Liam Duckstein
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Roma welcome Genoa to the Stadio Olimpico on a Saturday night with Gian Piero Gasperini’s side sitting third in the table, just two points off top spot. Genoa, by contrast, are mired in the bottom three under Daniele De Rossi, their former midfield lieutenant at Roma who now finds himself on the opposite touchline. There is a quiet subplot here: De Rossi spent years in Roma’s colors, and facing his old club with Genoa desperate for points away from home adds a personal edge that the league table alone does not capture.
Roma arrive off the back of a wild 3-4 defeat to Real Madrid, a scoreline that hinted at defensive cracks against top-tier opposition. Genoa, meanwhile, snapped a rough patch with a 2-1 win over Fiorentina last weekend, their first league win in over a month. Both clubs enter this one with momentum pulling in different directions.
Paulo Dybala remains the player Roma fans watch closest. His link play behind the striker has produced two assists in three matches and he still ranks among the squad’s most creative outlets under Gasperini’s 3-4-2-1 shape. On the Genoa side, Milutin Osmajić has quietly been their most dangerous weapon, scoring twice in his last two appearances and giving De Rossi a genuine out-ball up front.
Hot stat: Roma have fired 41 shots across their last five matches compared to Genoa’s 22, almost double the output, yet the Giallorossi have only converted five of them into goals. That shot-to-goal ratio is worth tracking, Roma create plenty but have not always been clinical in front of goal lately.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Roma vs Genoa prediction
We predict Roma to win this one, and comfortably. The bookmakers agree, pricing the hosts around 1.44 to 1.48, which lines up with a side that has lost just once at home all season and faces a Genoa team sitting 18th with only four points from six games. Our value angle here is not the straight win though, it is Roma to win combined with over 2.5 total goals. Roma’s attack has scored 14 goals in six league matches, and Genoa’s defense has shipped 11 in the same span. Perhaps the only thing keeping this from being a one-sided market is Roma’s recent habit of drawing games they should win, three draws in their last five outings suggest a side capable of taking its foot off the gas.
Stylistically these two clubs differ. Roma average close to 7.4 fouls and nearly two yellow cards per game, physical and compact under Gasperini, with completed-pass numbers around 83 percent showing control in build-up. Genoa foul less, around 5 per game, but their pass accuracy sits lower near 81 percent, a sign they concede possession more readily and invite pressure. That gap in control should let Roma dictate tempo for long stretches, which plays into a goal-heavy scoreline rather than a cagey one.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Roma to win and Both Teams to Score Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Roma’s last match was a 3-4 defeat to Real Madrid, a game where they matched the European heavyweights for spells before late defensive lapses cost them. Before that, draws against Como (0-0) and Inter (2-2) show a side capable of frustrating strong opponents but struggling to close games out, while a 2-0 win over Torino remains their cleanest performance of the month. In our preview of Roma vs Real Madrid we backed the Spanish side to edge it by a single goal while also liking the under 2.5 line as a hedge, and the 3-4 result delivered on the narrow margin but blew straight through the goals line, so that combined call went against us overall.
Genoa’s most recent outing produced a 2-1 win over Fiorentina, their first league success in weeks and a welcome lift for De Rossi. Prior results were shakier, a 0-2 loss to Rapid Bucuresti, a 1-2 defeat to Parma, a 1-0 win over SudTirol and a 1-1 draw with Frosinone paint a picture of a team oscillating between promising and porous. In our preview of Genoa vs Fiorentina we leaned toward Fiorentina avoiding defeat with goals at both ends, and the 2-1 scoreline went against that call since Genoa took all three points outright, though the BTTS angle we mentioned did land.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Roma vs Genoa stats page for more info.
Genoa. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Roma the favourite
- Moneyline Roma 1.48 | Genoa 6.91
- Draw 4.64
The market leaves little doubt here. Roma are priced as heavy favourites across every major bookmaker, with odds rarely climbing above 1.58 even at the most generous books. That reflects the gap in form and table position rather than any single statistical quirk, Roma sit third with 14 points while Genoa prop up the relegation zone with four. We see the Roma price as fair rather than inflated, the underlying shot and goal data back up what the odds suggest.
Possible Starting Lineups
Roma possible starting eleven
- GK: Pierluigi Gollini
- DF: Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mario Hermoso
- MF: Wesley Vinícius, Manu Koné, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Devyne Rensch
- FW: Paulo Dybala, Matias Soulé, Donyell Malen
Gasperini’s preferred 3-4-2-1 leans on a settled back three of Mancini, Ndicka and Hermoso, with Wesley and Rensch providing width as wing-backs. Dybala and Soulé operate just behind Malen, who has two goals in his last three outings and looks the sharpest finisher available. Koné’s goal threat from midfield gives this side an extra attacking layer Genoa will need to track.
Genoa possible starting eleven
- GK: Justin Bijlow
- DF: Stefano Sabelli, Leo Østigård, Alessandro Marcandalli, Sebastian Otoa
- MF: Morten Frendrup, Mikael Ellertsson
- FW: Tommaso Baldanzi, Hamed Junior Traorè, Stephan El Shaarawy, Milutin Osmajić
De Rossi’s 4-2-3-1 keeps Frendrup and Ellertsson shielding a back four that has leaked goals in bunches this season. Baldanzi, Traorè and El Shaarawy rotate behind Osmajić, who has scored twice in his last two appearances and remains Genoa’s best hope of troubling Roma’s defensive line.
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Roma. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Roma to win this at home, likely by a scoreline around 2-1 or 3-1. Genoa have shown they can score, Osmajić’s recent form proves that, but their defense has given up goals at a rate that should suit Roma’s attacking trio of Dybala, Soulé and Malen. The under-the-radar draw-heavy spell Roma went through against Como and Inter looked more like fatigue against stronger opponents than a genuine dip in quality, and Genoa do not carry the same threat Real Madrid or Inter posed. Our strongest lean stays with Roma to win and both teams to score, backed by over 2.5 total goals given how open both defenses have looked lately.
