Levi Rothermund
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Germany host the Netherlands at the Olympiastadion in Berlin on Monday night in a League A Group 2 meeting that could shape the group table. The Dutch sit top with 11 points from five games, while Germany are second on eight. A win gives either side a real grip on qualification for the knockout phase.
Jürgen Klopp takes charge of the home side, and Xavi leads the visitors. Both coaches favour possession, so we expect a fight in midfield rather than a quick, open game. Honestly, that makes this one harder to call than the odds suggest.
Florian Wirtz is the man to watch for Germany. He scored in his latest appearance and created chances from the half spaces, so he could again be the difference between the sides. For the Netherlands, Tijjani Reijnders deserves attention. He scored three times in his latest outing and has the energy to break forward from midfield.
Hot stat: The Netherlands have scored 14 goals in five Nations League games, the most in the group, and they have not lost once. That attacking record gives them every reason to travel with confidence.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Olympiastadion, Berlin |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Germany vs Netherlands prediction
The best value sits in the draw. Bookmakers price Germany as the clear favourite at around 1.86, but the Dutch have stayed unbeaten and their attack has been far sharper. The two sides also played out a 1-1 draw earlier in this campaign, which suggests a tight contest.
We think the draw at 3.90 or better offers more value than a straight home win. Germany have struggled to keep clean sheets in their recent matches, so a stalemate needs both defences to hold. That is the part we doubt, maybe more than the bookmakers do.
Style matters here. Germany committed 11 fouls across their latest five matches against five for the Netherlands, and they picked up one yellow card. The Dutch made 543 passes in the same span against 844 for Germany, so Germany will own more of the ball. Germany also took 22 shots compared to 17 for the Netherlands. Still, the Dutch press has produced 10 interceptions, which could disrupt Germany’s build-up play and keep the match open.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Germany
Germany have won ten of their last fifteen matches, with three defeats and two draws. Their most recent result was a 3-1 win over Serbia, a match where they controlled possession and turned pressure into goals. The win matters because Germany have been inconsistent against stronger sides, and this result showed a more ruthless edge.
In our preview of Serbia vs Germany we called a narrow Germany win, and the 3-1 result delivered it. The clean sheet angle did not land, though, since Serbia found the net.
Netherlands
The Netherlands have collected eight wins, five draws, and two defeats over their last fifteen results. Their latest match ended in a 7-0 win over Greece, the kind of result that highlights how dangerous their front line can be when it clicks. Crysencio Summerville and Jurriën Timber both found the net in recent matches, which gives the Dutch more than one route to goal.
In our preview of Netherlands vs Greece we backed a draw, and the 7-0 win went against us. We expected a tight finish, yet the Dutch were far more clinical than we anticipated.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Germany | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 3 |
The table sums goals across the three played meetings: a 1-1 draw in this campaign, a 1-0 Germany win and a 2-2 draw in the 2024/25 Nations League.
🚨Check out our dedicated Germany vs Netherlands stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Germany the favourite
- Moneyline Germany 1.80 to 1.93 | Netherlands 3.40 to 3.66
- Draw 3.85 to 4.15
Germany carry the shortest prices, which reflects their home advantage and a 50 percent implied chance from the market average. The Netherlands are priced near 27 percent, and that feels fair given their recent scoring form. We see the draw as the most reasonable alternative, because the price sits close to the level we would expect for a cagey match between two organised sides.
Possible Starting Lineups
Germany possible starting eleven
- GK: Marc-André ter Stegen
- DF: Maximilian Mittelstädt, Jonathan Tah, Malick Thiaw, Philipp Treu, Ridle Baku
- MF: Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlović, Florian Wirtz
- FW: Kai Havertz, Niclas Füllkrug
This group reflects the players who logged the most minutes in recent matches. Ter Stegen started every game and remains the first choice in goal. Germany set up in a 5-3-2 shape, which gives them width through Mittelstädt and Treu and a solid three-man midfield with Kimmich and Pavlović. Wirtz sits behind the front two and carries the creative load. Brajan Gruda could come in if Klopp wants more energy from the bench.
Netherlands possible starting eleven
- GK: Bart Verbruggen
- DF: Denzel Dumfries, Micky van de Ven, Jan Paul van Hecke, Jurriën Timber
- MF: Frenkie de Jong, Joey Veerman, Tijjani Reijnders, Teun Koopmeiners, Crysencio Summerville
- FW: Donyell Malen
Xavi is likely to field a 4-2-3-1 with De Jong and Veerman protecting the back line. Reijnders and Koopmeiners provide link play, while Summerville offers pace on the right. Malen leads the line and benefits from the service of the wide men. Cody Gakpo could come off the bench, and maybe that is where the Dutch find their late winner.
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Germany. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We think this match ends level. Germany have the home crowd and the bigger share of possession, but the Netherlands have scored more and kept their unbeaten run intact. Both sides have shown they can score, so we expect both teams to find the net.
Our final call is a draw with both teams scoring, and we would not be surprised by a 2-2 finish given the goals already scored in this group.
Read also: Germany vs Netherlands Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated November 2026)
Read also: Predicted Lineups: Germany vs Netherlands – Expected XIs and Team News
