Rafael Nogueira
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Porto Alegre hosts a Gre-Nal with relegation stink rather than title shine attached to it. Gremio sit 18th with 30 points, Internacional sit just one place and one point above them, and both clubs have spent the back half of the season looking over their shoulder rather than up the table. The twist here is that the home side, Gremio, arrives as the statistical underdog despite playing at Arena do Grêmio, a rare situation for a club with Renato Gaúcho pacing the touchline. Internacional’s recent form, three wins from their last five head-to-head meetings across competitions, gives Eduardo Baptista a psychological edge that the bookmakers have clearly priced in.
Watch Alan Patrick for Internacional, his set-piece delivery and link play have produced a goal and an assist across the last five matches and he remains the most creative outlet in Baptista’s midfield. For Gremio, Mathias Villasanti carries the engine room, contributing a goal and leading his side in interceptions among regular starters, a sign Renato Gaúcho leans on him both to break up play and to push forward.
The hot stat belongs to Gremio’s goalkeeper Weverton, who made 26 saves across his last four appearances, an average of 6.5 per match. That workload says plenty about how often Gremio’s defense gets exposed, even in matches where the scoreline stays respectable.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:30 CEST |
Gremio vs Internacional prediction
We predict Internacional to leave Porto Alegre unbeaten, and Draw No Bet on the visitors is where we put our money. Gremio have not won a single match in their last four outings, a run containing two draws and two losses, while Internacional picked up two wins from their last three. The head-to-head series also skews Internacional’s way recently, including a 3-1 away win earlier this year. Perhaps home advantage buys Gremio a point, but backing them to win outright asks too much of a side that cannot find three consecutive points right now.
Style-wise, Gremio rack up more fouls (56 to Internacional’s 44 across the last five matches) and more yellow cards (13 to 11), a pattern that fits a team chasing games from behind and pressing without the final-third quality to show for it. Gremio also out-shoot Internacional heavily (52 attempts to 34) yet both sides have scored only four goals apiece in that stretch, which tells us Gremio’s volume is not translating into clean chances. Internacional’s compact approach under Baptista, fewer fouls, tighter structure, should frustrate a Gremio side that overcommits numbers forward without the cutting edge to punish it.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Internacional to win either half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Gremio’s last four results read draw, draw, loss, loss, a sequence that explains their 0% win rate in the last 30 days. Their most recent outing against Remo ended 1-1, a result that kept them unbeaten but offered little going forward. In our preview of Remo vs Gremio we called Gremio to stay unbeaten against a Remo side with no recent form, and the 1-1 draw backed that read, even though the goal-heavy side markets we paired it with never materialized. Before that, a 0-0 draw with Palmeiras showed defensive discipline, but a 2-3 loss to Botafogo and a 1-2 defeat to Vasco exposed the same leaky back line that has conceded in bunches all year.
Internacional head into this one in noticeably better shape, winning two of their last three matches and carrying a 67% win rate over the last 30 days. Their most recent game produced a 2-1 win over Corinthians Paulista, a result built on Johan Carbonero and Vitinho both finding the net. In our preview of Internacional vs Corinthians Paulista we called a controlled home win through Draw No Bet, and the 2-1 scoreline delivered exactly that. Before that, Internacional lost 0-1 to Sao Paulo but bounced back with a 2-1 win over Chapecoense, a pattern of answering setbacks quickly that bodes well heading into Porto Alegre.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Gremio | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (combined, last 9 meetings) | 11 | 10 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Gremio vs Internacional stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Internacional the favourite
- Moneyline Gremio 2.90 | Internacional 2.30
- Draw 3.35
The market mirrors the bookmakers’ own averages, Internacional at 39% against Gremio’s 35%, with the draw trailing at 26%. That gap, roughly five points in implied probability, lines up with the form table rather than the venue. Gremio’s home comfort keeps the draw live, but we see little in their last month to justify treating them as outright favourites despite hosting.
Gremio. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Gremio possible starting eleven
- GK: Weverton Pereira da Silva
- DF: Wagner Leonardo, João Pedro, Walter Kannemann, Marcos Rocha
- MF: Mathias Villasanti, Danilo Barbosa da Silva, Filip Krovinović
- FW: Tetê, Cristian Pavón, Martin Braithwaite
Renato Gaúcho has leaned on the 4-2-3-1 in his last five matches, and the personnel above reflects the most-used names across that stretch. Villasanti sits deepest and dictates tempo, while Braithwaite leads the line with Tetê and Pavón rotating wide. Watch Krovinović’s set-piece involvement, he has taken free kicks regularly without finding the net yet.
Internacional possible starting eleven
- GK: Anthoni Spier Souza
- DF: Gabriel Mercado, Bruno Gomes, Alexandro Bernabéi, José Carlos Ferreira Júnior
- MF: Thiago Maia, Alan Patrick, Paulo Lucas Santos de Paula, Johan Carbonero, Niclas Eliasson
- FW: Vitinho
Baptista’s 4-1-4-1 shape puts Thiago Maia as the lone holding midfielder shielding a back four that has stayed settled across the last three matches. Alan Patrick operates just ahead of him with license to roam, and Vitinho leads the line as the most direct goal threat. Carbonero’s pace on the counter should trouble a Gremio defense that keeps conceding at pace.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Internacional. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We back Internacional to avoid defeat at Arena do Grêmio, with Draw No Bet on the visitors standing out as the cleanest angle. Gremio’s winless run over the last month, paired with a defense that forced Weverton into 26 saves across four matches, points to a side struggling for control rather than one ready to snap its slump against a form Internacional team. The expected goal count stays low given both sides’ recent shot-to-goal conversion struggles, so Under 2.5 and No BTTS round out our card alongside the main pick.
