Liam Duckstein
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Hull welcome Brentford to MKM Stadium on Sunday with both clubs sitting closer together in the table than their recent form suggests. Brentford occupy sixth spot on ten points, Hull are just a point behind in ninth, yet neither side has won a single game in October so far. The interesting wrinkle here is discipline: Brentford have been reduced to ten men twice in their last five matches, a red card rate that stands out for a side currently inside the top six.
Keep an eye on Mohamed Belloumi up front for Hull, he has found the net once in his last two outings and carries most of the home side’s attacking threat on the counter. For Brentford, Kristoffer Ajer has chipped in with a goal from defence recently and remains the aerial focal point at both ends of the pitch.
Hot stat: Brentford have seen red twice across their last five league matches, a discipline record that sits awkwardly next to their top-six status and Hull, by contrast, have gone the same stretch without a single sending off.
| 🏆 Tournament: | English Premier League 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | MKM Stadium, Hull |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Hull vs Brentford prediction
Bookmakers lean heavily toward Brentford here, giving them 56% implied probability against Hull’s 20%, and the league table backs that read up. We’re not fully convinced an outright Brentford win is the smart play though. The Bees have lost to Liverpool and drawn with Aston Villa in their last two outings, and Hull have shown they can hang with better sides, drawing with Chelsea and Everton in recent weeks. Our lean is Brentford Double Chance (draw or win), it covers the obvious quality gap without overpaying for a result Brentford haven’t been reliably producing lately.
Brentford’s numbers over the last five matches show a side that dominates the ball, 691 passes against Hull’s 531, and gets more shots away, 24 to 14. That control comes with baggage: 31 fouls, seven yellow cards and two reds in that span, against just 26 fouls and four yellows for Hull with zero dismissals. If Brentford press high and get frustrated chasing the game, Hull’s disciplined shape could turn into a string of free kicks and cards for the visitors, something worth weighing for the game’s overall card markets.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Kristoffer Ajer to score or assist |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Hull haven’t tasted victory in five league matches, with two draws sandwiched between three defeats. Their most recent trip to Fulham ended 1-0 in the home side’s favour, a game where Hull created little and were punished for a lack of cutting edge up front. The draws against Chelsea and Everton showed some resilience, Hull clawed back from behind on both occasions, but the finishing touch keeps letting them down at the business end. In our preview of Fulham vs Hull we backed Hull to leave Craven Cottage unbeaten with goals at both ends, and the 1-0 result went against us as Hull were shut out on the road.
Brentford’s recent run tells a similar story of inconsistency dressed up by an earlier hot streak. Wins over Chelsea and Reading gave the Bees momentum heading into October, but back to back results against Aston Villa (a 2-2 draw) and Liverpool (a 1-2 loss) have cooled things considerably. The Liverpool defeat was particularly costly, Brentford conceded twice and never looked likely to find an equalizer despite plenty of possession. In our preview of Brentford vs Liverpool we called a Brentford double chance paired with goals at both ends, and the 1-2 result went against us since the Bees fell to defeat even though the match did produce enough goals to cover the BTTS side of things.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Hull and Brentford have no recent competitive meetings on record ahead of this fixture, so there’s no head-to-head trend to lean on for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hull vs Brentford stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Brentford the favourite
- Moneyline Hull 5.00 | Brentford 1.67
- Draw 3.80
The market puts Brentford at roughly 60% to win once the margin is stripped out, with Hull sitting near 20% and the draw hovering around 26%. That lines up with what we see on paper: Brentford have the better squad and higher league position, but their recent form against decent opposition hasn’t matched those numbers. We’d treat the short Brentford price with some caution and look for value elsewhere, perhaps in the goals markets, rather than backing the favourite outright at this line.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hull possible starting eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: Lewie Coyle, John Egan, Semi Ajayi, Ryan Giles
- MF: Regan Slater, Matt Crooks, Sorba Thomas, Hidemasa Morita, Elliot Stroud
- FW: Mohamed Belloumi
Jakirovic sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that’s carried Hull’s recent games, with Slater and Crooks shielding the back four while Thomas and Stroud look to stretch Brentford’s full-backs. Belloumi leads the line and remains Hull’s most direct route to goal given his shot and goal numbers over the last two matches.
Brentford possible starting eleven
- GK: Caoimhin Kelleher
- DF: Michael Kayode, Kristoffer Ajer, Sepp van den Berg, El Hadji Malick Diouf
- MF: Vitaly Janelt, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Mathias Jensen, Keane Lewis-Potter, Jaidon Anthony
- FW: Igor Thiago
Keith Andrews also sets up in a 4-2-3-1, with Janelt and Yarmoliuk holding the base in front of the defence. Both picked up cards and a red between them recently, so discipline will be worth watching again here. Thiago spearheads the attack and has been involved in build-up play even without scoring himself across his last two starts.
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Hull. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict a tight, scrappy afternoon at MKM Stadium that leans slightly Brentford’s way without being the comfortable away win the bookmakers’ percentages suggest. Both sides have struggled to find the net consistently, both have conceded regularly, and Brentford’s recent discipline issues give Hull a route into the game even if they stay the underdog on paper. Our call is Brentford Double Chance combined with both teams to score, a result somewhere around 1-1 or 2-1 to the visitors wouldn’t surprise anyone on our desk. To be honest, backing Brentford to win comfortably feels like a step too far given how they’ve looked against Villa and Liverpool lately.
