Konyaspor vs Aliaga Prediction: 05.02.2026 Turkish Cup

The Turkish Cup 2025/26 Group B heats up with a compelling fixture as Konyaspor host Aliaga at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. Konyaspor, led by Çağdaş Atan, look to capitalize on their Group B momentum, while Polat Çetin’s Aliaga are keen to turn their domestic form into cup results. This match presents an intriguing contrast: Konyaspor’s tactical discipline and home advantage versus an Aliaga side riding high on confidence from recent league performances.

Midfielder Deniz Türüç is a standout for Konyaspor, contributing significantly both creatively and in terms of ball retention. On the opposite side, Aliaga’s forward Malik Karaahmet impresses not only with his recent goal but also with his incisive attacking movement, which could trouble Konyaspor’s defensive lines. These two players will be essential as both teams aim to seize Group B’s key points.

Arguably the “hot stat” for this encounter is Aliaga’s impressive 67% win rate over their last six matches, demonstrating potent form despite their underdog status—a fact not to be overlooked when considering betting opportunities.

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Konyaspor vs Aliaga prediction

Given Konyaspor’s stronger pedigree and home advantage—where they are unbeaten in the group—backing them for the win is a clear value play. However, Aliaga’s robust form in domestic fixtures, winning four of their last six matches, adds an element of unpredictability, especially if they can exploit set piece opportunities and counterattacks.

Both sides adopt the 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing midfield solidity and width. Konyaspor generally control possession (notable for 1274 attempted passes in their last five matches) and create through technical midfielders like Türüç and Bjorlo. However, their discipline can be tested—they’ve conceded 13 yellow cards in five fixtures, indicating a physical edge that may lead to set-piece opportunities for Aliaga.

Aliaga, meanwhile, play with freedom but can be vulnerable defensively, especially on set pieces, as shown by their negative group goal difference (-4) and high total of 22 corners conceded in their recent outings. Their attacking risks yielded seven goals in their last five games but at the cost of control in midfield. Expect Konyaspor to seize on this imbalance, but Aliaga’s recent efficiency in front of goal keeps both teams’ scoring prospects live.

Team Analysis

Konyaspor Recent Matches:
Konyaspor’s latest cup matches show a team built on ball retention and a compact defensive structure. Their recent 1-2 home loss to Besiktas exposed some defensive fragility against elite opposition, but prior results—a 1-1 draw with Gaziantep and a 2-1 over Bodrumspor—demonstrate resilience and the ability to find goals when needed. Across their last five, Konyaspor have netted 5 goals, with attacking output spread across Kramer, Muleka, and Türüç—each contributing at least one goal. However, their 44 total fouls and 13 yellow cards underline their aggressive pressure approach, which has at times led to dangerous set-piece situations against.

Aliaga Recent Matches:
Aliaga enter this tie on the back of improved domestic form, most recently defeating Ankara Demirspor 2-1 and Mardin 1969 2-0. They show an attacking impetus—seven goals in five matches, buoyed by contributions from Malik Karaahmet and Burak Süleyman. However, a 2-6 defeat against Samsunspor signals defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against clinical finishers and structured defences. Their discipline has been noteworthy, with only one yellow and one red card from five games, a vital factor in maintaining eleven players on the pitch throughout. Despite defensive gaps, their success in open play gives them a fighting chance to surprise Konyaspor if the favorites drop their guard.

🚨Read our full Konyaspor vs Aliaga stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Konyaspor the favourite

• Moneyline Konyaspor 1.24 – 1.18 | Aliaga 9.60 – 8.46
• Draw 5.60 – 5.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.70 | Under 2.5 2.10
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.75

Konyaspor enjoy overwhelming backing from bookmakers with a win probability averaging 74%, reflecting their superior group form and home advantage. Aliaga’s underdog odds above 8.00 highlight the perceived gulf in class. The value on over 2.5 goals and BTTS comes from both teams’ recent scoring trends and Aliaga’s surprisingly effective attack. Overall, Konyaspor’s defensive shakiness and Aliaga’s scoring form make goals a wise market to explore over a straight moneyline punt.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Konyaspor possible starting eleven

Konyaspor’s likely to stick with their favored 4-2-3-1, offering defensive structure and pace on the flanks. Türüç, Bjorlo, and Bardhi provide technical edge and set-piece threat. Muleka—backed by Kramer as a proven alternative—leads the line with physicality and ability in transition. Keep an eye on Türüç’s role in dictating play and Kramer’s ability to capitalize on defensive lapses.

Aliaga possible starting eleven

Aliaga will look to their best 4-2-3-1 shape, emphasizing solidity in midfield with Sarikaya and Babaoglu. Karaahmet is the danger man up front, ably supported by Süleyman’s creative runs. Their combination of youth and experience will be key, and a big performance is needed from Kartal at the back to keep Konyaspor at bay.

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My take on the Match

Konyaspor’s home advantage, superior squad depth, and disciplined tactical approach make them favorites here. The best play is Konyaspor -1.5 on the Asian Handicap given Aliaga’s defensive inconsistencies—especially on the road—and Konyaspor’s proven attacking output in Group B. However, Aliaga’s form across six games cannot be dismissed entirely. Expect an open contest with plenty of goalscoring chances at both ends. If you’re considering additional markets, both teams to score or over 2.5 goals provide value, catching the strengths and vulnerabilities of each side.

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