Alex MacQuoid
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Groningen welcome a PEC Zwolle side that looks properly rattled right now, and honestly it’s hard to see much standing in the home team’s way here. Zwolle sit dead last with just four points from six games, and they arrive off the back of a 0-7 humiliation against Feyenoord that will have left scars. Groningen aren’t exactly flying either, sat ninth with a mixed run of results, but at home against a team this fragile defensively, the gap in confidence alone might be decisive. One thing worth flagging before kickoff: these two clubs have met four times in the last two seasons and not once has either side won by more than two goals, so the recent h2h record doesn’t fully match the current form gap.
Keep an eye on Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson up top for Groningen, he’s netted twice in his last four appearances and tends to get the better of static back lines like the one Zwolle have been fielding. On the other side, Koen Kostons remains Zwolle’s one genuine attacking threat with three goals in four games, he’s basically their only source of goals right now and if he doesn’t fire, Zwolle look toothless.
Hot stat: PEC Zwolle have shipped 7 goals in a single match to Feyenoord just five days before this fixture, the heaviest defeat of their season and a number that says everything about where their defense currently stands.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eredivisie 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle prediction
We think Groningen win this one and probably by more than a single goal. Zwolle have lost three of their last five and conceded 17 goals in six league games this season, that’s a defense leaking almost three a match on average. Groningen’s own attack has been inconsistent (they’ve scored in every game bar one over the same stretch) but against opposition this porous, we’d back them to find the net multiple times. The market price around 1.60-1.66 for the home win looks fair rather than generous, so there’s more value hunting in the goals markets than the straight moneyline here, honestly.
Style-wise, both teams run a 4-2-3-1 and neither is especially physical, Groningen average 28 fouls per game across their last five while Zwolle sit closer to 50, a huge gap that suggests Zwolle players are constantly chasing the ball rather than dictating tempo. Groningen also edge the passing numbers (72% completion territory vs a noticeably lower figure for Zwolle), which lines up with what we’d expect: Groningen should control possession for long stretches and Zwolle will likely sit deeper and try to break on the counter, not that it’s worked for them lately.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Groningen to win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Groningen’s last five reads win, loss, loss, draw, draw, a run that’s kept them mid-table but hasn’t shown much consistency. The 4-1 thumping of Den Haag stands out as the high point, but back-to-back losses to PSV (1-5) and Fortuna Sittard (2-3) exposed real defensive gaps against sharper attacking sides. Their most recent outing, a 1-1 draw with GA Eagles, was scrappy and low-quality by most accounts, Groningen struggled to create clean chances and needed a late leveler to avoid defeat. That inconsistency is the main worry heading into this one, though facing a team as poor defensively as Zwolle should paper over some of those cracks.
PEC Zwolle’s form is genuinely alarming. Loss, win, loss, draw, loss over their last five, and that solitary win came against bottom-half Heerenveen. Their most recent match was the 0-7 collapse against Feyenoord, a result that will have hammered whatever confidence remained in that dressing room. In our preview of PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord we leaned hard toward a comfortable Feyenoord win with goals, predicting something in the 3-1 or 4-1 range, and the eventual 0-7 scoreline landed that call in emphatic fashion, even bigger than we expected. Zwolle now travel into this one having conceded 17 goals across six league games, the worst defensive record in the entire division, and there’s little in their recent play suggesting that changes tonight.
🚨Check out our dedicated Groningen vs PEC Zwolle stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Groningen the favourite
- Moneyline Groningen 1.66 | PEC Zwolle 4.84
- Draw 4.12
The odds line up pretty closely with the bookmakers’ implied 58% for Groningen, and given the form disparity, we don’t think that’s overpriced at all. A price near 1.66 doesn’t scream value on the win alone, which is exactly why our lean is toward the goals markets and BTTS instead, where the numbers from both defenses point somewhere more interesting than a plain home win.
Possible Starting Lineups
Groningen possible starting eleven
- GK: Etienne Vaessen
- DF: Thijmen Blokzijl, Wouter Prins, Elvis van der Laan, Mark Csinger
- MF: Tika de Jonge, Pelle Clement, Tygo Land, Jorg Schreuders, David van der Werff
- FW: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
This is Dick Lukkien’s most-used group over the last four matches and it fits the 4-2-3-1 shape he’s leaned on all season. Willumsson leads the line as the club’s sharpest finisher right now, while Tygo Land and David van der Werff both offer goal threat from deeper positions. Vaessen has started every match in goal and racked up plenty of saves, so his form between the sticks matters a lot against a Zwolle side that can occasionally spring a counter.
PEC Zwolle possible starting eleven
- GK: Jasper Schendelaar
- DF: Simon Graves Jensen, Olivier Aertssen, Damian van der Haar, Nick Viergever
- MF: Dylan Mbayo, Tobias Sommer, Thijs Oosting, Odysseus Velanas, Gabriel Reiziger
- FW: Koen Kostons
Henry van der Vegt keeps the same 4-2-3-1 setup, and Koen Kostons stays the focal point up front, he’s the one player who’s shown he can find the net regardless of the scoreline around him. Dylan Mbayo’s three assists in four games make him Zwolle’s best creative outlet, though the back four in front of Schendelaar has been breached repeatedly and there’s little in recent games to suggest that improves against a hungrier Groningen attack.
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PEC Zwolle. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re backing Groningen here, not necessarily by a landslide but comfortably enough. Zwolle’s defense has been the worst in the league across six rounds and their attack, outside of Kostons, hasn’t shown much bite either. Groningen aren’t flawless, that 1-5 loss to PSV and the 1-1 draw with GA Eagles prove they can be got at, but against a team leaking goals at this rate we’d expect them to find the net at least twice. Our call: Groningen win, both teams score, and the total climbs past 2.5. Maybe Zwolle nick one through Kostons late on, that wouldn’t shock anyone given his recent scoring, but stopping Groningen outright looks like a big ask on current form.
