Levi Rothermund
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Freiburg welcome Jablonec to the Europa-Park-Stadion for a League Phase fixture that, on paper, looks heavily one-sided. The Bundesliga side arrive off the back of five wins from six and a goal difference that keeps climbing, while Jablonec travel to Germany having built their recent results on a string of 1-0 wins rather than attacking fireworks. That contrast, a team that scores freely against one that wins narrowly, is the real story behind this match. Schuster’s men have won four of their last five games and only dropped points once in that run, a draw against Eintracht Frankfurt. Jablonec, meanwhile, have been efficient without being spectacular domestically, which could make for an awkward night if they sit deep and frustrate the hosts early.
Watch Vincenzo Grifo closely. He has an assist and a free kick conversion in his last two outings and remains Freiburg’s chief creator from wide areas. On the other side, Derry Lionel Scherhant has been involved directly in two goals across his last two appearances and carries a real goal threat up front. For Jablonec, Saidou Alioum Moubarak has produced six shots and an assist in his last two matches, easily their most active attacker, with Garang Mawien Kuol also chipping in a goal recently.
Hot stat: Jablonec have won three of their last five matches by the exact same 1-0 scoreline, a pattern that says plenty about their cautious, low-event style on the road. Freiburg, by contrast, scored five without reply against Borussia Monchengladbach just a few weeks back, a gap in output that should worry the visitors.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Freiburg vs Jablonec prediction
We think Freiburg win this one, and probably without conceding. The bookmakers have them around 1.26 to 1.29 to win outright, which looks tight for a side scoring at this rate against a Czech outfit that has already lost 0-2 to Sparta Prague and drawn 1-1 with Zlin domestically this season. Freiburg to win to nil feels like the better value angle than a straight moneyline bet at such short odds.
Style-wise, both sides are disciplined, each committing 22 fouls across their last five games, so this shouldn’t turn ugly. Freiburg’s pass accuracy numbers and shot volume (32 shots in five matches) point to control and territory, while Jablonec’s higher raw pass figures come mostly from sitting back and circulating possession in deeper zones rather than creating danger. That defensive shape, three 1-0 wins in their last five, suggests they will try to stay compact rather than chase the game early, which plays into Freiburg’s hands if the hosts stay patient.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Freiburg to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Freiburg’s form has been excellent lately, four wins and a draw across their last five fixtures, with only a single loss further back in that stretch. The most recent result was a 2-1 win over Schalke 04, a game where they controlled large spells but let a late goal back in. In our preview of Freiburg vs Schalke 04 we called for a comfortable win margin of two goals or more, something around 2-0 or 3-1, and the eventual 2-1 scoreline came up short of that gap even though Freiburg did collect the points. Before that they put five past Gladbach and four past Luzern, so the underlying scoring form remains strong regardless of that one tighter finish.
Jablonec’s picture is more mixed. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, with that single defeat coming 0-2 against Sparta Prague, their toughest domestic test in that run. Their most recent match was a 1-0 win over Brno, continuing the low-scoring pattern that has defined their autumn. They have managed clean sheets in three of their last five outings, which at least suggests some defensive organisation they can lean on away from home, even if their attacking returns have been modest.
🚨Check out our dedicated Freiburg vs Jablonec stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Freiburg the favourite
- Moneyline Freiburg 1.29 | Jablonec 9.00
- Draw 5.60
The gap between the two sides is obvious just from the numbers. Freiburg sit around 1.26 to 1.29 across most books, while Jablonec drift out past 7.00 and even above 11.00 with some bookmakers, a huge spread that suggests oddsmakers see very little chance of an upset. Honestly, that price on Jablonec looks fair given their recent domestic defeat to a stronger side like Sparta and their generally conservative approach in Europe so far.
Possible Starting Lineups
Freiburg possible starting eleven
- GK: Mio Backhaus
- DF: Philipp Lienhart, Matthias Ginter, Christian Günter
- MF: Lukas Kübler, Jordy Makengo, Maximilian Eggestein, Yannick Engelhardt
- FW: Vincenzo Grifo, Igor Matanovic, Derry Lionel Scherhant
Schuster should stick with the 3-4-3 shape that has served Freiburg well lately. Kübler and Makengo push high as wingbacks to stretch Jablonec’s back line, while Eggestein, who scored in his last outing, anchors things centrally alongside Engelhardt. Grifo and Scherhant up front are the two to watch, both directly involved in goals recently.
Jablonec possible starting eleven
- GK: Jan Hanus
- DF: Martin Cedidla, Filip Novák, Dusan Pavlovic, Eduard Sobol
- MF: Vakhtang TChanturishvili, Richard Sedláček, Dominik Holly, Sebastian Nebyla
- FW: Garang Mawien Kuol, Antonín Růsek
Kozel’s 4-4-1-1 setup leans on a compact midfield four to limit space between the lines, with Sedláček dictating tempo from deep given his heavy passing numbers. Up top, Garang Mawien Kuol and Růsek will need service to trouble a well-organised Freiburg backline, and both have shown they can finish when chances come their way.
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Jablonec. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our lean here is Freiburg to win and keep a clean sheet, likely somewhere around a 2-0 or 3-0 scoreline. The underlying numbers back this up pretty clearly, five goals against Gladbach, four against Luzern, and a defense that has only looked shaky in isolated moments. Jablonec’s low-event style, three 1-0 wins in their last five, could keep the first half tight, but we don’t think it holds up for 90 minutes against a side generating 32 shots across its last five games. Maybe there’s a goal conceded late if Freiburg ease off with the game already won, but backing the hosts to win to nil feels like the sharper angle than the raw moneyline price.
