Levi Rothermund
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Hoffenheim sit bottom of the Europa League table with nothing to show after two rounds, while Lyon have banked six points and look comfortable mid-table. That gap tells a story on paper, but Hoffenheim’s own attack has not gone quiet lately, even as their defense keeps leaking goals at an alarming rate. Interestingly, these two sides met in this exact competition back in the 2024/25 league phase and shared a 2-2 draw, so there is at least some recent familiarity between the clubs despite the current gulf in form.
Keep an eye on Andrej Kramarić for Hoffenheim. He’s not filling the scoresheet lately, but his movement still creates space others exploit. On the Lyon side, Pavel Šulc has been directly involved in two goals across his last three appearances and tends to drift into dangerous pockets between the lines.
Hot stat: Lyon have scored in every one of their last five matches across competitions, while Hoffenheim have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five outings. That combination alone points toward goals flying in at both ends on matchday.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Prezero Arena, Sinsheim |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Hoffenheim vs Lyon prediction
We’re leaning toward Lyon avoiding defeat here, and honestly the value looks better on Lyon to win or draw rather than backing them outright. Hoffenheim have lost three of their last four matches and sit without a single point in this very competition, conceding five goals across just two league phase games. Lyon, on the other hand, arrive on the back of three wins from four and have already beaten sides like Crystal Palace and Anderlecht away from home this term.
Hoffenheim’s fouling numbers (56 across five games against Lyon’s 22) and their shaky backline suggest set pieces could matter. Lyon average far better pass accuracy too, over 71% compared to Hoffenheim’s roughly 81% raw figure skewed by possession spells that rarely translate into clean chances. Maybe Hoffenheim control spells of the ball, but Lyon look sharper when it counts, and that discipline gap could decide a tight game.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lyon Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Hoffenheim’s last outing ended in a 2-1 win over Borussia Monchengladbach, snapping a run of four straight defeats against Besiktas, Hamburger SV, Paderborn and OFI Crete. In our preview of Borussia Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim we backed the home attack to keep scoring and both sides to find the net over 2.5 goals, and the 2-1 scoreline delivered on every part of that call. Before that win though, the pattern was grim: three losses on the bounce, conceding multiple goals each time. Their defense has simply not settled, shipping goals even when the attack clicks.
Lyon meanwhile beat Nice 2-1 in their most recent match, continuing a strong recent stretch. We previewed Lyon vs Nice and called a home win with goals at both ends, landing close to our suggested 2-1 scoreline, and the result confirmed it. Before that, Lyon beat Crystal Palace 3-2 and thrashed Rennes 4-0, only dropping points in a narrow 1-2 loss to Lens. Four wins in their last five says plenty about where this side is heading.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Hoffenheim | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Hoffenheim vs Lyon stats page for more info.
Hoffenheim. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Hoffenheim the favourite
- Moneyline Hoffenheim 2.03 | Lyon 3.28
- Draw 3.90
Bookmakers lean toward Hoffenheim at home, giving them roughly 47% implied probability against Lyon’s 29%, with the draw sitting around 24%. We think that’s a touch generous toward the hosts given Lyon’s superior league phase position and recent run of results. Home advantage counts for something, sure, but Hoffenheim’s defensive numbers don’t justify being clear favorites here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hoffenheim possible starting eleven
- GK: Oliver Baumann
- DF: Ozan Kabak, Robin Hranáč, Koki Machida, Vladimír Coufal
- MF: Leon Avdullahu, Wouter Burger, Andrej Kramarić
- FW: Fisnik Asllani, Bambasé Conté, Adam Daghim
Ilzer’s men should line up in their usual 4-2-3-1. Conté has been the standout attacking threat with two goals in his last four, and Asllani’s shot volume makes him a constant presence up top. The back four has looked uneasy lately, so expect Kabak and Hranáč to face plenty of pressure.
Lyon possible starting eleven
- GK: Dominik Greif
- DF: Abner Vinicius, Ruben Kluivert, Felix Bacher, Zachary Athekame
- MF: Tyler Morton, Corentin Tolisso, Pavel Šulc, Keito Nakamura
- FW: Ernest Nuamah, Tanner Tessmann
Fonseca tends to favor a 3-4-2-1 shape, though we’ve simplified the back line here based on appearance counts. Šulc and Nuamah both carry goal threat and have combined for several assists between them recently. Nakamura’s playmaking from midfield could be the difference if Hoffenheim sit deep.
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Lyon. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Lyon edge this one, or at worst leave Sinsheim with a point. Their form curve points upward while Hoffenheim’s defense has become a genuine liability, conceding in nearly every match this autumn. Goals look nearly certain given both attacks have found the net consistently, so our main lean stays Lyon Double Chance combined with both teams scoring and over 2.5 total goals. A 1-2 or 2-2 finish wouldn’t surprise us at all.
