Levi Rothermund
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Greece sit top of Group 2 with seven points from three games, a position nobody outside Athens expected when the draw was made. Germany, by contrast, sit third on four points after stumbling against the Dutch and then losing at home to these same Greeks a few days ago. That 1-0 defeat still stings for Jürgen Klopp’s side, and Toumba Stadium now hosts a rematch that could decide who really controls this group heading into November.
The interesting wrinkle here: Greece have won this exact fixture before in the group phase, so Germany arrive as a team chasing revenge on the road rather than simply trying to protect a ranking. That storyline alone gives this match a sharper edge than a typical Tuesday night international.
Watch Christos Tzolis for Greece. He leads the squad in shots over the last five matches and has already scored once in this run, giving the hosts a direct outlet on the counter. For Germany, Florian Wirtz remains the player who can unlock a stubborn low block, carrying one goal and sharp passing numbers despite limited minutes so far this cycle.
Hot stat: Greece have scored six goals from just 50 shots across their last five matches, while Germany needed 74 shots to find the net only three times. That efficiency gap is honestly the whole story of this group so far.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Greece vs Germany prediction
We lean toward Germany winning this one, but not comfortably. The bookmakers already price them as clear favourites near 47%, and on raw quality that tracks. Germany still move the ball better, control possession deeper into opposition territory, and carry more individual threat through Wirtz and Adeyemi than Greece can match over 90 minutes.
The problem for Germany is recent history at this exact ground against this exact opponent. Greece beat them 1-0 here just days ago and sit top of the group for a reason. Our staff think a repeat German no-show in front of goal is possible, so backing them on the Asian Handicap rather than a straight moneyline feels like the smarter route. Germany -0.5 or draw no bet protects against another frustrating 1-0 shock.
Style-wise, the contrast matters. Germany foul less (50 total fouls across five matches against Greece’s 35 sounds low, but Greece play fewer total minutes of sustained pressure and pick their moments to commit). Greece pick up more yellow cards relative to their output, suggesting a scrappier, more reactive defensive setup, while Germany’s higher pass accuracy and corner count point to a team that dominates territory without always finishing the job. That mismatch between control and conversion is exactly why we expect a tight, low-scoring affair rather than a German rout.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Germany Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Greece arrive off a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, a result that cost them a clean sweep but kept them top of the table on points. They led that game at one stage before some defensive lapses let the Dutch back level late, a pattern that echoes their last-30-days profile of two wins and a draw with no losses. Before that draw, Greece beat Germany 1-0 and Serbia 2-1, so this is a team riding real momentum into a rematch rather than one just hoping to survive. In our preview of Greece vs Netherlands we leaned toward a tight, low-scoring contest built around home defensive discipline, and the 2-2 scoreline went against that read since four goals went in at Toumba.
Germany, meanwhile, bounced back from that Greece defeat with a 2-0 win over Serbia, a result that steadied the ship after a wobbly stretch of one win, one draw and one loss in their last three. Before the Serbia game, Germany lost to Greece and drew with the Netherlands, meaning their recent form carries more hesitation than the long-term win streak suggests. In our preview of Germany vs Serbia we backed Germany to win while also expecting Serbia to score, and the 2-0 result only partly delivered since Serbia never troubled the scoresheet that night.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Greece | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Greece vs Germany stats page for more info.
Greece. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Germany the favourite
- Moneyline Greece 3.40 | Germany 2.05
- Draw 3.65
Germany price in around 47% to win according to the bookmaker average, which feels fair given their squad depth but maybe a touch generous considering they just lost on this exact ground. Greece at odds near 3.40 look live for anyone backing an upset, especially with home advantage and a confident dressing room behind them. We think the draw price offers quiet value too, since both recent meetings between these sides have been one-goal affairs.
Possible Starting Lineups
Greece possible starting eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Konstantinos Tsimikas, Manolis Saliakas
- MF: Konstantinos Karetsas, Athanasios Androutsos, Dimitrios Kourbelis, Christos Zafeiris
- FW: Vangelis Pavlidis, Christos Tzolis
Tzolakis gets the nod in goal purely on save output, having actually faced shots unlike the other listed keepers. The back four picks itself from minutes played, with Tsimikas and Retsos the most reliable options across all four group games. Karetsas is the one to watch in midfield, he leads the group in shots and free kicks among the middle three and could be the creative spark Ivan Jovanovic needs. Expect a straightforward 4-4-2 that leans on compact defending and quick transitions through Tzolis and Pavlidis up top.
Germany possible starting eleven
- GK: Marc-André ter Stegen
- DF: Jonathan Tah, Yann Bisseck, Josha Vagnoman, Nathaniel Brown
- MF: Joshua Kimmich, Felix Nmecha, Florian Wirtz, Bambasé Conté
- FW: Karim Adeyemi, Younes Ebnoutalib
Ter Stegen starts on experience and actual shot-stopping numbers over Nübel and Dahmen, who barely saw action between the posts. Tah anchors a back four that has conceded little on paper despite the odd lapse against Greece. Wirtz is the player to watch, his passing numbers and the lone goal he already has in this run suggest Klopp will build the attack through him rather than around a traditional striker. Germany should set up in a 4-4-2 shape too, though expect Wirtz to drift inside and effectively create a more fluid 4-2-3-1 once the ball moves forward.
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Germany. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team sees this as closer than the odds suggest. Germany carry more raw talent, more possession, and a deeper squad, but Greece have already solved them once this group stage and sit top of the table for good reason. We expect Germany to edge the territorial battle without fully converting it, landing somewhere around a 1-1 or 1-0 finish. Backing Germany on the draw no bet line, pairing it with under 2.5 goals, captures both the quality gap and the defensive realities both sides have shown lately. Honestly, a repeat scoreline in Greece’s favour would not shock us either, given how this fixture has gone so far.
Read also: Greece vs Germany Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 2 Oct 2026
Read also: Greece vs Germany Predicted Lineups, Team News & Expected XIs
