Liam Duckstein
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Genoa welcome Venezia to Luigi Ferraris in a match that looks far more like a relegation six-pointer than a mid-October fixture should. Both sides sit in the bottom three of the table, both coaches are feeling the heat already, and neither team has found a settled defensive shape through seven rounds. The quirky detail here is that despite their lowly positions, neither club has actually been short of chances created, their results simply have not matched the underlying numbers.
Daniele De Rossi needs a response at home after a bruising 0-2 defeat to Roma, while Davide Nicola will try to build on a surprise 1-0 win over Napoli, the first sign of life after a rough run of results. We predict this one stays tight, with both managers more concerned about not losing than chasing a win outright.
Keep an eye on Milutin Osmajić, who has combined for a goal and an assist across Genoa’s last two matches and looks like the club’s only reliable attacking outlet right now. On the other side, Akor Adams has been Venezia’s most dangerous forward, scoring the winner against Napoli and racking up ten shots across his last two appearances, a volume no teammate comes close to matching.
Hot stat: Venezia have shipped a league-high 16 goals in just seven Serie A matches this season, a number that stands out even in a division where most bottom-half sides are struggling defensively.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Luigi Ferraris, Genoa |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Genoa vs Venezia prediction
We lean toward Genoa getting the job done at home, but not by a wide margin. Home advantage matters a lot for a side as fragile as Genoa currently looks, and Venezia’s away form has given opponents plenty of hope this season given they have shipped goals at an alarming rate on the road too.
Both teams have struggled to score heavily in their last five outings, with combined goal totals from recent matches sitting remarkably low for two sides near the bottom of the table. That tells us a cagey, low-event game is more likely than an end-to-end shootout, despite the league-wide goal difference numbers suggesting otherwise.
Genoa have picked up 18 fouls and 8 yellow cards across their last five matches compared to Venezia’s 13 fouls and only 4 bookings, a gap that hints at Genoa playing a more physical, interruption-heavy style at home. Venezia, by contrast, have completed far more passes in recent matches, suggesting they try to control tempo even when results have not followed. That passing patience could actually work against them here, since Genoa thrive when matches turn scrappy and set-piece heavy.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Milutin Osmajić to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Genoa’s last match ended in a 0-2 home-turned-away setback against Roma, a game where the defense once again looked exposed against a sharper attacking unit. Before that, Genoa actually won 2-1 against Fiorentina, showing flashes of quality going forward even if consistency remains the problem. In our preview of Roma vs Genoa we called a comfortable Roma win built around their attacking trio, and the 0-2 result backed that read up fully.
Venezia arrive on the back of a genuinely surprising 1-0 win over Napoli, snapping a losing run that had stretched across most of October. That victory broke a pattern, as Nicola’s side had dropped four straight matches beforehand, including a 1-3 defeat to Atalanta and a 2-4 collapse against Fiorentina. In our preview of Venezia vs Napoli we called a Napoli win with goals at both ends, and the 1-0 scoreline went against that read, giving Venezia a rare bit of momentum heading into this trip.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Genoa | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Genoa vs Venezia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Genoa the favourite
- Moneyline Genoa 2.12 | Venezia 3.55
- Draw 3.25
The market has Genoa as clear favourites at close to even-money odds, which lines up with the home advantage at Ferraris and Venezia’s poor travel record this season. The draw price sitting above 3.00 across most books suggests bookmakers expect a result either way rather than a stalemate, though our own view is that this match could easily drift toward a tight, low-scoring outcome regardless of who gets the win.
Possible Starting Lineups
Genoa possible starting eleven
- GK: Justin Bijlow
- DF: Leo Østigård, Johan Vásquez, Alessandro Marcandalli, David Puczka
- MF: Morten Frendrup, Mikael Ellertsson, Junior Messias, Stephan El Shaarawy, Samuel Wiafe
- FW: Milutin Osmajić
De Rossi has leaned on a 4-2-3-1 across his last five matches, and the personnel picking itself out is based on who has actually logged minutes. Bijlow has started every recent game in goal, while Østigård and Vásquez have held down the center-back spots throughout. Osmajić remains the player to watch up front given his direct involvement in Genoa’s last two goals.
Venezia possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Stankovic
- DF: Redouane Halhal, Juan Jesus, Antoine Hainaut
- MF: Matias Moreno, Richie Sagrado, Enrique Pérez Muñoz, Simon Sohm, Toma Bašić, John Yeboah
- FW: Akor Adams
Nicola’s 3-4-2-1 shape relies heavily on a settled back three, with Halhal, Juan Jesus and Hainaut all playing full minutes in both of their recent matches. Pérez Muñoz and Sohm anchor the midfield, while Adams leads the line as the one attacker consistently getting on the scoresheet. His movement will be the main thing Genoa’s defenders need to track closely.
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Venezia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Genoa to edge this one, perhaps by a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline, given the home advantage and Venezia’s struggles away from their own ground. Both defenses have looked shaky all season, but recent scoring numbers from both sides point to a cagier match than their league standings might suggest. To be honest, Venezia’s win over Napoli gives them a confidence boost, but one home win and a defensive record that has leaked 16 goals already tell us the road trip to Ferraris comes at the wrong time for them. Our lean stays with Genoa to win, Under 2.5 total goals, and BTTS No as the safer angle, with Osmajić anytime goalscorer as the value pick for those chasing better odds.
