called a Mirassol away win, perhaps by a single goal, and the 2-1 result delivered it. Across the last five matches Mirassol recorded two wins, two defeats and one draw, scoring 5 goals and conceding 4. Their 0-1 defeat to Bahia and 0-2 loss to Corinthians show they struggle to protect leads on the road, so the home fixture here matters more than usual.
Atletico Mineiro’s last match ended 1-1 against Gremio, a point that did little for a side with four defeats in their last five. In our preview of Botafogo RJ vs Atletico Mineiro we called a narrow Botafogo edge with Under 2.5 goals, and the 0-1 scoreline delivered that call. The Gremio draw showed Atletico can create chances, with 32 corners across five games, yet their finishing has lagged. To be hones, the scoring record in this line of fixtures has been tight, which supports a low-scoring outcome here.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Mirassol | Atletico Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Mirassol vs Atletico Mineiro stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mirassol the favourite
- Moneyline Mirassol 1.94 | Atletico Mineiro 3.68
- Draw 3.50
Mirassol carry the bookmakers’ 48% win probability, and the listed prices reflect that edge at home. The draw at around 3.50 looks fair given both teams’ combined record of four draws in ten recent matches. Atletico at 3.68 looks undervalued against a side with a higher ranking and more shots, which is why we favour backing them in the double chance rather than straight.
Possible Starting Lineups
Mirassol possible starting eleven
- GK: Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune
- DF: Reinaldo, João Victor Carroll Santana, Igor Formiga, Willian Estefani Machado
- MF: Neto Moura, Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve, Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo, Denilson Alves Borges, Wallisson
- FW: Alesson dos Santos Batista
Mirassol line up in a 4-2-3-1 built around Neto Moura, who has played every minute of the recent matches and completed the most passes in the squad. Reinaldo and João Victor provide the attacking outlets from full back and centre back, while Alesson remains the main focal point up front. Watch Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve, who scored in a recent match and gives Mirassol a second goal threat.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting eleven
- GK: Gabriel Delfim
- DF: Renan Lodi, Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira, Léo Duarte, Natanael Moreira Milouski
- MF: Alan Franco, Kevin Castaño, Gustavo Scarpa, Igor Gomes, Maycon de Andrade Barberan
- FW: Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
Atletico Mineiro also set up in a 4-2-3-1 with Alan Franco and Kevin Castaño screening the back line. Renan Lodi has scored two goals in the recent five matches and offers the most dangerous route forward from left back. Gustavo Scarpa and Igor Gomes should drive the attacking midfield, and Bernard leads the line as the main finisher.
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Mirassol. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Atletico Mineiro to avoid defeat in a tight, low-scoring contest, with Mirassol’s home advantage keeping the margin small. Perhaps the decisive factor sits in Atletico’s shot volume, which should eventually produce a chance that Mirassol’s defence cannot stop. Our final pick is the Atletico Mineiro or Draw double chance, backed by Under 2.5 goals and Over 9.5 corners.
