Rafael Nogueira
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Chapecoense sit dead last in Série A with 32 games gone and little hope left of avoiding relegation. Mirassol arrive sitting just above the drop zone themselves, but their recent run of draws against stronger sides shows a team that at least knows how to grind out points. The interesting angle here is the gulf in goal difference: Chapecoense’s minus 34 is by far the worst in the division, while Mirassol have kept things tighter at minus 10 despite scoring only marginally more. A home fixture against the league’s leakiest defense is exactly the kind of spot Mirassol’s away form has been missing lately.
Yannick Bolasie carries most of Chapecoense’s attacking threat, with 12 shots and a goal involvement across his last five appearances, numbers far ahead of any teammate. On the other side, André Luis has scored twice in just four games for Mirassol and looks the obvious outlet if the visitors want to settle this early. Chapecoense’s hot stat says it all: they’ve failed to score in three of their last five matches and have shipped 66 goals in 32 league games, a defensive record no side in this division comes close to matching.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Condá, Chapeco |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Chapecoense vs Mirassol prediction
We predict Mirassol to win this one, perhaps without needing to be at their best. Chapecoense have won just once in their last five and that single win came against a Fluminense side resting players. Mirassol’s away form has produced draws against Bahia and Bragantino rather than defeats, and facing a side that averages over two goals conceded per game should suit their patient build-up approach.
Chapecoense commit more fouls per match (64 across the sample versus Mirassol’s 56) and have picked up more yellow cards, a sign of a side chasing the game rather than controlling it. Mirassol’s pass accuracy sits marginally ahead too, around 84% against Chapecoense’s similar mark, but the gap in composure under pressure is wider than the raw numbers suggest. Expect Mirassol to dictate territory and limit clean sheets at the other end given Chapecoense’s attack has gone blank in three of five outings.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Mirassol to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Chapecoense’s last match ended 0-3 at home to Bragantino, continuing a pattern of games where their defense simply cannot hold a lead or keep a clean sheet. Before that they beat Fluminense 2-1, their only bright spot in five matches, then lost to Botafogo, Athletico PR and Vitoria by a combined score of 1-9. That stretch tells a clear story: one moment of quality surrounded by four defensive collapses. In our preview of Bragantino vs Chapecoense we called a home win for Bragantino by around two goals, and the 0-3 result delivered it, even if the margin ran wider than we expected.
Mirassol’s last outing was a 0-2 loss at Corinthians, snapping a run of two draws against São Paulo and Bragantino. Before the Corinthians defeat they beat Internacional 2-0 and lost narrowly 0-1 to Bahia, a mixed sequence that shows a team capable of good performances but still inconsistent on the road. In our preview of Corinthians Paulista vs Mirassol we called Mirassol to avoid defeat, and the 0-2 scoreline went against us on that front, though the low-scoring nature of the game did track with our secondary reads on goals.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Chapecoense | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Mirassol stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mirassol the favourite
- Moneyline Chapecoense 3.60 | Mirassol 1.96
- Draw 3.60
The market leans heavily toward Mirassol, and the gap between the two sides’ table positions backs that up. Chapecoense’s odds near 3.60 reflect a team that has looked beatable all season, while Mirassol at sub-2.00 suggests bookmakers see this as close to a routine away win. We would not be surprised if the draw price shortens closer to kickoff given Mirassol’s habit of settling for points on the road rather than chasing the win outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chapecoense possible starting eleven
- GK: Anderson Silva da Paixão
- DF: Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski, João Paulo, Rafael Thyere, Bruno Pacheco
- MF: Giovanni Augusto, Bruno Matias, Yago Felipe, Miguel Carvalho Vianna, David Antunes da Silva
- FW: Yannick Bolasie
Coach Rafael Lacerda keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in all five recent matches. Giovanni Augusto remains the creative focal point with a goal and an assist to his name, and Bolasie is the clear outlet up front given his shot volume. The back four has stayed settled, which has not stopped the goals conceded piling up regardless.
Mirassol possible starting eleven
- GK: Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune
- DF: Reinaldo, Willian Estefani Machado, Igor Formiga, Gabriel Knesowitsch
- MF: Neto Moura, Denilson Alves Borges, Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo, Chico Kim, Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve
- FW: André Luis
Rafael Guanaes also sticks with 4-2-3-1, leaning on a settled back line where Reinaldo and Willian Estefani Machado have played every minute of the last five matches. André Luis leads the line as the main goal threat, with Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve offering a secondary scoring option from midfield.
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Mirassol. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We back Mirassol to win at Arena Condá, perhaps by a single goal given Chapecoense’s capacity to put bodies behind the ball even in defeat. The home side’s attack has gone cold, scoring just three goals across five matches, and their minus 34 goal difference is not a product of bad luck, it reflects a defense that breaks down repeatedly. Mirassol, by contrast, have shown they can control games without needing to flood the scoresheet, evidenced by draws against Bahia and Bragantino where they conceded just once combined. To be hones, the main risk to our pick is Mirassol’s own inconsistency on the road, but against a side this short on confidence and quality, we expect the away win with a low-scoring final score to hold up.
