Sofia Quijada
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Lanus welcome Velez Sarsfield to the Estadio Ciudad de Lanus in a Clausura fixture that pits a hot home side against the division’s only unbeaten team. Velez sit fourth with zero losses in 11 league games, built on six draws and five wins, while Lanus have climbed back into form with three wins in their last four outings. The sharpest detail here is Velez’s habit of drawing too often, six stalemates already, which keeps their points total respectable but gives Lanus an opening if they can avoid gifting goals away like they did against Boca and Tigre earlier in the campaign.
Watch Eduardo Salvio for Lanus, he has one goal and three assists in his last three appearances and dictates the tempo from a free role behind the striker. On the other side, Ronaldo Martinez has been unstoppable for Velez with five goals in his last three games, a conversion rate few defenders in this league can handle.
Hot stat: Ronaldo Martinez has scored in every one of his last three matches for Velez Sarsfield, racking up five goals total, the single most explosive individual run of form in this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield prediction
We predict Lanus to edge this one at home, backed by three wins in their last four and a head-to-head record that favours them 2-1-2 across the last five meetings. Velez’s unbeaten run is real, but so is their tendency to settle for draws rather than force results, something that plays into Lanus’ hands on home soil where they have won 75% of their games over the last month. Perhaps the bigger worry for Velez is defensive sharpness away from home against a Lanus front line that has scored in four of its last five matches.
Discipline tells its own story here. Lanus have picked up six yellow cards across their last five games against just one for Velez, suggesting the home side plays with more physical edge and concedes more fouls, 32 against Velez’s 30. Velez’s passing volume and shot count, 40 attempts to Lanus’ 28 in the same stretch, point to a side that dominates territory but converts less clinically, which lines up with their high draw count. Expect a physical midfield battle with Lanus pressing higher and Velez trying to play through it patiently.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ronaldo Martinez to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Lanus drew 0-0 with Newells Old Boys in their last outing, a result that stalled a three-game winning streak but kept their unbeaten home form intact. Before that they beat Estudiantes LP 2-1, thrashed Deportivo Riestra 3-0 and edged Defensa y Justicia 1-0, only losing once in their last five against Boca Juniors. In our preview of Newells Old Boys vs Lanus we called a Lanus win built around Salvio, Wlk Duré and Besozzi finding gaps against a tired Newells defense, and the 0-0 result went against us as Lanus’ attack went quiet for a fourth time in five games.
Velez Sarsfield drew 2-2 with Platense in their most recent game, a result that extended their draw-heavy Clausura pattern to six stalemates on the season. Before that they won 3-2 against Tigre and drew 1-1 with Newells Old Boys, and their only real wobble came in a 3-4 loss to Boca Juniors earlier in the run. In our preview of Velez Sarsfield vs Platense we called a clean Velez win under 2.5 goals with BTTS No, and the eventual 2-2 draw went against that call as both sides traded goals in an open match.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Lanus | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5 meetings) | 3 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield stats page for more info.
Velez Sarsfield. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Lanus the favourite
- Moneyline Lanus 2.20 | Velez Sarsfield 3.55
- Draw 2.86
Bookmakers give Lanus roughly 42% implied probability against 26% for Velez and 32% for the draw, a gap that matches their home form over the last 30 days. We see value backing Lanus outright rather than the draw, since Velez’s unbeaten record leans heavily on draws rather than away dominance, and Lanus have the sharper attacking returns heading into this one.
Possible Starting Lineups
Lanus possible starting eleven
- GK: Nahuel Hernan Losada
- DF: Sasha Julian Marcich, Carlos Izquierdoz, Ronaldo Dejesús López, Tomás Guidara
- MF: Agustín Cardozo, Diego Agustín Medina, Lucas Agustín Besozzi, Marcelino Moreno, Allan Steven Wlk Duré
- FW: Eduardo Salvio
Pellegrino should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has worked in four of his last five games. Cardozo and Medina shield the back four while Salvio roams centrally behind Wlk Duré and Besozzi on the flanks. Marcich and Izquierdoz have played every minute across the last three fixtures and anchor a backline that has conceded just twice in five games.
Velez Sarsfield possible starting eleven
- GK: Tomás Marchiori
- DF: Joaquin Garcia, Elías Gómez, Thiago Silvero, Lisandro Magallán
- MF: Rodrigo Aliendro, Lucas Robertone, Manuel Lanzini, Diego Valdés, Matías Pellegrini
- FW: Ronaldo Martinez
Barros Schelotto favours the same 4-2-3-1, with Aliendro and Robertone controlling possession in midfield, both having played nearly every minute of the last three games. Lanzini sits behind Martinez, the clear focal point after five goals in three starts, with Valdés and Pellegrini supporting from the wide channels.
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Lanus. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We lean towards a narrow Lanus win, perhaps 2-1, with goals expected from both sides given Velez’s recent habit of conceding in high-scoring draws. Lanus’ home form, their three wins in four, their sharper finishing through Salvio and Wlk Duré, and a favourable head-to-head record all point the same direction. Velez’s unbeaten streak is built on resilience rather than firepower away from home, and that distinction should matter in Buenos Aires.
