Liam Duckstein
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Greece host Serbia in Volos on Monday night in a League A Group 2 fixture that still carries real weight. Greece sit third in the group on eight points, two places and two points ahead of a Serbia side still waiting for its first win in this campaign. The home side needs a result to stay in touch with Germany, while Serbia have nothing to lose and a lot to prove.
Two players deserve attention. Christos Tzolis gives Greece the most direct route forward, and his movement off the ball can drag defenders out of shape. On the Serbian side, Srdjan Babic has been the most dangerous defender in the recent samples, having scored and added a yellow card in his last appearance. Both men could decide how the game opens up.
Hot stat: Serbia managed only 5 total shots across their latest five matches, while Greece produced 9 in the same period. That gap points to a side that struggles to create clear openings, and it shapes our view of this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Panthessaliko Stadium, Volos |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Greece vs Serbia prediction
Greece are the clear favourites, and we agree with the market. The home side has the better shape, the deeper squad and a far healthier recent record against this opponent. Serbia have struggled to score, so a low-scoring home win fits the numbers best.
We back Greece to win and the game to stay under 3.5 goals. The moneyline price of 1.46 leaves little room, so the goals market adds the value. Greece have not been prolific, and Serbia rarely create enough to push the game into a shootout.
Greece commit fouls at a moderate rate, and their pressing is organised rather than reckless. Serbia have collected more yellow cards and conceded more free kicks in the sample, which suggests they will spend long spells defending deep. Greece hold more of the ball, with 480 passes across the latest five matches against Serbia’s 217. Expect Greece to control possession and push Serbia back, which should limit open transitions and keep the total goal count modest.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Greece to win and under 3.5 total goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Greece
Greece have won only 2 of their 9 matches this year, and the most recent run has been uneven. The latest outing was a heavy 0-7 defeat in the Netherlands, which exposed a back line that looked unsettled from the first whistle. Greece also drew 0-0 with Germany and picked up a 1-0 win over the same opponent earlier in the campaign.
In our preview of Netherlands vs Greece we called a draw, a 1-1 or 2-2 finish, and the Greece 0-7 result went against us. We expected both sides to share the spoils, but the Dutch attack punished every mistake. Greece have to tighten up at the back before anything else.
Serbia
Serbia have collected just one win in nine matches this year and remain without a point in the group. Their latest game was a 1-3 home defeat to Germany, a result that showed the same defensive gaps that have appeared throughout the campaign. Serbia have also lost heavily in recent meetings with the Netherlands.
In our preview of Serbia vs Germany we called a narrow Germany win, and the 1-3 result delivered it. The clean sheet did not hold, though, because Serbia found the net. Serbia still struggle to keep a strong side quiet, and that weakness will matter again on Monday.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Greece and Serbia have met once in the recent sample, and Greece took the points in that encounter.
| Statistic | Greece | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Greece vs Serbia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Greece the favourite
- Moneyline Greece 1.46 | Serbia 6.65
- Draw 4.60
The Greek price sits at 1.46 across most bookmakers, which implies a win probability of roughly 68 percent before margin. The bookmaker average gives Greece 65 percent, and we think that figure is fair. Serbia’s price of 6.65 looks generous only if their defence improves quickly, and the recent evidence says it has not. The draw at 4.60 reflects a tight game on paper, but we do not expect the home side to be held for long.
Possible Starting Lineups
Greece possible starting eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: Konstantinos Tsimikas, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Llazaros Rota
- MF: Athanasios Androutsos, Nectarios Triantis, Konstantinos Karetsas
- FW: Christos Tzolis, Vangelis Pavlidis, Fotis Ioannidis
Tzolakis takes the gloves after playing the full 90 minutes in the latest sample, while Odysseas Vlachodimos did not feature. The back four has been the most consistent unit, with Tsimikas, Mavropanos, Retsos and Rota all logging full games. Androutsos anchors the midfield, and Triantis and Karetsas offer the link play. Tzolis is the player to watch, because his pace and willingness to run in behind can stretch a tired defence. Pavlidis and Ioannidis give the front line a physical edge. The shape should be a 4-2-3-1 in theory, with the front three operating as a fluid unit.
Serbia possible starting eleven
- GK: Vanja Milinković-Savić
- DF: Srdjan Babić, Nikola Milenković, Kosta Nedeljković, Stefan Gudelj
- MF: Sergej Milinković-Savić, Dušan Tadić, Lazar Samardžić, Stefan Džodić
- FW: Mihajlo Cvetković, Andrija Živković
Vanja Milinković-Savić has been the only goalkeeper with real minutes in the sample, so he keeps the place. Babić and Milenković provide the most experienced pairing in defence, and Nedeljković adds stability on the left. Sukacev narrowly misses out after a yellow card, so Gudelj steps in. In midfield, Sergej Milinković-Savić is the key figure, and his passing range matters more than anything else in this XI. Tadić brings the creative spark, while Samardžić and Džodić add energy. Babić is the player to watch, because his set-piece threat and recent goal make him a real danger. Cvetković and Živković lead the line in a 4-4-2 that Serbia have used often in the sample.
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Serbia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict a controlled Greek win, perhaps 1-0 or 2-0, with Serbia struggling to build attacks through the middle. Greece have the better share of possession and the stronger back line on paper, even if their recent defensive record is shaky. Serbia have shown little end product and have leaked goals in every recent outing. To be honest, the home side has the easier route to goal here.
Read also: Greece vs Serbia Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated November 2026)
Read also: Greece vs Serbia: Predicted Line-ups, Confirmed Absentees & Team News
