Liam Duckstein
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San Siro turns into a cauldron again as Milan host Inter in round ten of Serie A, and the gap between these two neighbours on the table tells its own story this season. Inter sit top with 25 points from nine games, Milan sit fifth with 18, and the form lines heading into this derby could barely be more different. Inter have won six of their last seven matches in all competitions, while Milan limped into the break on the back of a 2-4 home defeat to Bologna. The interesting wrinkle here is that Milan still have the better recent head to head record across the last eight meetings, scoring 13 goals to Inter’s 6 in that sample, proof that this fixture rarely follows the league table script.
Marcus Thuram has been directly involved in goals in most of Inter’s recent wins and his movement off the shoulder of the last defender will test a Milan backline that has looked shaky lately. On the other side, Christian Pulisic remains Milan’s main outlet going forward, and his ability to create shots from nothing gives Amorim’s side a puncher’s chance even against the run of form. Hot stat worth flagging: Milan have conceded seven goals in their last two matches alone, a 2-4 loss to Bologna followed by a 0-3 defeat at Bournemouth, numbers that should worry anyone backing a Milan clean sheet here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | San Siro (Giuseppe Meazza), Milan |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Milan vs Inter prediction
We predict Inter to win this derby, and honestly the numbers barely leave room for doubt. Inter have won 86% of their matches over the last month compared to Milan’s 50%, and their aggregate shot count over the last five games (109 versus 56) shows a team creating chances at nearly double the rate of their rivals. Perhaps the scoreline lands around 1-2 or 1-3, with Inter’s away form this season among the best in Europe right now.
Style wise, Inter carry more cards and foul more (48 fouls, 11 yellows in five games against Milan’s 53 fouls but only 7 yellows), yet their passing accuracy sits comfortably above Milan’s and their corner count (27 versus 14) points to a side dominating territory. Milan’s narrow 3-5-2 shape with wingbacks Bartesaghi and Estupinan pushing forward could leave space in behind for Dimarco and Carlos Augusto to exploit on the counter, which only strengthens the case for backing the away side.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Inter -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Milan’s recent run reads wins over Salzburg and Atalanta sandwiched around defeats to Bournemouth and Bologna, a pattern that screams inconsistency rather than genuine top four form. The 2-4 collapse against Bologna is the one that stings most, Milan conceded four goals at San Siro against a side sitting mid table, and defensive issues from that game (Pavlovic and De Winter both struggled with pace in behind) are exactly the kind of problems Inter’s attack is built to punish. In our preview of Milan vs Bologna we called for a comfortable two goal Milan win built on their attacking numbers, and the 2-4 final score went firmly against that read as Bologna ran riot instead.
Inter, meanwhile, have barely put a foot wrong. Four wins from their last five, including a routine 2-0 away win at Venezia, a 3-1 statement win over the very Bologna side that beat Milan, and a narrow defeat only against Club Brugge in Europe. Chivu’s side look sharp, well organized, and ruthless in front of goal, with 25 goals scored in just nine league games this season, the best tally in Serie A alongside Lazio. In our preview of Venezia vs Inter we backed the Nerazzurri for a comfortable away win given their superior shot volume and passing numbers, and the 2-0 result delivered on that call even if the goal tally came in under our over 2.5 lean.
🚨Check out our dedicated Milan vs Inter stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Inter the favourite
- Moneyline Milan 3.54 | Inter 2.02
- Draw 3.70
The market leans heavily on Inter, with the bookmakers’ average implying roughly a 47% chance of an away win against 27% for Milan. That price gap lines up with the form and table position of both clubs, and we think it is fair given how differently these two sides have performed over the last month. Milan’s odds do offer some value for a draw given their home record at San Siro, but backing Inter outright or on the Asian handicap still looks like the sharper play to us.
Possible Starting Lineups
Milan possible starting eleven
- GK: Mike Maignan
- DF: Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic, Koni De Winter
- MF: Davide Bartesaghi, Pervis Estupinan, Ardon Jashari, Luka Modrić, Alphadjo Cissè
- FW: Christian Pulisic, Francesco Camarda
Amorim sticks with the 3-5-2 shape that has featured in all five of Milan’s last matches. Cissè has quietly racked up five goals in five appearances and deserves a central role tucked just behind Camarda, while Modrić still dictates tempo from deep despite his advancing years. Pulisic remains the player most likely to create something out of nothing against a well drilled Inter back three.
Inter possible starting eleven
- GK: Josep Martinez
- DF: Alessandro Bastoni, Yann Bisseck, Manuel Akanji
- MF: Federico Dimarco, Nicolò Barella, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Carlos Augusto
- FW: Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Piotr Zieliński, Marcus Thuram
Chivu’s 3-4-2-1 relies on Dimarco and Carlos Augusto bombing forward from wingback, feeding Thuram up top. Lautaro Martínez has only played one match in this sample, likely managing a knock, which should make him a dangerous impact option off the bench rather than a guaranteed starter. Barella and Çalhanoğlu continue to control midfield tempo, and that engine room edge could decide the game.
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Inter. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Inter to come out on top in this derby, likely by a scoreline around 1-2 or 2-3, with goals at both ends given Milan’s attacking pieces and Inter’s leaky moments against Club Brugge recently. The shot volume, form table and squad depth all favor Chivu’s side, and Milan’s defensive wobbles over the last two matches make a clean sheet for Amorim’s men unlikely. To be honest, Milan’s only route to a positive result is a high tempo start and quick goals before Inter settle into their rhythm, but little in the recent data suggests that script plays out at San Siro.
