Sofia Quijada
This is already the second leg of the La Liga 2 Promotion phase between these two sides, following Malaga’s narrow 1-0 win in the first meeting just days ago. Juan Funes’ men have been in outstanding form over the last month, winning four of five matches, and they now hold the early advantage in the promotion standings. Las Palmas, coached by Luis Garcia, arrive at La Rosaleda needing a response after that opening defeat left them bottom of the promotion group with zero points.
Carlos Ruiz Rubio leads Malaga’s attacking threat with four goals in the last five matches and 21 total shots, making him the most dangerous forward on the pitch. For Las Palmas, midfielder Kirian Rodriguez carries the creative burden with one goal and one assist, logging a team-high 373 passes and nine shots across recent outings. His ability to dictate tempo from central areas will be key if Las Palmas are to unlock a Malaga side that has conceded just once in their last five games.
Hot stat: Malaga have scored in every one of their last five matches and kept four clean sheets in that same run, conceding only once against Racing Santander. Las Palmas, by contrast, shipped five goals in a single game against Andorra during that period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2 2025/26 Promotion |
| 🏟 Venue: | La Rosaleda, Malaga |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Malaga vs Las Palmas Prediction
Malaga’s home advantage, superior recent form, and a 1-0 lead from the first leg make them the clear pick here. They have won four of their last five, dropped just one goal in that stretch, and already beat Las Palmas once at this exact stage of the competition. Las Palmas have won only two of their last five, and their defensive record is a concern given that five-goal hammering by Andorra. Backing Malaga to win and keep another clean sheet is the best value play at La Rosaleda.
Malaga average 60 free kicks across five matches compared to Las Palmas’ 72, suggesting Las Palmas foul more frequently and are more aggressive in disrupting play. Malaga’s pass accuracy sits at 1,798 completed passes from 2,124 attempted, while Las Palmas complete 2,352 from 2,727, showing a possession-oriented style. Las Palmas’ higher corner count (22 to 16) reflects their tendency to push wide and deliver into the box, but Malaga’s defensive solidity and interception numbers suggest they absorb that pressure well. Las Palmas have also picked up five yellow cards to Malaga’s four, and with the pressure of needing a result, that card count could climb further in a tense second leg.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Malaga to Win & Under 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Malaga enter this match on the back of a 1-0 win over Las Palmas in the first promotion leg, a result that extended their unbeaten run to five games. Before that, they beat Real Zaragoza 2-0, drew 1-1 with Racing Santander, demolished Ceuta 4-1, and edged Sporting Gijon 2-1. The pattern is consistent: Malaga score, they rarely concede, and they grind results against quality opposition. Their 63% win rate across 24 matches this year reflects a team that has found a reliable formula under Juan Funes.
Las Palmas’ recent record is more uneven. They beat Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 before the first leg, drew 1-1 with Real Zaragoza, beat Almeria 2-1, and then suffered that extraordinary 1-5 loss to Andorra. Their 40% win rate over the last 30 days tells a story of inconsistency, and losing the opening promotion match has put them in a difficult position. Luis Garcia’s 4-2-3-1 setup gives them structure in midfield, but the defensive unit has been exposed by direct opponents.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Malaga | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 0 |
| Total shots | 67 | 56 |
| Free kicks | 60 | 72 |
| Corner kicks | 16 | 22 |
| Total fouls | 66 | 44 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 85% | 86% |
| Interceptions | 35 | 35 |
| Offsides | 13 | 13 |
🚨 Check out our dedicated Malaga vs Las Palmas stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Malaga the Favourite
- Moneyline Malaga 2.21 | Las Palmas 3.28
- Draw 3.38
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Malaga are priced as favourites at around 2.21, which reflects the bookmakers’ 43% win probability for the home side. To be honest, that price looks generous given Malaga’s current form, their clean sheet record, and the fact they have beaten Las Palmas three times in four recent meetings. Las Palmas at 3.28 carry value only if you believe they can overturn a one-goal aggregate deficit against a team that has not conceded at home in this competition. The draw at 3.38 is the market’s acknowledgment that Las Palmas need to attack, which could open space for Malaga on the counter. We predict Malaga’s odds offer the best return relative to actual probability here.
Las Palmas. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Malaga Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alfonso Herrero
- DF: Carlos Puga, Einar Galilea, Diego Murillo, Francisco Montero
- MF: Dani Lorenzo, Izan Merino, Carlos Dotor, Rafael Rodriguez Ruiz
- FW: Carlos Ruiz Rubio, David Larrubia
Malaga’s 4-4-2 has been consistent across all five recent matches, and this lineup reflects that stability. Alfonso Herrero has been reliable between the posts with 16 saves and a strong distribution record. Carlos Puga and Einar Galilea form a dependable central defensive partnership, with Galilea particularly active in interceptions. In attack, Carlos Ruiz Rubio is the one to watch, leading all Malaga players with four goals and 21 shots. David Larrubia adds three goals of his own and provides a direct foil. Midfielders Dani Lorenzo and Rafael Rodriguez Ruiz each contributed two assists, giving Malaga a creative engine that connects defence to attack efficiently.
Las Palmas Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dinko Horkas
- DF: Mika Marmol, Alex Suarez, Enrique Clemente, Marvin
- MF: Kirian Rodriguez, Lorenzo Amatucci, Taisei Miyashiro, Jonathan Viera
- FW: Pejiño, Jese Rodriguez
Las Palmas’ 4-2-3-1 shape translates into this lineup with a double pivot of Kirian Rodriguez and Lorenzo Amatucci protecting the back four. Kirian Rodriguez is the key creative figure with 373 passes and nine shots over five matches, and his partnership with Amatucci gives Las Palmas control in central areas. Enrique Clemente has contributed one goal from defence and leads the backline with eight interceptions. Taisei Miyashiro operates in the number ten role, contributing six shots and one assist, while Pejiño and Jese Rodriguez lead the line. Dinko Horkas has made 12 saves and will need to be sharp if Las Palmas fall behind early.
🏅Tips.GG Premium Subscription Brings You Even Closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Malaga. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Malaga hold every meaningful advantage going into this second promotion leg: home ground, superior form, a clean sheet record over five matches, and a one-goal aggregate lead. They have beaten Las Palmas in three of the last four competitive meetings, including twice in this promotion phase alone. Las Palmas must attack, but their defensive structure has been shaky, and Malaga’s counter-attacking setup with Ruiz Rubio and Larrubia is well suited to punishing teams that commit forward. We predict a Malaga win, with under 2.5 goals and no score from Las Palmas being the most likely outcome. The hot tip of Malaga Win and Under 2.5 Goals combines the most probable result with a low-scoring pattern that both sides have demonstrated across recent fixtures.
