Inter vs Bologna Prediction: 19.12.2025 Supercoppa Italiana Semifinals

European nights always carry their own sense of occasion, but there’s something captivating about this Supercoppa Italiana semifinal clashing Inter and Bologna at Brann Stadion in Bergen. Both sides have embraced the 3-5-2 formation under new-age managers Cristian Chivu and Vincenzo Italiano, promising a tactical joust that stretches far beyond domestic rivalry. And while neutral fans might see Inter as the larger name, recent results suggest Bologna arrive with more than just hope—they bring genuine belief, having bested Inter 1-0 in their last Serie A encounter.

All eyes will inevitably fall on Inter’s goal machine Lautaro Martínez, with 4 goals in his last 5 games, while Bologna’s experienced attacker Federico Bernardeschi (2 goals in 5) remains their wildcard, always one touch away from producing game-defining moments. But keep an eye on midfield as well: Inter’s Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Bologna’s Lewis Ferguson have quietly pulled the strings, controlling tempo and knitting together every attack.

One hot stat? Inter have slotted home 13 goals in their last 5 matches, a vivid demonstration of their attacking prowess right when the stakes peak.

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Inter vs Bologna prediction

Looking for outright value? The bookmakers may slightly favour Bologna, but the statistical waters run deeper. Inter’s attack is firing—13 goals in 5 and a clinical edge up front. However, Bologna have lost just twice in their last 7 games and have shown resilience, particularly in grinding out results against Juventus and Lazio. Given both sides’ near-identical win rates (57% over the past month), this isn’t the routine win some might expect for the Nerazzurri.

Discipline could tip the balance: Both teams collected 8 yellow cards in their last 5 games, but Bologna conceded 35 corners compared to Inter’s 28, signifying real defensive toil and the potential for Inter’s wingbacks to pile on pressure. Ball progression? Both sides average above 2000 completed passes in 5 games—Inter slightly behind on pass completion (78 percent to 69 percent for Bologna). This reflects a slightly riskier, vertical approach from the Rossoblù. Expect Inter’s more precise possession to grant them marginal control, while Bologna’s rapid transitions and higher interception count (48 vs Inter’s 33) could wreak havoc if Inter get sloppy in midfield.

With both sides wedded to the 3-5-2 and pounding out similar stats, the safe play might be in the Asian Handicap market (Inter 0), but don’t rule out both teams finding the net. Goals, corners, and a few spicy yellow moments await.

Team Analysis

Inter’s recent run-in began with a gritty 2-1 win over Genoa, showing both grit and moments of vulnerability as they conceded under pressure late on. The loss to Liverpool (0-1) in Europe offered lessons in compact defending, but Chivu’s men bounced back in style—hammering Como (4-0) and Venezia (5-1) with ruthless attacking verve. Their 3-5-2 relies on wingbacks’ width, and the chemistry between Martínez and Thuram up top has blossomed. However, occasional lapses at the back were evident in the defeat against Liverpool. Maintain focus, and they have the tools to dominate.

Bologna have crafted themselves a reputation as Serie A’s dark horses and rode that momentum through some tough fixtures. They managed a nervy 1-1 draw with Lazio before dispatching Celta Vigo (2-1) and Parma (2-1). That said, a surprise 1-3 slip against Cremonese revealed lingering defensive frailties, particularly from set pieces and crosses. However, the 0-1 defeat to Juventus was full of fighting spirit—Bologna matched them physically and only succumbed via a rare moment of quality. Their shape in the 3-5-2 can frustrate bigger sides, but they will need to keep mistakes to a minimum against Inter’s relentless attackers.

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🚨Read our full Inter vs Bologna stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bologna the favourite

• Moneyline Inter 1.66 | Bologna 5.25
• Draw 3.80
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.95 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.73 | No 2.10

Bologna are backed by the oddsmakers as favourites with a 56 percent win probability, but Inter’s odds (hovering about 1.66-1.72) suggest significant market confidence in a Nerazzurri triumph over 90 minutes. The draw is not out of the question, especially with both sides showing a penchant for tightly contested matches in recent weeks. Over 2.5 goals feels well-priced considering Inter’s scoring form, but don’t discount late drama—both teams love a flurry after the break. BTTS is especially enticing with both attacks humming.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Inter possible starting eleven

With Chivu sticking to the proven 3-5-2, Yann Sommer’s reliability between the posts is essential. Bastoni and de Vrij marshal the back three, while Dimarco provides width and energy down the left. The midfield trio of Barella, Çalhanoğlu, and Frattesi balances ball retention with attacking thrust. Up front, Martínez and Thuram form a relentless, mobile partnership—expect them to press high and feed off quick transitions.

Bologna possible starting eleven

Italiano is likely to match Inter’s shape. Ravaglia remains an ever-present in goal, while Lucumi and Miranda shore up defence. In midfield, Ferguson’s box-to-box dynamism is vital while Orsolini and Lykogiannis are key cogs down the flanks. Up front, Bernardeschi and Odgaard have the tools to trouble Inter’s defence on the counter, with Bernardeschi especially adept at drifting between the lines. Expect a 3-5-2 with defensive discipline and rapid transitions forward.

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My take on the Match

Despite Bologna’s slight edge in bookmakers’ eyes, Inter’s current form and attacking output are a cut above. Martínez and Thuram are in sync, and when Inter build rhythm in midfield, it’s hard to see them falter. That said, Bologna’s resilience and high interception numbers signal they won’t go quietly. Expect goals at both ends and plenty of drama, but Inter to edge this—perhaps after a high-scoring draw in regulation.

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