Liam Duckstein
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Levski Sofia welcome Jagiellonia to the Vasil Levski National Stadium for a Matchday 4 fixture that both sides genuinely need to win. Neither club has pulled clear of the relegation zone in this oversized league table, and with four points separating them from safety, a slip here could prove costly. Interestingly, both teams arrive off the back of thumping domestic wins in their most recent league outings, a sign that confidence at club level is higher than their European form suggests.
Keep an eye on Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno, Levski’s sharpest attacking weapon with two goals and an assist across his last two outings, a return that dwarfs the rest of the squad’s production. For Jagiellonia, Ousmane Sow has been the one forward finding the net regularly and carries the biggest threat on the counter against a Levski side that doesn’t commit many men forward.
Hot stat: Levski have managed just 14 total shots across their last five matches combined, barely three per game on average, a remarkably low output for a team installed as home favourites here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sofia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:45 CEST |
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia prediction
We predict Levski Sofia to edge this one, though perhaps not by a convincing margin. Their home record and the bookmakers’ near 48% implied probability both point the same direction, and Jagiellonia’s away form in Europe has been patchy at best, with two defeats already on the board from three League Phase matches. Our value lean sits on Levski Draw No Bet rather than the outright moneyline, since the draw odds remain tempting enough to protect against a cagey night.
Jagiellonia carry noticeably more cards and fouls into this fixture, four yellows and 47 fouls across their last five matches against Levski’s one yellow and 25 fouls, a discipline gap that could easily tip in Levski’s favor if the visitors start pressing aggressively for an away goal. Jagiellonia also complete far more passes and rack up significantly more shots per game, so expect them to dominate territory without necessarily converting that into clear chances against a compact Levski back line.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Levski Sofia Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Levski Sofia come into this match on a run of three wins and two draws across their last five, a solid stretch without a single loss. Their most recent outing against Dunav Ruse ended 1-0, a narrow but efficient win that fit their pattern of grinding out results rather than overpowering opponents. In our preview of Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia we backed the hosts to claim a comfortable home win, and the 2-1 scoreline in Levski’s favor actually went against that call, since Levski were the team that won on the road. That result should give the Bulgarian side plenty of belief heading into this one.
Jagiellonia’s recent run reads three wins from their last five, but two of those losses came in Europe, and their most recent result was a 3-1 win over KS Wieczysta Krakow domestically, a game that papered over some defensive cracks that showed up badly against Anderlecht. In our preview of Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht we called for the visitors to leave Bialystok unbeaten, and the eventual 0-3 result for Anderlecht confirmed that read, even if the margin ended up wider than we expected.
🚨Check out our dedicated Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Levski Sofia the favourite
- Moneyline Levski Sofia 2.02 | Jagiellonia 3.69
- Draw 3.55
The market leans fairly clearly towards Levski, with implied probability sitting close to 48% against Jagiellonia’s 26%. That gap seems reasonable given the home advantage and Levski’s unbeaten run, though the draw price at 3.55 looks a touch generous for a match between two sides fighting for the same points in the table. Our team sees genuine value in that draw line as an each-way hedge alongside backing Levski outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
Levski Sofia possible starting eleven
- GK: Svetoslav Vutsov
- DF: Kristian Dimitrov, Christian Makoun, Aldair, Maicon Araújo dos Santos
- MF: Marko Grujić, Sergio Miguel Lobo Araujo, Mehdi Moubarik, Armstrong Oko-Flex, Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez
- FW: Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno
Julio Velázquez tends to set his side up in a 4-2-3-1, leaning on Grujić’s experience to shield the back four while Satorno plays off the shoulder of the last defender. Oko-Flex and Perea give width and pace on the counter, which suits a side happy to sit back against a possession-heavy opponent like Jagiellonia.
Jagiellonia possible starting eleven
- GK: Sławomir Abramowicz
- DF: Bernardo Vital, Dušan Stojinović, Yuki Kobayashi, Rodrigo Conceição
- MF: Taras Romanczuk, Jesús Imaz, Ferslev Anders Klynge
- FW: Ousmane Sow, Kajetan Szmyt, Kamil Jóźwiak
Adrian Siemieniec usually sticks to a 4-3-3, and this group has featured together most often across the last five games. Vital’s habit of pushing forward from the back has produced a goal already, but his two yellow cards in that span mean discipline could become an issue against a Levski side that likes to draw fouls in dangerous areas.
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Jagiellonia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a tight contest that ultimately falls Levski’s way, perhaps by the odd goal. Their unbeaten run of five matches and home comfort should outweigh Jagiellonia’s superior pass volume, especially since the Polish side’s away record in this competition reads two defeats from three. To be honest, goals look unlikely to flow freely given Levski’s low shot count this season, so our combined lean stays Levski Draw No Bet with Under 2.5 goals, backing control over chaos in a match where both coaches will be wary of an early mistake.
