Inter vs Milan Prediction: 23.11.2025 Serie A

The Derby della Madonnina returns as Inter welcome Milan to the storied San Siro for a pivotal Serie A showdown. Both giants are firmly in the hunt for the Scudetto, sitting within two points of each other at the Serie A summit. While Inter’s recent attacking outbursts grab headlines, Milan’s tactical tweaks under Allegri have solidified their resilience — setting the stage for another fiercely contested Milan derby.

Among a host of potential game-changers, keep a close eye on Inter’s Lautaro Martínez, who leads their front line with relentless movement and a clinical edge, and Milan’s Rafael Leão, whose ability to unlock defences in transition remains unmatched. Both sides have also leaned upon their creative midfield engines — Hakan Çalhanoğlu for Inter and Luka Modrić for Milan — to dictate tempo and provide service to their respective strikers.

Here’s an outstanding stat that crystallizes the momentum: Inter have won six of their last seven matches across all competitions — an 86% win rate over the past month, signaling both consistency and confidence in big occasions.

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Inter vs Milan prediction

The best value prediction points towards an Inter victory or a draw (Draw No Bet Inter). Inter’s superior form (six wins in seven and league-leading attack) contrasts with Milan’s pattern of draws and occasional goal droughts. Inter’s precision in possession (pass accuracy 87%) and set-piece threat (32 corners in last five) add weight to their home advantage. Milan may have the individual brilliance but are yet to string together consistent offensive performances in pressure matchups this season.

Expect a clash of philosophies: Inter’s aggressive ball recovery, high shot output (89 shots in last five), and robust midfield pressing can disrupt Milan’s more possession-focused, cautious buildup. Both teams are disciplined in defense, though, each averaging just over one yellow card per game and showing solid structural integrity. Fouls will be plentiful (Inter 60, Milan 38 in last five), but history suggests careful refereeing keeps cards manageable. This should produce a tactically rich, balanced derby without descending into chaos.

Team Analysis

Inter’s recent games have reflected a side in relentless form. Their last match, a 2-0 home win against Lazio, was a masterclass in efficiency — Inter outshot the visitors and kept a disciplined defensive line, conceding minimal clear chances. Prior to that, victories over Kairat Almaty (2-1) and Verona (2-1) highlighted the team’s adaptability and attacking depth, while a 3-0 win against Fiorentina underscored their ability to dominate weaker opponents. The sole recent blip was a 1-3 loss to Napoli, a game marked by defensive lapses but also a show of character in response since, racking up consecutive wins. Inter’s 10 goals in the last five matches showcase a multi-pronged threat: Çalhanoğlu has netted three, while Martínez and others chip in regularly.

Milan have been less consistent but remain tough to beat. Their most recent fixture, a 2-2 draw with Parma, saw Milan concede late after leading, suggesting concentration issues remain. However, the slim 1-0 win over Roma (third in the table) was a testament to their organizational discipline, with Leão and Saelemaekers orchestrating attacks. Milan’s draws against Atalanta (1-1) and Pisa (2-2) hearken to a side under transition, not always clicking in the final third but difficult to break down defensively. The 2-1 result versus Fiorentina illustrates that they still have match-winners in pivotal moments. Overall, Milan have only lost once all season but need to rediscover their clinical edge up front for a statement away result here.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Inter vs Milan stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Inter the favourite

• Moneyline Inter 1.97 | Milan 4.04
• Draw 3.48
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.95
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.93 | No 1.99

The bookies understandably make Inter narrow favourites based on form and home advantage, pricing them below even money on most markets. Milan’s odds reflect both their potential for a result and their recent tendency to draw difficult away fixtures. The total goals market leans slightly to the under in expectation of a tense, strategic derby, while both teams to score is close, suggesting the odds-makers anticipate goals from each side but a close overall contest.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Inter possible starting eleven

This projected 3-5-2 formation reflects Inter’s blend of defensive solidity and attacking intent. Sommer brings assurance in goal, while the De Vrij-Bastoni-Akanji trio anchors the backline. Midfield balance is built on Barella’s industry and Çalhanoğlu’s creativity — the latter a proven match-winner from range or set-pieces. Dumfries and Dimarco provide width, while Lautaro is the clear focal point up front, supported by the energetic Bonny. Expect rotations between Bonny and Thuram, but Martínez must remain central to Inter’s attacking ambitions.
Formation: 3-5-2 with potential transitional shifts to 3-4-1-2 based on phases of play.

Milan possible starting eleven

Milan are likely to mirror the 3-5-2 structure seen in recent weeks, with Maignan’s shot-stopping a crucial foundation. Tomori and Gabbia supply aerial prowess and anticipation, while Modrić and Ricci are tasked with dictating tempo. Leão is Milan’s primary attacking outlet, pairing with Nkunku for speed and finishing. The midfield is engineered for control and adaptability, backed by the hard-working Fofana and the versatile Saelemaekers. Watch for tactical in-game switches, especially with Allegri capable of shifting shapes to bolster either attack or defense.
Formation: 3-5-2 emphasizing midfield stability and quick transitions through Leão.

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My take on the Match

This derby promises intensity and finely tuned tactics, but on current evidence Inter hold the edge — both in defensive organization and offensive versatility. My main pick: Inter Draw No Bet. Backed by the best home record in the league, clinical finishing from Martínez and Çalhanoğlu, and the ability to grind out results, Inter look well poised to continue their run. Milan remain dangerous, but without more consistency in attack, they may find it tough to leave San Siro with all three points. Expect a match of narrow margins and moments of individual brilliance — classic Derby della Madonnina fare.

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