Gremio vs Cruzeiro Prediction: 18.10.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A

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Gremio sit 18th in the Brasileirao table and haven’t won a league match in a month, while Cruzeiro arrive in sixth spot off the back of two wins in their last three outings. Arena do Grêmio has turned into a tricky venue for Renato Gaúcho’s side this season, drawing far more often than winning, and Artur Jorge’s Cruzeiro squad has scored seven goals across their last five matches compared to Gremio’s two. That gap tells most of the story heading into Sunday’s kickoff.

Kaio Jorge has been directly involved in attacking output for Cruzeiro all season and leads their forward line in shots, while Cristian Pavón offers Gremio’s most direct outlet on the counter despite a quiet scoring run. Both players carry real weight in how this one plays out.

Hot stat: Gremio have managed just 2 goals from 36 total shots in their last five matches, a conversion rate that explains their winless month better than any table position does.

Gremio vs Cruzeiro prediction

We predict Cruzeiro to leave Porto Alegre unbeaten, and backing them on the Draw No Bet line looks like the sharpest way into this market. Gremio haven’t won in five, sitting on three draws and two losses in that stretch, and their home form this year has produced more stalemates than victories. Cruzeiro, by contrast, have won three of their last five and carry a higher goal output in almost every attacking category.

Gremio’s defense has been disciplined without being dominant, conceding through set pieces and transitions rather than open play, while their attack has struggled to turn 36 shots into more than two goals across five matches. Cruzeeiro’s fouls and cards numbers run noticeably lower than Gremio’s, suggesting a side that controls tempo through possession rather than physical pressure, backed by a passing accuracy figure well above Gremio’s own. That control, paired with Cruzeiro’s superior shot volume, tilts this fixture their way even away from home.

Team Analysis

Gremio’s last match ended 1-1 against Internacional, extending a run without a win to five league games, three of them draws. Before that they drew 1-1 with Remo and 0-0 with Palmeiras, either side of losses to Botafogo (2-3) and Vasco (1-2). The pattern shows a team that defends reasonably but can’t find a final pass, a problem their 2-goal tally in five matches confirms. In our preview of Gremio vs Internacional we backed the visitors to avoid defeat through Draw No Bet, and the 1-1 scoreline delivered exactly that outcome.

Cruzeiro’s last outing brought a 2-4 loss away to Bragantino, snapping a two-match winning run that included a 2-0 win over Sao Paulo and a 3-1 win against Vitoria. Despite the defeat, Cruzeiro’s underlying shot numbers and goal involvement across the squad, led by Kaio Jorge and Matheus Pereira, stayed strong, and they still rank sixth in the table with a positive goal difference. In our preview of Bragantino vs Cruzeiro we called a Cruzeiro win or draw as the stronger side of that market, and the eventual 4-2 loss went against that primary call.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Gremio vs Cruzeiro stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Cruzeiro the favourite

• Moneyline Gremio 2.89 | Cruzeiro 2.32
• Draw 3.49

Bookmakers lean toward Cruzeiro at roughly 41% implied probability against Gremio’s 33%, a gap that matches the form and table-position difference between the two sides. The draw price above 3.40 across multiple books reflects how often this fixture has ended level in recent seasons, and given Gremio’s draw-heavy recent record, that price carries some appeal as a secondary angle alongside the main Cruzeiro Draw No Bet pick.

Possible Starting Lineups

Gremio possible starting eleven

Renato Gaúcho’s 4-2-3-1 keeps Villasanti and Danilo Barbosa shielding the back four while Krovinović, Tetê and Pavón rotate behind Braithwaite. Pavón remains the player most likely to create something from nothing against a well-organized Cruzeiro defense.

Cruzeiro possible starting eleven

Artur Jorge’s own 4-2-3-1 relies on Gerson’s passing range from deep and Matheus Pereira’s link play, feeding Kaio Jorge and Keny Arroyo in the final third. Both forwards have combined for several goal contributions in the last five matches and look the biggest threat on the night.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Gremio’s winless month at home, paired with an attack that can’t convert chances, gives Cruzeiro a real path to a result in Porto Alegre. Our team leans Cruzeiro Draw No Bet as the core pick, with Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes rounding out the card given both sides’ recent scoring patterns. To be hones, Gremio’s defensive discipline could keep this tighter than the table suggests, but Cruzeiro’s superior shot volume and sixth-place form make them the value side of this fixture.

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