Liam Duckstein
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Latvia and Cyprus meet in League C Group 2 with both teams sitting at the bottom of the table after matchday one. Latvia fell 2-0 away to Armenia, while Cyprus lost 2-1 at home to Montenegro. Neither result surprised us much, but the way both teams conceded tells its own story.
This one has the feel of a game neither coach wants to lose, given how tight this group already looks after just a single round. Latvia have not scored more than one goal in a match all year, and Cyprus have shipped goals in four of their last five outings. That combination points toward a cagey, low-event contest rather than a shootout.
Watch for Vladislavs Gutkovskis up front for Latvia. He has carried most of the shot volume in recent matches and remains the closest thing to a goal threat the hosts have. On the Cyprus side, Marcus Edwards is the player to track, he scored their last recorded goal and offers the kind of individual quality that can unlock a stubborn Latvian back line.
Hot stat: Latvia have scored just three goals across their last five matches, and two of those came in identical 1-0 wins over Gibraltar, hardly a measure of attacking form against a side like Cyprus.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League C Group 2 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Latvia vs Cyprus prediction
We lean toward Cyprus edging this on current attacking numbers, but not by a wide margin. Cyprus have generated more shots and completed more attacking actions across their last five games, while Latvia have struggled to create anything from open play. A narrow away win, or a draw with Cyprus scoring, both look live outcomes here.
Latvia’s discipline stands out defensively, zero yellow cards across their sample of recent games compared to three for Cyprus, which suggests the hosts play a more controlled, positional game rather than pressing high and risking fouls. Cyprus commit more fouls and shoot more often, a sign of a team happy to force the issue physically and take chances from distance. That contrast should produce a match with moderate cards but limited clear-cut chances, favoring lower goal totals overall.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Cyprus Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Latvia’s most recent outing against Armenia ended in a 0-2 defeat, continuing a stretch where the side has struggled to find the net against anything but the weakest opposition in the group. Their form across the last several matches shows more losses and draws than wins, with the two victories both coming by a single goal over Gibraltar. In our preview of Armenia vs Latvia we backed a tight game with goals at both ends and Latvia avoiding defeat, and the 0-2 result went against us, Armenia controlled that match more comfortably than we expected.
Cyprus travelled to Montenegro and lost 1-2, a game where they at least got on the scoresheet, unlike Latvia in their last fixture. Their recent form also skews toward losses, though they have shown flashes of goals in games against Moldova and Slovenia. In our preview of Montenegro vs Cyprus we called a Montenegro win with goals at both ends and pointed to a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline, and the 1-2 result delivered exactly that shape, Montenegro’s home edge and Cyprus’s ability to score both showed up as predicted.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Latvia and Cyprus have no recent competitive meetings on record between them, so there is no head-to-head data to draw from for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated Latvia vs Cyprus stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Cyprus the favourite
- Moneyline Latvia 2.56 | Cyprus 2.67
- Draw 3.18
The market barely separates these two sides, and honestly, that lines up with what the data shows. Cyprus carry a slightly shorter price, reflecting their higher shot output and goal involvement in recent matches, but the gap between home and away odds is thin enough that we would not call this a strong favourite situation either way. The draw price sitting close to both outright odds backs up our view that this could be a cagey, low-scoring affair.
Latvia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Latvia possible starting eleven
- GK: Rihards Matrevics
- DF: Andrejs Cigaņiks, Antonijs Černomordijs, Deniss Meļņiks, Dennis Cirkin
- MF: Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Lukass Vapne, Markuss Strods
- FW: Vladislavs Gutkovskis, Eduards Daskevics, Roberts Uldriķis
Paolo Nicolato tends to stick with his back four intact based on playing time, and we expect the same 4-3-3 shape here. Zelenkovs and Vapne both played full ninety minutes last time out and look set to anchor the midfield again. Gutkovskis remains the focal point up front given his shot volume compared to teammates.
Cyprus possible starting eleven
- GK: Fabiano
- DF: Giorgos Malekkidis, Konstantinos Sotiriou, Nikolas Panagiotou, Leonidas Konomis
- MF: Hector Kyprianou, Grigoris Kastanos, Nicholas Tsaroulla, Panagiotis Andreou, Ioannis Pittas
- FW: Marcus Edwards
Apostolos Mantzios has favored a 4-1-4-1 setup recently, with Kyprianou sitting deepest to shield the back four. Kastanos and Edwards carry the biggest creative and goalscoring threat in this group, both were heavily involved in Cyprus’s most productive attacking moments this year.
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Cyprus. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a tight, low-scoring game where Cyprus shade it on the balance of their attacking output. Latvia’s discipline keeps them competitive, but their inability to score against anything but the group’s weakest side is hard to ignore heading into this match. Perhaps a single goal separates these two by full time, and to be honest, a draw would not shock us either given how even the underlying numbers look. Our lean stays with Cyprus avoiding defeat, backed by Under 2.5 total goals.
Read also: Latvia vs Cyprus Head-to-Head: Record, Stats and Form as of 26 Sep 2026
Read also: Latvia vs Cyprus Team News and Predicted Lineups: Who Starts?
