Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction: 14.02.2026 FA Cup 2025/26

As the FA Cup Round of 32 unfurls its drama, Liverpool welcome Brighton to Anfield on 14 February 2026. While Liverpool’s European pedigree and the fortress-like atmosphere at Anfield may initially tip the scales, it’s Brighton’s resilience and tactical flexibility that elevate this clash beyond a routine cup tie. With Liverpool’s attacking verve under Arne Slot meeting Fabian Hürzeler’s evolving Brighton system, we’re set for a strategic battle rooted both in recent form and nuanced team dynamics – a true test of cup football’s unpredictability.

Mohamed Salah, never far from decisive action, will shoulder much of Liverpool’s creative responsibility, aiming to exploit Brighton’s defensive vulnerabilities. For the Seagulls, Pascal Groß provides the engine in midfield, supporting both defensive cover and linking play to the front line. Their composure and footballing intelligence could very well dictate which way the midfield battle swings at Anfield.

Liverpool’s remarkable tally of 14 goals in their last five matches, contrasted sharply with Brighton’s haul of only three, spotlights the home side’s attacking power – a hot stat that looms large as both clubs prepare for this knockout showdown.

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Liverpool vs Brighton prediction

All signals point to Liverpool as favourites, and for good reason: not only do they boast a fierce home record, but their offensive sharpness has recently been on vivid display. Brighton arrive without a win in their past five, struggling for goals and occasionally looking brittle under pressure. The value here lies in a Liverpool win, potentially by more than one goal — Brighton’s attacking threat has waned, and Liverpool’s assertive style under Slot, featuring high pressing and versatile forward play, looks tailor-made for exploiting Seagulls’ recent frailties.

On the foul and discipline front, Brighton are averaging a higher yellow card tally and must tread carefully against Liverpool’s direct runners. Both teams generally favour the 4-2-3-1, but Liverpool’s pressing system yields more corners and shots — they notched up 48 corners and 107 shots in the last five compared to Brighton’s 30 corners and 57 shots. Possession should see Liverpool edge it, their controlled distribution from the back and midfield likely to keep Brighton chasing. Don’t be surprised to see Brighton look to disrupt with timely fouls, which may again invite card trouble.

Team Analysis

Liverpool come into this encounter with renewed conviction, fresh from a narrow 1-0 victory over Sunderland in the previous round. While the result was not explosive, it suggested composure and discipline, characteristics that have punctuated Liverpool’s recent run of form. They’ve amassed four wins across their last seven, including a thunderous 4-1 against Newcastle and a cup thrashing of Qarabag (6-0), showing both their scoring depth and capacity to handle various opposition styles. The defeat to Manchester City (1-2) was a reminder of vulnerabilities against elite rivals, but Brighton do not quite fit that class at present. Liverpool’s last five outings demonstrate balance, scoring 14 whilst conceding seven, and their mix of cutting edge and defensive solidity (helped by Virgil van Dijk’s leadership) will be pivotal.

Brighton, in contrast, enter Anfield winless in five and lacking offensive punch — only three goals scored in their recent quintet of fixtures. A late 1-1 draw at Everton showed glimpses of grit, but consecutive 0-1 losses to Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, plus a home defeat to Fulham, highlight their woes in creating and converting chances. Defensive frailty and midfield turnovers have been a recurrent theme, despite sturdy showings from Lewis Dunk at the back. Brighton’s key to survival will lie in keeping structure and discipline early on, hoping to frustrate Liverpool and pinch something on the counter, yet their recent statistics offer little confidence for a dramatic turnaround here.

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🚨Read our full Liverpool vs Brighton stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Liverpool the favourite

• Moneyline Liverpool 1.56 | Brighton 5.20
• Draw 4.45
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.66 | Under 2.5 2.10
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.84

The bookmakers’ logic here is obvious: Liverpool’s home advantage, goal scoring momentum, and Brighton’s dip in form combine for a confident 60 percent win probability in favour of the Reds. Even the draw, at a higher 21 percent, underlines the perceived gap in class at this stage. ‘Over 2.5 goals’ leans into Liverpool’s attacking trend and Brighton’s recent concessions, while the marginal preference to ‘BTTS: No’ reflects the gulf in firepower and reliability in attack. If you’re hunting for value, Liverpool -1.5 on the Asian Handicap offers a compelling blend of security and upside, given recent data.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Liverpool possible starting eleven

Liverpool’s preferred 4-2-3-1 will allow Szoboszlai and Mac Allister to dictate through midfield while Kerkez offers energy up the left. Up front, Ekitiké provides a dynamic focal point, flanked by the ever-dangerous Salah and the creative spark of Wirtz. The defensive pairing of van Dijk and Konaté brings composure and aerial strength, and Alisson’s shot-stopping remains one of the best in Europe. For Reds fans, the blend of youth and experience bodes well for both the present and near future.

Brighton possible starting eleven

Brighton should continue with the 4-2-3-1, anchoring the back line around Dunk and Veltman. Groß and Baleba must shield the defence and distribute quickly on the break, while Mitoma’s pace widens their options out wide. Kostoulas is a key outlet in attack after his recent goal, and much will depend on whether Rutter can convert transitional opportunities. Expect disciplined pressing but an overall cautious approach as they look to disrupt Liverpool’s rhythm.

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My take on the Match

The composition of talent and form makes this a compelling FA Cup tie but, in truth, it’s hard to look past a Liverpool victory. The Reds are not only functioning at a higher gear but arriving at the right moment in the season, with players like Salah and van Dijk combining to form a deadly spine. Brighton’s struggles in front of goal and their defensive lapses suggest they’ll spend much of the match under duress. I back Liverpool to control proceedings, win with margin (a 2-0 or 3-0 result seems likeliest), and showcase the credentials of a side determined to chase further glory in 2026. For neutrals, watch for Brighton’s organisation and spirit — but in terms of prediction, this is Liverpool’s to lose.

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