Sofia Quijada
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Lanus welcome Estudiantes LP to Estadio Ciudad de Lanus in a Clausura fixture that matters more to the visitors on paper, sitting 22nd in the table, than to a Lanus side parked in mid-table comfort at 13th. The interesting wrinkle here is the gap between domestic form and continental form: Estudiantes have been dreadful in the league yet beat Corinthians Paulista twice in their last three outings in a different competition, which tells us their squad quality is not the issue, their consistency at home league level is.
Felipe Peña Biafore has quietly produced two goals in his last four appearances for Lanus from a central midfield role, and his link-up with Eduardo Salvio gives the hosts a genuine creative outlet. On the other side, Alexis Castro has matched that output with two goals of his own for Estudiantes and remains their most reliable source of chances from midfield, so both playmakers carry real weight on the scoreline tonight.
Hot stat: Estudiantes LP have committed 82 fouls and picked up 15 yellow cards across their last five matches, more than double the 6 bookings Lanus collected in the same stretch, despite the home side actually facing more total shots. That discipline gap could hand Lanus a stream of set-piece opportunities on their own turf.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Ciudad de Lanus, Buenos Aires |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:15 CEST |
Lanus vs Estudiantes LP prediction
We lean toward Lanus here, and not just because the market agrees with roughly 43% implied probability. Lanus have won two of their last five, including a comfortable 3-0 defeat of Deportivo Riestra last time out, and they are playing at home where their compact 4-2-3-1 has generated more shots on target relative to attempts than Estudiantes managed away from home. Estudiantes arrive with a patchy Clausura campaign, sitting second from bottom in the group table, and their recent 0-1 loss to Velez Sarsfield exposed a defense that struggles when pressed high.
Lanus average 1782 passes per match with roughly 78% accuracy, close to Estudiantes’ own 78.8% off a bigger 2215-pass sample, so possession numbers are near identical and this should come down to who converts their moments. Estudiantes rack up more shots per game (66 over five matches against Lanus’ 50) but have scored one fewer goal in that span, a clinical edge that favors the hosts. The foul count gap, 45 for Lanus against 82 for Estudiantes, also suggests the visitors will spend more time defending free kicks and corners than attacking them.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lanus to win either half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Lanus arrive off a 3-0 win over Deportivo Riestra, their most convincing display of the last month, following a 1-0 win against Defensa y Justicia and a narrow 0-1 defeat to Boca Juniors. The pattern across their last five shows two wins, one draw and two losses, a mixed bag that nonetheless includes clean defensive performances against sides ranked above them. Felipe Peña Biafore and Carlos Izquierdoz have both chipped in with goals from deep positions, giving Mauricio Pellegrino’s side more than one route to score.
Estudiantes LP head into this one on a 1-0 win over Corinthians Paulista, part of a run where they have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five across competitions. Their domestic form tells a different story though, a 0-1 loss to Velez Sarsfield and a scoreless draw with Newells Old Boys highlight how toothless they can look in the league proper. Alexis Castro and Adolfo Gaich remain their most productive attackers, but neither has found consistent service against sides that sit off and defend in numbers, which is exactly what Lanus tend to do at home.
In our preview of Corinthians Paulista vs Estudiantes LP we backed the draw as the safer play given both sides’ shaky recent form, and the eventual 1-0 win for Estudiantes went against that call, showing they can still grind out results away from home when the game stays tight.
🚨Check out our dedicated Lanus vs Estudiantes LP stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Lanus the favourite
- Moneyline Lanus 2.15 | Estudiantes LP 3.87
- Draw 3.05
Sharp books price Lanus as clear favourites here despite their mid-table position, largely because home advantage and Estudiantes’ league struggles carry more weight than the standings suggest. A draw at odds near 3.05 looks fair given both teams’ inconsistency, but we do not see enough value there to recommend it over backing the hosts outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
Lanus possible starting eleven
- GK: Nahuel Hernan Losada
- DF: José Canale, Carlos Izquierdoz, Sasha Julian Marcich, Tomás Guidara
- MF: Franco Nahuel Watson, Agustín Cardozo, Felipe Peña Biafore, Matías Sepúlveda, Eduardo Salvio
- FW: Allan Steven Wlk Duré
Pellegrino keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in each of the last five matches. Salvio’s experience behind the striker gives Lanus a reliable outlet, while Peña Biafore’s recent scoring form makes him one to watch from a deeper role.
Estudiantes LP possible starting eleven
- GK: Fernando Muslera
- DF: Santiago Núñez, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, Eros Nazareno Mancuso, Eric Meza
- MF: Gabriel Neves, Lucas Piovi, Alexis Castro, Joaquín Correa, Edwuin Cetre
- FW: Guido Carrillo
Medina also sticks with a 4-2-3-1, with Muslera’s experience anchoring a backline that has conceded regularly this Clausura. Castro’s creative influence and Carrillo’s hold-up play give Estudiantes their best chance of causing problems on the road.
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Estudiantes LP. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Lanus to edge this one at home, backed by their stronger recent defensive numbers and a foul count that should keep Estudiantes chasing the game rather than dictating it. The visitors carry enough attacking talent through Castro and Carrillo to trouble any side, but their league form does not inspire confidence away from home. Perhaps a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline is the most realistic outcome, with goals at a premium given both teams’ modest scoring rates this season. To be honest, this looks like a game decided by one clean finish rather than a shootout.
